ScreenCrave.com » Weekend Box Office

‘The Avengers’ is a Cash Cow! Now the Sixth Highest Grossing of All Time

Damon Houx — Fri, 18 May 2012 19:51:03 +0000

The Dark Knight Rises has some real competition this summer, as The Avengers has now made over $1.07 Billion dollars worldwide. That puts it as the sixth highest grossing film ever, and it crossed $400 domestic last night – making it the fastest film to do so – which puts it at the number twelve spot for all time domestic grosses.

This means by the end of this weekend – where the film is projected to do anywhere from $50-$60 Million domestically – the film will have the record for fifth or sixth highest gross for domestic totals, either right behind or just above Star Wars. Yes, The Avengers will have made more money than Star Wars shortly – and it already has internationally. It’s also in the position to be the fourth highest grosser worldwide by the end of the weekend, which would put it ahead of Transformers: Dark of the Moon.

When you start adjusting for inflation, the picture is much different. The film will have to crack half a billion to enter the top fifty domestic grosses, and even a $600 Million total wouldn’t crack the top twenty five. So the film will have to settle for being the third highest grossing film worldwide, and likely the third highest grossing film (unadjusted) domestically.

What does this mean? More Marvel, more comic book movies and more Avengers.

How many times have you seen The Avengers?

Box Office Predictions: Will ‘The Avengers’ Sink the Boat Movie?

Damon Houx — Thu, 17 May 2012 18:27:11 +0000

As of today, The Avengers is the eighth highest grossing picture of all time worldwide. By the end of this weekend it should be the fourth. There are only two movies to have grossed over two billion worldwide – Avatar and Titanic – and it’s looking unlikely that The Avengers will make it to that territory. But it should be able to capsize Battleship this weekend. Easily.

There are two ways of looking at Universal’s release plan for Battleship. The film came out internationally a month ago, and has accrued over $200 Million already – though it’s slowed recently because of Avengers. One is that international, now more than ever, is the name of the game. And if there’s been more and more talk about international numbers, it’s simply because they can and often do twice as much if not more than domestic.They are the ones who show if a film is profitable or not.

A decade ago, we saw more and more co-productions from studios, where they would split the cost and one studio would keep domestic and another would hold foreign rights. Films like Starship Troopers and Master and Commander would often have two or sometimes three studios attached. It was because the films were then so expensive that they would rather not shoulder the $100 Million dollar budgets (or more) under one roof.

Now that we’re in an era of franchises, why would anyone want to share rights? The only studios that do that now are companies like MGM, which are so beleaguered that they don’t have a full release schedule, and don’t need to keep people around who would be working on two or three titles a year. And if international is the name of the game, then opening in America first – piracy concerns or no – is secondary. In some cases, we’ve seen Japan or England get the jump on America by a couple of days, but we may see more event films follow Battleship‘s lead.

The other way of looking at it is that Universal was scared of their film doing mediocre business against some of the more well known titles like The Avengers and Men in Black 3, and wanted to get the jump on the competition, and avoid any conflicts with soccer. They have $200 in the bank now because of their strategy, but had they gone with a worldwide date, it may have been much, much less.

Box office has been moving to report international more and more, and eventually – within the next couple years – we should see those international numbers come in at the same time as the domestic numbers. And not just when Disney needs to suggest that John Carter wasn’t a failure in its opening weekend.

The down side is that with more global thinking, it means – as the industry has been doing for some time – that they’re going to focus on films that are that much easier to export, and not titles that are necessarily wordy or smart. Often times, not even movie smart. Make no doubt about it, we’re in the era of fast food cinema.

The Dictator opened on Wednesday, and should do okay, but likely didn’t cost much. Sacha Baron Cohen is a known quantity, and it could do some business as a comedy-comedy (unlike Dark Shadows). What to Expect When You’re Expecting is also opening, which is going for the counter-programming business. Pregnancy is a harder date-night sell, though.

So Top Five it is:

The Avengers – $62.4 Million
Battleship – $38.7 Million
The Dictator – $17.8 Million
What to Expect When You’re Expecting – $15.3 Million
Dark Shadows - $12.5 Million

And then Sunday will see if Battleship can surpass expectations, or if it gets sunk.

