Last weekend Breaking Dawn made a ton of cash, which was a surprise to no one. But not everyone who wants to see the latest blockbuster sequel goes opening weekend, and so though the fall off should be heavy (over 50%, possibly over 60%, and just as likely near 70%) it may be able to fend off the newcomers, which will probably hurt each other and let Twilight win. What must have happened is that no one blinked about this weekend, as there’s three films aimed at parents and children hitting theaters: The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo. On top of a week-old Happy Feet Two. It’s a Children’s film blood bath is what it is.

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Adam Sandler‘s Jack and Jill features twins named after the childhood rhyme. Puss in Boots features those characters from the childhood rhyme. Both are the most likely candidates for the top slot at the box office this weekend, with The Immortals and J. Edgar also hitting theaters. Last weekend saw Boots rebound from bad weather and hold the top spot against Tower Heist – perhaps it will make it a week three. Weak three could also describe the wide releases this weekend.

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This weekend Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas won’t have to face the winter storms of last weekend. That’s good for them, as this is considered the first heavy hitting weekend of the fall season. What it also means is that shortly we’re going to see a number of the bigger Oscar pictures go into limited and wide release. But – for the most part – big studios aren’t in that race any more, and so other than J. Edgar, we won’t see a big studio Oscar-bait film until around Christmas.

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The biggest question of the weekend is this: why did Paramount, which won last weekend with Paranormal Activity 3, bump up Puss in Boots to the first week of October when the first week of November has become the official start of the fall season? It should handily win the weekend over some lesser competitors – like Anonymous, The Rum Diary, and  In Time – but are they following the formula of Fast Five and getting an early jump on the competition, or do they think they have a weak sister?

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It would have been great if The Big Year, which stars Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson was also a remake of a 1980′s movie just so it’d be a trifecta, right? I guess you could make the case that Steve Martin peaked as a film actor in the 80′s, so we could pretend every big release this weekend was recycling. Regardless, it will be The Thing - a prequel to a 1982 film – versus Footloose - a remake of the 1984 film – battling for the top spot come Sunday, unless Real Steal surges.

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And that’s not a spoiler (or is it?) After a couple of weekends of older pictures, either in days (Dolphin Tale took the #1 slot a week after release) or years (the reissue of The Lion King), the first week of October promises to deliver new movies can top the box office. Shawn Levy‘s Real Steel is a genuine crowd pleaser, while George Clooney‘s The Ides of March is a smart political thriller. Both use star power (Hugh Jackman, Ryan Gosling) to their advantage. But both also have strikes against them.

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When the most anticipated movie of the weekend wasn’t reviewed for critics as is barely expected to crack ten million, yeah, we’re in the dog days. Dream House – which wasn’t screened for critics – could lead the pack of new films, and The Lion King looks to end its two week run at the top of the charts, which means we may see Dolphin Tale climb to the top slot. Or perhaps Moneyball, or… forget it Jake, it’s September.

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Can you feel the love tonight? After Contagion took the box office last weekend, you would think that September might have some moves. Normally a very slow month, this weekend proves how slow that is if The Lion King (in 3-D) manages to trump everything else. Then again, the hottest of the new titles is Drive - the Cannes Best director winner – that has also managed to get a little backlash. Those not as impressed note that the film doesn’t cure cancer. Surely that means that cancer is cured by the other films opening this weekend, I Don’t Know How She Does It and Straw Dogs. If so, expect their numbers to sure.

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After a couple of weeks of super weak titles, Contagion is the first A-lister vehicle in quite some time. You’d think summer would be loaded with them, but you can’t really call The Help or Rise of the Planet of the Apes star vehicles. Then again, look at the business Larry Crowne did. That is to say – very little. Forty years ago, a film like this would be a huge event picture ala The Towering Inferno. Now it’s a borderline art film. So let’s talk box office, shall we?

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