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Box Office Predictions: The Devil Inside Tops Weak Weekend

Damon Houx — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:34:24 +0000

Ooh, scary. This is the first full weekend of the New Year, and like all new years, that means that the studios would rather you see their big pictures that just came out (or are expanding) than see much new. That’s because January is still considered a weak season. Yeah, you get your Taken‘s and such, but none of these pictures are thought to be blockbusters. Enter The Devil Inside.

Basically, the assumption is that people would rather do catch up than see something new. And though without a holiday, the older pictures are going to fall heavily percentage-wise, there are still people who need to play catch-up with Mission: Impossible or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Paramount has started their indie cheap movie company, and The Devil Inside hopes to follow the through the roof success of the Paranormal Activity films. This was done for practically nothing so the advertising surely outweighs the production costs. And with the Paranormal films, Paramount likely has a strategy to maximize their exposure to the audience who is interested.What they’re going to get is a strong weekend and then a complete collapse. Paramount mostly set up screenings for the night before, which is generally a sign of little faith, but with the horror market they don’t really need reviews.

Even if the film does $20 Million this weekend (it might), it’s still going to have to settle for a less than $60 Million total. The question then becomes the economics of such a picture. Studios spend upwards of a hundred million dollars to market a picture, and sometimes spend more on the selling than on the film itself – as must be the case here. The old formula was that a film has to make twice what it cost to be considered successful, but if the picture cost less than three million, and the advertising is more than ten, at what point does this formula become meaningless? Studios don’t want us to know how successful something really is, because that can lead to sharing more profits, and the numbers racket is just that. Unfortunately it’s become a very public sport where the rules of success and failure are imaginary.

Anyway, let’s look at a top five:

The Devil Inside - $16.8 Million
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - $16 Million
Sherlock Holmes – A Game of Shadows – $10 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Shipwrecked – $9.9 Million
War Horse – $8.8 Million

Next week should see a high gross for Beauty and the Beast, and then actual interesting new movies should be hitting screens. Exciting.

What are you weekend movie plans?

Box Office Predictions: You’ll Get Nothing New and Like It

Damon Houx — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 18:15:03 +0000

It’s New Year’s Eve on Saturday, which means 2012 starts Sunday and we’ll be getting a non-stop stream of Mayan apocalypse jokes about everything. For the cinemas there are two movies opening: Pariah (12/28) on four screens and The Iron Lady (12/30) on another four screens. These are qualifying runs, and it’s likely that Meryl Streep will get a nomination for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher. Shame about the movie, though. Let’s talk numbers, shall we?

With nothing new, expect positions to stay steady with many pictures getting a boost over last weekend. It’s possible that War Horse - which entered theaters on Sunday – will be the only change in the top five for the weekend over last weekend. Because of the Christmas holiday, there were more closed theaters for much of last weekend, where most stores don’t change their hours that much because of a party holiday.

That’s good news for these films, and it should mean that the numbers on almost everything are going to go up a little. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol will be at $100 Million by Friday, so it should get to $135-$145 by the end of weekend. Sherlock Holmes 2 is over $100 Million, but it probably won’t get as high a bounce.

But this better weekend probably won’t help The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Though the picture could limp to $100 Million, this isn’t the results expected. I don’t think it hurts anyone’s career, but I think it shows that The Da Vinci Code was a smarter package. It was claptrap with a beloved star. This… not so much. But then Daniel Craig is just Bond at this point. And Tintin is all about the international, for better or worse. Unless it really goes up this weekend as a word of mouth hit. Not likely.

So let’s get it over with:

Mission: Impossible 4 – $34.8 Million
Sherlock Holmes 2 - $24 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 – $18 Million
War Horse - $13.5 Million
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – $12.8 Million

Time for catch up at the theaters.