What are you going to watch this weekend?

‘The Avengers’ Smashes $1 Billion Mark In Under 20 Days

Travis Woods — Mon, 14 May 2012 17:04:31 +0000

We get it, The Avengers—people like you. People like you a lot. But $1 billion in global box office receipts in 19 days? Now you’re just showing off, Tony Stark-style. Turns out people really, really want to see four superheroes (plus one athletic super-spy and one pointless dude with a bow and arrow) beat the hell out of New York City.

That’s right—by Monday’s end (the 19^th day of the film’s release), The Avengers will have raked in $1 billion dollars in box office totals. The Avengers will be the fifth Disney film and first Marvel film to cross into that mega level.

The film also busted another record this weekend—The Avengers is now officially the first film to take in over $100 million domestically for its second weekend in a row. And, as you’ll recall, the film also busted records for its opening weekend by pulling in $207.4 million. The Avengers was produced with a budget of $220 million.

The super-hero team-up film has now passed The Dark Knight’s spot on the top grossing films list to claim the number 11 spot on the worldwide grosser list. And, of course and unsurprisingly, all of this means that there will definitely be an Avengers 2, which Disney officially greenlit last week. And probably an Avengers 3, 4, 5 and 6. And a Hulk movie. And maybe an Iron Man 4, with or without Robert Downey, Jr. At this point, the franchise may be self sustaining and self-aware at this point, and will probably rise up and strike us all down if we try to pull the plug (I might be mixing up this news with the Terminator 2 plot, I’m not sure).

Have you seen The Avengers yet?

Source: ComingSoon

Box Office Predictions: ‘The Avengers’ Puts Competition in ‘Dark Shadows’

Damon Houx — Thu, 10 May 2012 18:36:33 +0000

When you’ve got a picture opening the week after another film has had the biggest opening weekend of all time, well brother, you’re in for a hard road. Even if The Avengers falls 70% this weekend that would mean a little over $60 Million dollars. That’s a steep hurdle for Dark Shadows. Surely no one is expected the film to do Alice in Wonderland numbers, but Shadows appears to be caught in the wake.

Dark Shadows offers a familiar combination of Tim Burton, Johnny Depp, Helena Bonham Carter, and Danny Elfman, all of whom have made at least five films together. And perhaps this is being sold as the latest iteration of their work together to the faithful. The lowest total that their work has garner is $50 Million domestic, while films like Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland have been big hits. The brand seems to work better when it’s kid friendly.

This is not as childish as some of those hits, and it’s based on a property that’s a cult favorite, but doesn’t have much mainstream pull. Warner Brothers didn’t start marketing the film until virtually a month before it was released, and word has been mixed critically. But Johnny Depp, right? Well, he couldn’t get The Rum Diary open, but perhaps he needs to be playing a freak.

And this should open, but is a near $40 Million dollar total good enough against The Avengers juggernaut? And can it play quietly (or quietly in the scheme of things)? How will this do internationally, where the name Dark Shadows means less? Perhaps Depp and Burton can save it there. It’s possible that the film will do okay, not a hit or a money loser, but the big news will be The Avengers when weekend numbers start rolling in. Such is the way of freakishly big movies.

So let’s say this:

The Avengers - $102 Million
Dark Shadows – $36.5 Million

And then a bunch of pictures doing under $5 Million. And we’ll know more come Sunday.

What are you going to see this weekend?

‘The Avengers’ Scores $18.7 Million In Midnight Screening Ticket Sales

Travis Woods — Fri, 04 May 2012 18:54:36 +0000

Not that it’s any surprise, but in case you were curious, The Avengers took in nearly $20 million from midnight showings on Thursday night, entering a pantheon of memorable blockbuster films that set records for their midnight-premiere screenings: The Dark Knight, The Hunger Games and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1.

The team up between Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, the Hulk, and two people in leather that no one cares about (Scarlett Johansson and Jeremy Renner) earned a reported $18.7 million in midnight screenings from approximately 2,500 theaters that played the film in both 2D and digital 3D, as well as the 273 IMAX 3D theaters.

