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Box Office Predictions: The Devil Inside Tops Weak Weekend

Damon Houx — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 00:34:24 +0000

Ooh, scary. This is the first full weekend of the New Year, and like all new years, that means that the studios would rather you see their big pictures that just came out (or are expanding) than see much new. That’s because January is still considered a weak season. Yeah, you get your Taken‘s and such, but none of these pictures are thought to be blockbusters. Enter The Devil Inside.

Basically, the assumption is that people would rather do catch up than see something new. And though without a holiday, the older pictures are going to fall heavily percentage-wise, there are still people who need to play catch-up with Mission: Impossible or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

Paramount has started their indie cheap movie company, and The Devil Inside hopes to follow the through the roof success of the Paranormal Activity films. This was done for practically nothing so the advertising surely outweighs the production costs. And with the Paranormal films, Paramount likely has a strategy to maximize their exposure to the audience who is interested.What they’re going to get is a strong weekend and then a complete collapse. Paramount mostly set up screenings for the night before, which is generally a sign of little faith, but with the horror market they don’t really need reviews.

Even if the film does $20 Million this weekend (it might), it’s still going to have to settle for a less than $60 Million total. The question then becomes the economics of such a picture. Studios spend upwards of a hundred million dollars to market a picture, and sometimes spend more on the selling than on the film itself – as must be the case here. The old formula was that a film has to make twice what it cost to be considered successful, but if the picture cost less than three million, and the advertising is more than ten, at what point does this formula become meaningless? Studios don’t want us to know how successful something really is, because that can lead to sharing more profits, and the numbers racket is just that. Unfortunately it’s become a very public sport where the rules of success and failure are imaginary.

Anyway, let’s look at a top five:

The Devil Inside - $16.8 Million
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - $16 Million
Sherlock Holmes – A Game of Shadows – $10 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Shipwrecked – $9.9 Million
War Horse – $8.8 Million

Next week should see a high gross for Beauty and the Beast, and then actual interesting new movies should be hitting screens. Exciting.

What are you weekend movie plans?

Box Office Predictions: You’ll Get Nothing New and Like It

Damon Houx — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 18:15:03 +0000

It’s New Year’s Eve on Saturday, which means 2012 starts Sunday and we’ll be getting a non-stop stream of Mayan apocalypse jokes about everything. For the cinemas there are two movies opening: Pariah (12/28) on four screens and The Iron Lady (12/30) on another four screens. These are qualifying runs, and it’s likely that Meryl Streep will get a nomination for her portrayal of Margaret Thatcher. Shame about the movie, though. Let’s talk numbers, shall we?

With nothing new, expect positions to stay steady with many pictures getting a boost over last weekend. It’s possible that War Horse - which entered theaters on Sunday – will be the only change in the top five for the weekend over last weekend. Because of the Christmas holiday, there were more closed theaters for much of last weekend, where most stores don’t change their hours that much because of a party holiday.

That’s good news for these films, and it should mean that the numbers on almost everything are going to go up a little. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol will be at $100 Million by Friday, so it should get to $135-$145 by the end of weekend. Sherlock Holmes 2 is over $100 Million, but it probably won’t get as high a bounce.

But this better weekend probably won’t help The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Though the picture could limp to $100 Million, this isn’t the results expected. I don’t think it hurts anyone’s career, but I think it shows that The Da Vinci Code was a smarter package. It was claptrap with a beloved star. This… not so much. But then Daniel Craig is just Bond at this point. And Tintin is all about the international, for better or worse. Unless it really goes up this weekend as a word of mouth hit. Not likely.

So let’s get it over with:

Mission: Impossible 4 – $34.8 Million
Sherlock Holmes 2 - $24 Million
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 – $18 Million
War Horse - $13.5 Million
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo – $12.8 Million

Time for catch up at the theaters.

Box Office Predictions: Can Breaking Dawn Hold Off Children(‘s Films)?

Damon Houx — Wed, 23 Nov 2011 18:15:34 +0000

Last weekend Breaking Dawn made a ton of cash, which was a surprise to no one. But not everyone who wants to see the latest blockbuster sequel goes opening weekend, and so though the fall off should be heavy (over 50%, possibly over 60%, and just as likely near 70%) it may be able to fend off the newcomers, which will probably hurt each other and let Twilight win. What must have happened is that no one blinked about this weekend, as there’s three films aimed at parents and children hitting theaters: The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo. On top of a week-old Happy Feet Two. It’s a Children’s film blood bath is what it is.