Box Office Predictions: Ghosts and Dragons Take Christmas

Damon Houx — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 21:06:53 +0000

Though the holiday season tends to bring out some blockbusters, Christmas itself is a terrible day for movies. And this year, with Christmas Eve on a Saturday and Christmas on a Sunday, we’re not going to see strong weekend numbers from anyone. Something that’s going to repeat next weekend with New Year’s. Then again, it’s been a weak year, and last weekend proved it. This weekend we get The Adventures of Tintin, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol in it’s non-Imax run, We Bought a Zoo, The Darkest Hour and War Horse going wide. Busy busy.

Mission: Impossible had a great Imax launch and people are enthusiastic about it. That’s going to be good for both Tom Cruise and Brad Bird as a lot rested on this. The question is how long it plays. They would like it to hit $200 domestic, though international on this one is where the money is. Still, it would be good for everyone if Cruise has a domestic hit on his hands. It’s been a while. They should be around a $60 Million total by the end of the weekend, and if it takes number one it should stay there for next week. They have to hope that good word of mouth and holiday schedules keeps the film in play. Considering that the third film did $134 domestic, they really have to beat that number.

Dragon Tattoo is getting mixed word of mouth, and everyone is hoping that it’s the book that does a lot of the heavy lifting. With it they must be hoping for a slightly longer play because it has no award heat, and so far the numbers aren’t that great. If next week the film does about the same business (which is not that rare) they may be leaving 2011 with a little over $50 Million. Which means that the best would be a scenario where the film does over $100 domestic, unless it plays into January. The original films did well internationally, so it will be interesting to see how the movie plays abroad.

Tintin seems to have been stronger internationally, and the domestic release is sort of messed up by having two Steven Spielberg films hitting at the same time. I wouldn’t doubt both getting best picture nominations (animated for Tintin), but this seems a horrible mistake. War Horse opens Sunday, so it shouldn’t make much of an impression, but it’s not getting “masterpiece” pull quotes, which is what it needs. It’s possible that Tintin was sold well to children, so it may have some life yet. But on Wednesday its numbers were trumped by Alvin and the Chipmunks.The film was financed by a number of different companies, with Sony getting international. It’s quite possible we could get a sequel to the very expensive film, while it’s domestic numbers don’t crack $100. As with all box office discussion, international is the name of the game these days.

We Bought a Zoo has such mellow charms and zero Oscar buzz that it will be interesting to see if it gets any traction whatsoever. Perhaps the problem is that it’s a little too late in the year. Fox snuck it a lot, which led critics to already review it, and so the film seems done. Weird.

So let’s look at the weekend.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - $27.5 Million
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – $19.3 Million
Sherlock Holmes – A Game of Shadows – $17.5 Million
Alvin and the Chimunks 3 – $12.5 Million
The Adventures of Tintin – $11 Million

Which puts We Bought a Zoo out of the top five. Weekends like this are about family, and movies are a good way to avoid them. Should be interesting.

Box Office Predictions: Sherlock Holmes Puzzles Way to Top Spot

Damon Houx — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 19:47:36 +0000

The holiday season is on us, and – though often there’s hit films over the last two months of the year – it seems this year the last couple films of 2011 are crammed in like a poorly packed suitcase. Last week was softer than soft, but this week brings Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows, Alvin and the Chimpmunks: Chipwrecked and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. If you’re a theater owner, it’s time to stock up on your colons.

As I was saying last week, I don’t know if Sherlock Holmes is a real brand name in the scheme of things. Perhaps the brand is “Robert Downey Jr. in action.” That should be enough for the film to get open, but where it sat under the jet stream of Avatar’s massive fiscal coup, next week it faces real competition and will be – to extend the metaphor – flying into the headwind. Where the last film managed an impressive $200 million plus domestic gross, this will likely top out at around $150 or so. Next week Tintin should get the young adults, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo should get the real adults, and word on this one is not strong. Still, let’s say $50 plus, because why not.

Alvin and the Chipmunks seems to have completed its trilogy. The first two managed to do over $200, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if this continues that trend. Perhaps the tide has turned, but the next couple holiday weeks means that the film has time to play long. The films are short and keep kids busy, so that’s good enough to be good enough. Kids films are tricky, it’s possible parents have turned against these films. But more than likely it will be coasting until Beauty and the Beast 3-D hits in January.