Some context: Earlier this year, The Hunger Games scored $19.7 million during its midnight release, while The Dark Knight came through with $18.5 million (which set the record for a superhero movie, until The Avengers came out swinging).

To take that further, The Dark Knight grossed $158.4 million in its first weekend out, while The Hunger Games netted $152.5 in its first weekend. Knight held the record until Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows – Part 1 waved its magic wand and took the top spot with $169 million. What does it all mean? Our own Damon Houx speculates that Avengers will certainly clear $150 million by Sunday night, and will probably end up with approximately $165 million.

That’s not quite the record breaker, but don’t feel bad for The Avengers—internationally, the film has already raked in $304 million in ticket sales. I think it’ll be OK.

Did you see The Avengers at midnight?

Source: Coming Soon

Box Office Roundup: Audiences Waiting for ‘The Avengers’

Damon Houx — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 18:41:31 +0000

While The Avengers cleared $178 Million internationally, stateside none of the new films made much of an impression. And that’s why Think Like a Man was able to hold on to the top slot even with four new films in competition. It was a sleepy weekend because we’re about to enter the summer season. Check out the numbers…

	Film	Weekend	Per Screen	Total
1	Think Like a Man	$18,000,000 (-46.5%)	$8,933	$60,868,000
2	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	$11,400,000	$3,395	$11,400,000
3	The Lucky One	$11,325,000 (-49.7%)	$3,567	$39,927,000
4	The Hunger Games	$11,250,000 (-23.3%)	$3,149	$372,455,000
5	The Five-Year Engagement	$11,157,000	$3,800	$11,157,000
6	Safe	$7,720,000	$3,407	$7,720,000
7	*The Raven*	$7,250,000	$3,291	$7,250,000
8	Chimpanzee	$5,460,000 (-48.8%)	$3,484	$19,153,000
9	The Three Stooges	$5,400,000 (-44.7%)	$1,739	$37,141,000
10	The Cabin in the Woods	$4,500,000 (-43.9%)	$1,705	$34,664,000

Clearly nothing had the power to challenge Think Like a Man, which is on its way to a very healthy $90 Million domestic total. Maybe even a little more – it could get to $100 Million, but it’s unlikely. Kevin Hart is the name to remember.

The Pirates! has a chance to play long as it’s the only kids film until Madagascar, and we could see it hang out for a while. Word of mouth is going to be good – it’s a charmer – so this opening weekend may not spell its failure. But the next three films are all in spitting distance of its numbers, and we may see some pole position changes when the actuals come in. It’s possible The Five-Year Engagement could be the #2 of the weekend, but nothing will save it from being a low gross.

Indeed, everything else didn’t really open, but that’s to be expected when you come out the week before The Avengers. Universal may have simply dumped Five-Year, much as Safe and The Raven were dead before they hit theaters.

The Hunger Games is now the 17th Highest grossing picture of all time, and could crack the top ten. It’s going to have to cross $400 Million to get there, so the question is how it weathers next weekend.If it doesn’t hit $400, it’s going to be close.

Reality Check: I made the mistake of thinking the new pictures would open. Silly me.

Box Office Roundup: 21 Jump Street Takes the Crown

Damon Houx — Sun, 18 Mar 2012 17:11:45 +0000

Though most of its competition was slightly older, 21 Jump Street outperformed expectations this weekend and opened to $35 Million. For those hoping for good news when it comes to John Carter, alas, that ship has sailed. It was a big weekend for Channing Tatum, but also the quiet before The Hunger Games storm. Check out the numbers…