As for Breaking Dawn, it’s going to be over $200 Million by end of weekend. I’m impressed and slightly baffled by people who wait to see these films, as it strikes me that with any major franchise seeing it right away is the point. Perhaps in the later weeks it’s the hardcore fans seeing it again (or for the last time on the big screen), but I don’t know if the young women raised on this series have that same pull toward going to the theater repeatedly that infected the generation that made Titanic the biggest film of all time (until Avatar). I don’t know how many people of a younger generation can have that same thrill – partly because the movie’s out on home video months later. Because until home video became a driving force, hit films would be in theaters for a year (at least), and the home video presentation was not very good. Though there are always stories about the hard core faithful going to see a film they love four or five times over a weekend, I don’t know if the people who loved Titanic would have gone back as much in the DVD era. Film itself may be slipping away, and if it is, you should sign this petition if you want to show some support.

Why the heck didn’t anyone blink this weekend? This end of year got crowded with stupid. I can see why The Muppets didn’t blink – it’s a family film, and they obviously have the best case to be made for being a hit. Parents who grew up on the show and movies may not so reluctantly take their kids. Of the new films it should open the best, though Disney paid through the nose with marketing on this one. The dirty secret is that an “A” Picture can spend upwards of $100 Million and over to market a picture, and even though the production budget on the film is listed at $50 Million or less, it may have made sense to spend that ad money because it’s not just the movies they’re selling with the advertising, but also the Muppets themselves, which have toys and DVDs and games and books. so even if the film does $120 Million in total, if they’ve relaunched the brand, it’s possible that the sales of the ephemera will amount to much much more than the ticket sales.

I get why Arthur Christmas didn’t blink. They’re basically following The Polar Express blueprint of having a month before Christmas to play slow and steady. Realistically it should have come out a couple weeks earlier against Jack and Jill and The Immortals, but Jack is also a Sony picture, so it gets complicated. And you can’t wait any longer as the picture is dead the minute Christmas is over, so you want to have a month to find an audience. The question is if it will pick up enough interest and business to keep playing. Sony didn’t seem to work too hard on this one, and it’s possible they won’t give it the support to keep playing. But it’s also possible that if they get to about $20 Million for the five day, they could – could – do over $100 Million domestic.

I didn’t get why Hugo didn’t blink, unless you look at Paramount’s schedule. They’ve had three movies back-to-back-to-back in October (Footloose, Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots) then they have Young Adult, Tintin and Mission: Impossible: Ghost Protocol in December. Paramount is not a studio that usually puts out that many films in a short period of time (often they’ll have a twelve picture year), and they have done well to not step on their own tail too much. Hugo is not only a hard sell, it looks like a co-production where Paramount only has the domestic rights. It’s a similar situation to Tintin, but with the Nickelodeon support that’s a much easier sell than a master director doing a kids movie. I’m not saying that Hugo‘s being put out this weekend to die, but if the cat is in the bag, the bag is in the river.so why not chase holiday weekend business and hope good reviews let it float just long enough to be replaced by Tintin or Ghost Protocol?

If you removed one of these pieces. it’s possible that The Muppets would do more business than Breaking Dawn when families want to see a movie to get the heck out of the house. With all three it might be close, but Twilight‘s got the edge.

So let’s do a little three-day predicting:

Breaking Dawn - $40.1 Million
The Muppets - $33 Million
Happy Feet Two - $14.4 Million
Arthur Christmas - $12.7 Million
Hugo – $7.5 Million

All three new pictures this weekend are great, by the way. But since they’re all kid-centric, it’s possible that these numbers could be dreadfully wrong. We could see Muppet support or family boredom frustration bring the numbers up on any of the new pictures. Hard to say. It’s a long holiday weekend.

Box Office Predictions: Puss Could beat Twins and Gods

Damon Houx — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 23:56:48 +0000

Adam Sandler‘s Jack and Jill features twins named after the childhood rhyme. Puss in Boots features those characters from the childhood rhyme. Both are the most likely candidates for the top slot at the box office this weekend, with The Immortals and J. Edgar also hitting theaters. Last weekend saw Boots rebound from bad weather and hold the top spot against Tower Heist – perhaps it will make it a week three. Weak three could also describe the wide releases this weekend.