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol is going the Imax route until next Wednesday. Expect sell out shows because The Dark Knight Rises Imax prologue. The film is good, so it could be a powerhouse through much of January.

This week finally kicks theaters back to life, but – again – with so many pictures between now and Christmas, there’s going to be at least one or two that misfire. Box office-wise, this has been a disappointing year. It’s hard to think that trend won’t continue.

So let’s get numbers:

Sherlock Holmes 2 - $49.3 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 - $27.9 Million
Mission Impossible 4 – $10.2 Million
New Year’s Eve – $5.8 Million
The Sitter – $5.1 Million

Sherlock and Alvin could be much bigger, it all depends on the hunger. Neither seems like appointment viewing like – say – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (where there are definite fans who will go, even if it opens to less). Both will win or lose with their last minute marketing pushes.

What are you going to see this weekend?

Action Packed Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows Trailer

Damon Houx — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 19:51:58 +0000

Will Robert Downey Jr. wear out his welcome? Hard to say, but he’s now got two franchises where he plays a smart jerk. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is Guy Richie‘s sequel to 2009′s surprisingly successful (it was overshadowed by Avatar, but made over $200 Million domestic) reworking of Arthur Conan Doyle’s most famous character. The newest entry co-stars Jude Law, Noomi Rapace, and Jared Harris. Check out the latest trailer…

The trailer suggests the return of Rachel McAdams, but as she is not top billed you can expect her either to leave the story for much of the film or to be killed off dramatically (though a vengeful Holmes sounds like less fun). I thought the first film was likeable, the sort of film that is rousing while you watch it and clever enough to make it not insulting – but not the sort of film that inspires great enthusiasm.

But the first film made over half a billion worldwide, so it’s probably worth going back for more. I like Downey Jr., and he’s done a better job than most comic book film stars in positioning himself as more than just the man behind the mask. Perhaps his success is similar to comedians like Will Ferrell, where as long as he does what people like him for they’ll turn out. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opens December 16.

Will you watch everything Downey Jr.?

Sherlock Holmes 2 Gets A New Title

Krystal Clark — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 23:26:27 +0000

This seems to be the week of new titles for movie franchises. Yesterday we learned that Sony’s Spider-Man reboot had been renamed The Amazing Spider-Man, and now Warner Bros wants to get in on the action. The studio has infused their upcoming Sherlock Holmes 2 with some added “oomph” in the title.

According to Coming Soon, the new title of the film is…wait for it, wait for it: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. Yeah, it’s pretty lackluster. Are we the only ones who think of Blair Witch 2: Book of Shadows when we hear the name? It seems like they could have done better. Darn these metaphors for story plot points!

“The sequel will continue the adventures of the world’s most famous detective, Sherlock Holmes (Robert Downey Jr.) and his friend and associate Dr. Watson (Jude Law) as they match wits against their arch-nemesis, Professor Moriarty (Jared Harris). The film also stars Stephen Fry in the role of Mycroft, Sherlock’s brother and will feature Noomi Rapace ad the currently-unnamed female lead.”

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows opens on December 16, 2011.

What do you think of the new title for the sequel?

Video: Sherlock Holmes 2 Behind the Scenes

Krystal Clark — Tue, 18 Jan 2011 22:58:17 +0000

Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law are at it again as the latest incarnations of Sherlock Holmes and his partner John Watson. The duo will reprise their roles for the sequel to the 2009 box office smash and will be joined by a few new faces including Scandinavian actress Noomi Rapace. Entertainment Tonight recently had an opportunity to hang out on the high octane film set, and they’ve posted some risque footage from their visit. Take a look…

Robert Downey Jr. in drag? We’re there! That man could dress up in a bear costume and we’d still be fans. How is it that the lipstick looks slightly appropriate on him?