	Film	Weekend	Per Screen	Total
1	21 Jump Street	$35,000,000	$11,214	$35,000,000
2	Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax	$22,800,000 (-41.3%)	$6,049	$158,400,000
3	John Carter	$13,515,000 (-55.2%)	$3,605	$53,172,000
4	Project X	$4,005,000 (-64.1%)	$1,371	$48,131,000
5	A Thousand Words	$3,750,000 (-39.3%)	$1,979	$12,103,000
6	Act of Valor	$3,678,000 (-47.4%)	$1,330	$62,398,000
7	Safe House	$2,800,000 (-41.7%)	$1,458	$120,200,000
8	Journey 2: The Mysterious Island	$2,460,000 (-31.9%)	$1,271	$95,066,000
9	Casa De Mi Padre	$2,200,000	$5,759	$2,200,000
10	This Means War	$2,125,000 (-43.4%)	$1,280	$50,525,000

21 Jump Street cost $42 Million (reportedly), and it looks to be on its way to a $100 Million plus total. The film plays with an audience, so they’ll probably be making a sequel. This is a big win for both Jonah Hill (whose last starring role was in The Sitter, which bombed) and for Channing Tatum, who will have two hundred-plus titles by the end of April. Everyone comes out of this one looking good.

The Lorax is on its way to a $200 total, maybe a little bit more. Universal studios is already looking to do more Dr. Seuss, so you can tell they are happy with the numbers. Last weekend Disney trumpted John Carter‘s international numbers, but this weekend they didn’t have those numbers ready in time. Carter is over $50 Million domestic, but it will not crack $100 at this point, so it really is all about international.

Casa De Mi Padre opened strong in limited release. That could be the star power of Will Ferrell, but the film came across as weird, and when you have a site like Latino Review finding the whole project insulting, it’s likely there was some animus for the film from some quarters. It’s possible they could expand their runs next week, but the money for this one will likely be in home video rentals and sales. Otherwise, there’s not much to report.

Reality Check: When I wrote my predictions, I thought 21 Jump Street would do over $30 Million, so I was off a little there, and went a little high on Carter and Project X, which felt more of a sting from Jump Street. And I didn’t think A Thousand Words would hold so strong that it would crack the top five, but I am currently feeling no shame in my game.

What did you watch this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: The Devil Inside Tops Weak Weekend

Damon Houx — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:34:24 +0000

Ooh, scary. This is the first full weekend of the New Year, and like all new years, that means that the studios would rather you see their big pictures that just came out (or are expanding) than see much new. That’s because January is still considered a weak season. Yeah, you get your Taken‘s and such, but none of these pictures are thought to be blockbusters. Enter The Devil Inside.

Basically, the assumption is that people would rather do catch up than see something new. And though without a holiday, the older pictures are going to fall heavily percentage-wise, there are still people who need to play catch-up with Mission: Impossible or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Paramount has started their indie cheap movie company, and The Devil Inside hopes to follow the through the roof success of the Paranormal Activity films. This was done for practically nothing so the advertising surely outweighs the production costs. And with the Paranormal films, Paramount likely has a strategy to maximize their exposure to the audience who is interested.What they’re going to get is a strong weekend and then a complete collapse. Paramount mostly set up screenings for the night before, which is generally a sign of little faith, but with the horror market they don’t really need reviews.

Even if the film does $20 Million this weekend (it might), it’s still going to have to settle for a less than $60 Million total. The question then becomes the economics of such a picture. Studios spend upwards of a hundred million dollars to market a picture, and sometimes spend more on the selling than on the film itself – as must be the case here. The old formula was that a film has to make twice what it cost to be considered successful, but if the picture cost less than three million, and the advertising is more than ten, at what point does this formula become meaningless? Studios don’t want us to know how successful something really is, because that can lead to sharing more profits, and the numbers racket is just that. Unfortunately it’s become a very public sport where the rules of success and failure are imaginary.

Anyway, let’s look at a top five:

The Devil Inside - $16.8 Million
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - $16 Million
Sherlock Holmes – A Game of Shadows – $10 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Shipwrecked – $9.9 Million
War Horse – $8.8 Million

Next week should see a high gross for Beauty and the Beast, and then actual interesting new movies should be hitting screens. Exciting.

What are you weekend movie plans?