Adam Sandler is no stranger to being hated, but Jack and Jill is not getting much love and is currently at 0% on the Tomato-meter. Audiences don’t seem to care too much about critics when it comes to Sandler, but the marketers never got funny material out of the trailer, and everything seems labored. That means the film should open on the low end of the Sandler spectrum, with a $20 Million plus weekend, and likely a long play. It could do well over the holidays, all things, and Grown-Ups played shockingly long – which has a 10% Tomato rating.

300 seemed to come out of nowhere and exploded upon release. The Immortals is not that picture, even if it’s tried to be. It’s possible word of mouth could kick up, but it’s on the wrong end of the 3-D movement and that will hurt as much as anything. Anything being having no names, and not having the 300 marketing team. The big hope for the picture would be a stronger play in international territories, and I’ve heard the film has got scale. Perhaps the film will rebound if word of mouth is strong.

J. Edgar is not getting the sort of critical support that is necessary to become an Oscar front-runner. That’s what the picture needed to coast for the next four months if it were to pick up some statutes. And though the film may get seven nominations, the only one that it’s safe to bet on a win is the make-up. Of course the Academy loves Eastwood, but if the film opens to ten million and is dead a week later, it’s just going to get sympathy nods. Leonardo should be able to net a “Depp” Golden Globe nod, which may bolster his chances, and Armie Hammer’s people will likely work him for a nomination – both could and might happen. But if audiences don’t care, the nomination becomes the prize. The pat on the head. It’s doubtful this will have a groundswell.

Puss in Boots had a crazy non-drop last weekend, and though some steam should be out of it, it’s likely to still hold well. But next weekend enters Happy Feet 2, and it’s all over.

So let’s do this:

Puss in Boots - $25 Million
Jack and Jill – $21.7 Million
The Immortals – $18.5 Million
Tower Heist – $12.7 Million
J. Edgar – $11.5 Million

The Immortals could go much higher, and so could Jack and Jill, but this is the weekend before Breaking Dawn. And that’s a $100 Million dollar plus three day.

What do you want to see this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: Tower Heist to Top Box

Damon Houx — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 01:10:24 +0000

This weekend Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas won’t have to face the winter storms of last weekend. That’s good for them, as this is considered the first heavy hitting weekend of the fall season. What it also means is that shortly we’re going to see a number of the bigger Oscar pictures go into limited and wide release. But – for the most part – big studios aren’t in that race any more, and so other than J. Edgar, we won’t see a big studio Oscar-bait film until around Christmas.

Tower Heist looks like a big expensive comedy, which would have been a much bigger deal in the 1980′s. Eddie Murphy has spent so long being a bad movie star that even if he’s slightly more with it in this picture than he was in the last twelve terrible comedies he made it will be hard for audiences to come back. It’s a case of brand poisoning. Murphy needs the Oscar telecast to prove to the world he can still be funny, though word travels fast and if he delivers here he could theoretically win his way back into people’s hearts.

That said, Ben Stiller has been a solid box office performer with comedy, and his last ensemble Tropic Thunder was a hundred plus grosser. This is looking at a high 20′s opening, and if it works could play strong, so I would guess that it gets to around $100 domestic, but that means it’s going to need international business to be successful. And – believe it or not – Stiller’s Little Fockers did more business internationally than domestically.

Perhaps it’s inside baseball, but it would be better for Tower Heist if it’s main press over the last couple weeks hadn’t been Universal’s decision to try a new VOD plan with the film. It’s harder to drive the narrative of a film with print publications on the wane. This isn’t Murphy’s big comeback, and they could have shaped that narrative had they tried. They had the baseball finals to sell the film, and perhaps they sold it as well as they could. But Eddie Murphy used to be an event, and he probably could still be one.

A Very Harold and Kumar 3-D Christmas is playing to its audience, which will show up early. The franchise has seen itself expand over its run, and benefited from strong home video performances. Such may be the way with stoner movies as it’s easier to navigate a DVD player whilst under the influence than the theater experience. Still, this one looks like it could be coming at the right time for a 3-D success, and Jackass 3-D performed above expectations partly because of the gimmickry. But American audiences have tired of the format – or it no longer offers the kick it used to. I’d still expect a nearly $20 Million opening.