The cast of Sherlock Holmes 2 also includes Jared Harris, Eddie Marsan, Stephen Fry and Gilles Lellouche. Harris has been named as the villain Moriarty, while Fry will play Holmes’ older brother, and Rapace will star as the female lead. The film will once again be directed by Guy Ritchie and is scheduled to hit theaters on December 16, 2011.

What do you think of the behind the scenes footage from Sherlock Holmes 2? Are you interested in seeing the film?

First Look: Robert Downey Jr., Jude Law on Sherlock Holmes 2 Set

Krystal Clark — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 21:02:23 +0000

The first on set photos from the Warner Bros sequel, Sherlock Holmes 2 have surfaced online. They feature the main characters Sherlock and Watson as played by Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law. As usual, neither of them look like they’re enjoying each other’s company and they might attack at any moment. We’re not sure what this scene is about but feel free to speculate…

There hasn’t been a lot of info revealed regarding the plot of Sherlock 2, but it looks like they’re somewhere on the countryside. The first movie relied heavily on the backdrop of London and here it’s all open fields and hills. What we do know is that the plot will pick up with the revelation that Professor Moriarty has been behind all of Holmes’ troubles.

Jared Harris (“Mad Men“) has been named as the actor stepping into the shoes of the villain, while Stephen Fry will play Holmes’ older brother, and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo alum Noomi Rapace will star as the female lead. The film will once again be directed by Guy Ritchie and is scheduled to hit theaters on December 16, 2011.

What do you think of the first photos from Sherlock Holmes 2?

Source: JustJared

Jared Harris is Sherlock Holmes’ Moriarty

Krystal Clark — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 19:59:17 +0000

Guy Ritchie has been making a lot of headway in the casting department for the sequel to his 2009 hit, Sherlock Holmes. Recently, Warner Bros announced that the female lead will be played by Swedish actress Noomi Rapace, and Holmes’ older brother Mycroft will be played by Stephen Fry, but the biggest role of all remained a mystery — until now. According to Latino Review, “Mad Men” star Jared Harris, will tackle the role of the evil Professor Moriarty.

Everyone from Brad Pitt to Daniel Day-Lewis have been rumored to play this part but neither actor nor the studio has confirmed their involvement. On the other hand, the site claims to have some solid sources who report that Harris is a lock for the part of Moriarty. The character is Holmes’ biggest nemesis. He’s the equivalent of The Joker to his Batman, the Lex Luthor to his Superman, the Magneto to his Professor Xavier, you get the point.

If Harris’ face looks familiar but you don’t watch “Mad Men” you’ve probably seen him in countless other projects. Seriously, this guy has been in almost everything! Did you happen to catch his stint on “Fringe” as the prisoner who time traveled out of his cell? He also played a doctor in Resident Evil Apocalypse and a drunk sea captain who gets Benjamin Button laid in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. He’s one of the best character actors out there. I’ve seen his work. He can do no wrong in my eyes.

What do you think of Harris as Moriarty? Is he a good pick?

Stephen Fry to Play Robert Downey Jr’s Brother in Sherlock Holmes 2

Krystal Clark — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 15:58:13 +0000

A couple weeks ago we reported that The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo star Noomi Rapace landed the role of the female lead in the sequel to the 2009 hit, Sherlock Holmes. It was then that we learned that Guy Ritchie plans on bringing another Holmes into the fold, Sherlock’s brother Mycroft. Actor Stephen Fry will play the role as Robert Downey Jr’s older sibling.

Mycroft is Sherlock’s older brother (by 7 years) and he’s extremely intelligent but lacks the motivation and physical capacity to be a full on detective.

According to Wikipedia‘s character description. He has no ambition and no energy. He will not even go out of his way to verify his own solutions, and would rather be considered wrong than take the trouble to prove himself right. Again and again I have taken a problem to him, and have received an explanation which has afterwards proved to be the correct one. And yet he was absolutely incapable of working out the practical points… — Sherlock Holmes, speaking of his brother in “The Adventure of the Greek Interpreter”

Have you ever seen a photo of Mycroft? Fry looks just like him! That’s some pretty accurate casting. Here’s what the actor had to say about his new gig.