Box Office Predictions: You’ll Get Nothing New and Like It

Damon Houx — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 18:15:03 +0000

It’s New Year’s Eve on Saturday, which means 2012 starts Sunday and we’ll be getting a non-stop stream of Mayan apocalypse jokes about everything. For the cinemas there are two movies opening: Pariah (12/28) on four screens and The Iron Lady (12/30) on another four screens. These are qualifying runs, and it’s likely that Meryl Streep will get a nomination for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher. Shame about the movie, though. Let’s talk numbers, shall we?

With nothing new, expect positions to stay steady with many pictures getting a boost over last weekend. It’s possible that War Horse - which entered theaters on Sunday – will be the only change in the top five for the weekend over last weekend. Because of the Christmas holiday, there were more closed theaters for much of last weekend, where most stores don’t change their hours that much because of a party holiday.

That’s good news for these films, and it should mean that the numbers on almost everything are going to go up a little. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol will be at $100 Million by Friday, so it should get to $135-$145 by the end of weekend. Sherlock Holmes 2 is over $100 Million, but it probably won’t get as high a bounce.

But this better weekend probably won’t help The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Though the picture could limp to $100 Million, this isn’t the results expected. I don’t think it hurts anyone’s career, but I think it shows that The Da Vinci Code was a smarter package. It was claptrap with a beloved star. This… not so much. But then Daniel Craig is just Bond at this point. And Tintin is all about the international, for better or worse. Unless it really goes up this weekend as a word of mouth hit. Not likely.

So let’s get it over with:

Mission: Impossible 4 – $34.8 Million
Sherlock Holmes 2 - $24 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 – $18 Million
War Horse - $13.5 Million
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – $12.8 Million

Time for catch up at the theaters.

Box Office Predictions: Can Breaking Dawn Hold Off Children(‘s Films)?

Damon Houx — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 18:15:34 +0000

Last weekend Breaking Dawn made a ton of cash, which was a surprise to no one. But not everyone who wants to see the latest blockbuster sequel goes opening weekend, and so though the fall off should be heavy (over 50%, possibly over 60%, and just as likely near 70%) it may be able to fend off the newcomers, which will probably hurt each other and let Twilight win. What must have happened is that no one blinked about this weekend, as there’s three films aimed at parents and children hitting theaters: The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo. On top of a week-old Happy Feet Two. It’s a Children’s film blood bath is what it is.

As for Breaking Dawn, it’s going to be over $200 Million by end of weekend. I’m impressed and slightly baffled by people who wait to see these films, as it strikes me that with any major franchise seeing it right away is the point. Perhaps in the later weeks it’s the hardcore fans seeing it again (or for the last time on the big screen), but I don’t know if the young women raised on this series have that same pull toward going to the theater repeatedly that infected the generation that made Titanic the biggest film of all time (until Avatar). I don’t know how many people of a younger generation can have that same thrill – partly because the movie’s out on home video months later. Because until home video became a driving force, hit films would be in theaters for a year (at least), and the home video presentation was not very good. Though there are always stories about the hard core faithful going to see a film they love four or five times over a weekend, I don’t know if the people who loved Titanic would have gone back as much in the DVD era. Film itself may be slipping away, and if it is, you should sign this petition if you want to show some support.

Why the heck didn’t anyone blink this weekend? This end of year got crowded with stupid. I can see why The Muppets didn’t blink – it’s a family film, and they obviously have the best case to be made for being a hit. Parents who grew up on the show and movies may not so reluctantly take their kids. Of the new films it should open the best, though Disney paid through the nose with marketing on this one. The dirty secret is that an “A” Picture can spend upwards of $100 Million and over to market a picture, and even though the production budget on the film is listed at $50 Million or less, it may have made sense to spend that ad money because it’s not just the movies they’re selling with the advertising, but also the Muppets themselves, which have toys and DVDs and games and books. so even if the film does $120 Million in total, if they’ve relaunched the brand, it’s possible that the sales of the ephemera will amount to much much more than the ticket sales.

I get why Arthur Christmas didn’t blink. They’re basically following The Polar Express blueprint of having a month before Christmas to play slow and steady. Realistically it should have come out a couple weeks earlier against Jack and Jill and The Immortals, but Jack is also a Sony picture, so it gets complicated. And you can’t wait any longer as the picture is dead the minute Christmas is over, so you want to have a month to find an audience. The question is if it will pick up enough interest and business to keep playing. Sony didn’t seem to work too hard on this one, and it’s possible they won’t give it the support to keep playing. But it’s also possible that if they get to about $20 Million for the five day, they could – could – do over $100 Million domestic.