I’m playing Mycroft in the sequel to the Sherlock Holmes film Guy Ritchie directed with Robert Downey Jr., and that sort of part is fun, but just once in a while to play a genuine all round sort of lead figure with complexity and tragedy and wit and all the sort of things that Oscar [Wilde] had was a once in a lifetime thrill.

This should be interesting.

What do you think of Stephen Fry playing Mycroft? Is he the right choice?

Source: Bleeding Cool

Dragon Tattoo Star Noomi Rapace Cast in Sherlock Holmes 2

Krystal Clark — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 15:21:29 +0000

A couple weeks ago, we wrote about the potential of Noomi Rapace becoming the next Marion Cotillard thanks to her role in the Swedish version of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. There’s been some Oscar buzz surrounding her performance, and she’s earned the attention of some name directors, one of them being Guy Ritchie. According to THR, the actress has been cast as the female lead in his sequel Sherlock Holmes 2.

The trade states that the plot of Holmes 2 is being kept under wraps but we can expect there to be a showdown between the title character and his arch nemesis Moriarty. There’s also word that Holmes’ brother Mycroft will also make an appearance in the sequel. As for Rapace, there are rumors that she’ll play a French Gypsy that interacts with the detective duo.

If she’s playing a French character, it makes you wonder why they didn’t just cast Cotillard in the role. It’s interesting that she chose this project to help jump start her American film career. Let’s see how it goes. As for the other castings, Moriarty is still a big, dark secret, and this is the first that we’re hearing of Holmes’ brother being on board. Who do you think could play him?

What do you think of Rapace joining the cast of Sherlock Holmes 2? Who do you think should play Mycroft and Moriarty?

Dragon Tattoo’s Noomi Rapace Gets Oscar Buzz, Up For Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible 4?

Krystal Clark — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:35:35 +0000

Here in the States people are still reeling over the casting of Rooney Mara as Lisbeth Salander in the American adaptation of The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. But what about the young actress who started it all? Noomi Rapace, who plays the character in the Swedish-language film has been receiving a lot of positive buzz for her performance, enough so that a possible Oscar nomination might be in her future. Not only that but her new international acclaim could land her a role in several blockbusters like Sherlock Holmes 2 and Mission Impossible 4.

Deadline is reporting that Rapace is on the fast track to becoming the next Marion Cotillard who starred in a small foreign film and earned a Best Actress Oscar for her performance. She went on to star in big budget movies alongside Johnny Depp with Public Enemies and Leonardo DiCaprio in this summer’s Inception.

Rapace recently arrived in the U.S. over the weekend and has been taking business meetings left and right. Everyone wants a piece of her. A source says that “Warner Bros’ Greg Silverman wants her for Sherlock Holmes 2, and Paramount’s Marc Evans wants her for Mission Impossible 4. If it’s not too far along.”

Brett Ratner has also shown interest in the actress and wants to meet her, but he’s just one of the many directors who she’s entertained while visiting.

She also met with Brad Fischer for the Phoenix Pictures project The Last Voyage Of The Demeter, Jon Amiel on his latest (believed to be titled Masterwork), James McTeigue on The Raven, Tommy Wirkola on Hansel And Gretel: Witch Hunters, and McG on This Means War. For the latter, McG discussed this juicy villain role.

Busy, busy, busy! Rapace has made quite the impression on Hollywood with The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo but if she wants longevity she’s going to have to be careful about the next project she chooses. As for the Oscar talk, we’re not sure if the Academy would be ballsy enough to disregard David Fincher’s remake by awarding the original a year prior to its release. Have they ever done that in the past? If so with what films?

Do you think Rapace gave an Oscar-worthy performance in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo? Which one of the films mentioned would you like to see her in?

ScreenCrave.com » Sherlock Holmes

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