I didn’t get why Hugo didn’t blink, unless you look at Paramount’s schedule. They’ve had three movies back-to-back-to-back in October (Footloose, Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots) then they have Young Adult, Tintin and Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol in December. Paramount is not a studio that usually puts out that many films in a short period of time (often they’ll have a twelve picture year), and they have done well to not step on their own tail too much. Hugo is not only a hard sell, it looks like a co-production where Paramount only has the domestic rights. It’s a similar situation to Tintin, but with the Nickelodeon support that’s a much easier sell than a master director doing a kids movie. I’m not saying that Hugo‘s being put out this weekend to die, but if the cat is in the bag, the bag is in the river.so why not chase holiday weekend business and hope good reviews let it float just long enough to be replaced by Tintin or Ghost Protocol?

If you removed one of these pieces. it’s possible that The Muppets would do more business than Breaking Dawn when families want to see a movie to get the heck out of the house. With all three it might be close, but Twilight‘s got the edge.

So let’s do a little three-day predicting:

Breaking Dawn - $40.1 Million
The Muppets - $33 Million
Happy Feet Two - $14.4 Million
Arthur Christmas - $12.7 Million
Hugo – $7.5 Million

All three new pictures this weekend are great, by the way. But since they’re all kid-centric, it’s possible that these numbers could be dreadfully wrong. We could see Muppet support or family boredom frustration bring the numbers up on any of the new pictures. Hard to say. It’s a long holiday weekend.

Box Office Predictions: Puss Could beat Twins and Gods

Damon Houx — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 23:56:48 +0000

Adam Sandler‘s Jack and Jill features twins named after the childhood rhyme. Puss in Boots features those characters from the childhood rhyme. Both are the most likely candidates for the top slot at the box office this weekend, with The Immortals and J. Edgar also hitting theaters. Last weekend saw Boots rebound from bad weather and hold the top spot against Tower Heist – perhaps it will make it a week three. Weak three could also describe the wide releases this weekend.

Adam Sandler is no stranger to being hated, but Jack and Jill is not getting much love and is currently at 0% on the Tomato-meter. Audiences don’t seem to care too much about critics when it comes to Sandler, but the marketers never got funny material out of the trailer, and everything seems labored. That means the film should open on the low end of the Sandler spectrum, with a $20 Million plus weekend, and likely a long play. It could do well over the holidays, all things, and Grown-Ups played shockingly long – which has a 10% Tomato rating.

300 seemed to come out of nowhere and exploded upon release. The Immortals is not that picture, even if it’s tried to be. It’s possible word of mouth could kick up, but it’s on the wrong end of the 3-D movement and that will hurt as much as anything. Anything being having no names, and not having the 300 marketing team. The big hope for the picture would be a stronger play in international territories, and I’ve heard the film has got scale. Perhaps the film will rebound if word of mouth is strong.

J. Edgar is not getting the sort of critical support that is necessary to become an Oscar front-runner. That’s what the picture needed to coast for the next four months if it were to pick up some statutes. And though the film may get seven nominations, the only one that it’s safe to bet on a win is the make-up. Of course the Academy loves Eastwood, but if the film opens to ten million and is dead a week later, it’s just going to get sympathy nods. Leonardo should be able to net a “Depp” Golden Globe nod, which may bolster his chances, and Armie Hammer’s people will likely work him for a nomination – both could and might happen. But if audiences don’t care, the nomination becomes the prize. The pat on the head. It’s doubtful this will have a groundswell.

Puss in Boots had a crazy non-drop last weekend, and though some steam should be out of it, it’s likely to still hold well. But next weekend enters Happy Feet 2, and it’s all over.

So let’s do this:

Puss in Boots - $25 Million
Jack and Jill – $21.7 Million
The Immortals – $18.5 Million
Tower Heist – $12.7 Million
J. Edgar – $11.5 Million

The Immortals could go much higher, and so could Jack and Jill, but this is the weekend before Breaking Dawn. And that’s a $100 Million dollar plus three day.

What do you want to see this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: Tower Heist to Top Box

Damon Houx — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 01:10:24 +0000

This weekend Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas won’t have to face the winter storms of last weekend. That’s good for them, as this is considered the first heavy hitting weekend of the fall season. What it also means is that shortly we’re going to see a number of the bigger Oscar pictures go into limited and wide release. But – for the most part – big studios aren’t in that race any more, and so other than J. Edgar, we won’t see a big studio Oscar-bait film until around Christmas.

Tower Heist looks like a big expensive comedy, which would have been a much bigger deal in the 1980′s. Eddie Murphy has spent so long being a bad movie star that even if he’s slightly more with it in this picture than he was in the last twelve terrible comedies he made it will be hard for audiences to come back. It’s a case of brand poisoning. Murphy needs the Oscar telecast to prove to the world he can still be funny, though word travels fast and if he delivers here he could theoretically win his way back into people’s hearts.

That said, Ben Stiller has been a solid box office performer with comedy, and his last ensemble Tropic Thunder was a hundred plus grosser. This is looking at a high 20′s opening, and if it works could play strong, so I would guess that it gets to around $100 domestic, but that means it’s going to need international business to be successful. And – believe it or not – Stiller’s Little Fockers did more business internationally than domestically.

Perhaps it’s inside baseball, but it would be better for Tower Heist if it’s main press over the last couple weeks hadn’t been Universal’s decision to try a new VOD plan with the film. It’s harder to drive the narrative of a film with print publications on the wane. This isn’t Murphy’s big comeback, and they could have shaped that narrative had they tried. They had the baseball finals to sell the film, and perhaps they sold it as well as they could. But Eddie Murphy used to be an event, and he probably could still be one.

A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas is playing to its audience, which will show up early. The franchise has seen itself expand over its run, and benefited from strong home video performances. Such may be the way with stoner movies as it’s easier to navigate a DVD player whilst under the influence than the theater experience. Still, this one looks like it could be coming at the right time for a 3-D success, and Jackass 3-D performed above expectations partly because of the gimmickry. But American audiences have tired of the format – or it no longer offers the kick it used to. I’d still expect a nearly $20 Million opening.

One wonders if Puss in Boots suffered from 3-D fatigue. Granted, the film was hurt by the winter storms that rocked America, but Puss should have been the big Fall animated film. With Happy Feet Two, The Muppets and Arthur Christmas - not to mention Hugo – Puss is looking like the end of that franchise. At least for the next couple years. Shrek will likely return in the current studio climate, if only because absence making the heart grow fonder in this business is currently a four to five year break.

So let’s get this weekend weekended:

Tower Heist - $27.9 Million
Puss in Boots - $21 Million
A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas - $19.5 Million
Paranormal Activity 3 – $9 Million
In Time – $7 Million

We could see Tower Heist surge past $30 if word of mouth is great. Otherwise…

What do you want to see this weekend?

ScreenCrave.com » Weekend Box Office

‘The Avengers’ is a Cash Cow! Now the Sixth Highest Grossing of All Time

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Box Office Predictions: Will ‘The Avengers’ Sink the Boat Movie?

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‘The Avengers’ Smashes $1 Billion Mark In Under 20 Days

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Box Office Predictions: ‘The Avengers’ Puts Competition in ‘Dark Shadows’

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‘The Avengers’ Scores $18.7 Million In Midnight Screening Ticket Sales

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Box Office Roundup: Audiences Waiting for ‘The Avengers’

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Box Office Roundup: 21 Jump Street Takes the Crown

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Box Office Predictions: The Devil Inside Tops Weak Weekend

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Box Office Predictions: You’ll Get Nothing New and Like It

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Box Office Predictions: Can Breaking Dawn Hold Off Children(‘s Films)?

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Box Office Predictions: Puss Could beat Twins and Gods

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Box Office Predictions: Tower Heist to Top Box

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