One wonders if Puss in Boots suffered from 3-D fatigue. Granted, the film was hurt by the winter storms that rocked America, but Puss should have been the big Fall animated film. With Happy Feet Two, The Muppets and Arthur Christmas - not to mention Hugo – Puss is looking like the end of that franchise. At least for the next couple years. Shrek will likely return in the current studio climate, if only because absence making the heart grow fonder in this business is currently a four to five year break.

So let’s get this weekend weekended:

Tower Heist - $27.9 Million
Puss in Boots - $21 Million
A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas - $19.5 Million
Paranormal Activity 3 – $9 Million
In Time – $7 Million

We could see Tower Heist surge past $30 if word of mouth is great. Otherwise…

What do you want to see this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: Puss on Top

Damon Houx — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 23:30:53 +0000

The biggest question of the weekend is this: why did Paramount, which won last weekend with Paranormal Activity 3, bump up Puss in Boots to the first week of October when the first week of November has become the official start of the fall season? It should handily win the weekend over some lesser competitors – like Anonymous, The Rum Diary, and In Time – but are they following the formula of Fast Five and getting an early jump on the competition, or do they think they have a weak sister?

Looking at the holiday season, the answer seems to be obvious: screen count. Puss in Boots is in 3-D and will be on Imax screens. Currently there is no competition for those screens, but next week offers A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas, the next week has The Immortals, and then comes Happy Feet Two. More than weathering other 3-D pictures, Paramount likely blinked when they realized they could have three weeks before the next 3-D animated picture rather than two. And that’s a big deal when you’re adding 25% additional revenue with those ticket sales. For the last couple months there hasn’t been much on Imax screens, and so we’ve seen reissues and such to fill the gap. And feeding that beast is important to everyone in the industry, but certain seasons just don’t offer the sort of films that fit in the Imax format. For the next two months, there’s going to be a number of pictures jockeying for the bigger screens, which means that an extra week can make a huge difference even if the film plays well into December.

This move shouldn’t hurt Puss in Boots too much when release dates are more arbitrary than holiday-based, or at least it won’t hurt it any more than coming from a brand that audiences are no longer as crazy about. Shrek 2 was one of the highest grossing films of all time, but the numbers for the franchise have gone down dramatically since then. The last Shrek did $238 Million domestic (but was an international powerhouse), where Puss in Boots will be lucky to do over $150 Million. This weekend should net them over $40, and perhaps international will be bigger as well.But $40 doesn’t translate to over $200 when you’ve got this much competition.

In Time feels like a shuttled release. I don’t know if the film was ever going to be much of anything, but after Friends with Benefits and this, it doesn’t feel like audiences have latched on to Justin Timberlake as a movie star. It’s nice to have seen the man who brought sexy back not fall back on his laurels – he’s yet to play a musician, but he’s also yet to carry a movie that’s been all that successful (Friends did better internationally). Perhaps this will also do better globally, but the films of Andrew Niccol aren’t as revered as they once were, and Gattaca – his best claim at cult status as a director – was not successful theatrically.

Johnny Depp out of the Pirates gear isn’t making much traction – it seems he’s a draw domestically only as Jack Sparrow or when in a Tim Burton film. Last year The Tourist was met with meh’s domestically, but proved to be a powerhouse internationally, so perhaps there’s hope for this picture. The Rum Diary is being launched by Film District, and though they’ve had some small successes, they haven’t cracked small budget marketing. The critical reception has been mixed, and this should probably slink away quickly. Strangely, this is Depp doing the things that he’s famous for – he’s playing a drunken lout – but perhaps it’s too artsy or not PG-13 enough.

Anonymous is being launched on less than 300 screens. This needed to be an Oscar picture to gain steam, but the material and director likely torpedoed that as critical reception on rewriting the career of Shakespeare is not going to win you a lot of fans. In that way I think it’s similar to movies about Orson Welles that make Welles look like a jerk. It may or may not be true, but critics don’t respond well to that, and if you’ve lost them, you’ve lost the people who can save your movie. Roland Emmerich can make some preposterously entertaining films, but no one wants to take him seriously. That may not be fair, but life is not fair.

Paranormal Activity 3 should hold strong for the weekend, so let’s look at the guessings:

Puss in Boots – $40 Million
Paranormal Activity 3 - $20.7 Million
In Time – $10 Million
The Rum Diary - $7.9 Million
Real Steel – $6.7 Million

Anonymous won’t make a dent with the limited screens. Next week is supposedly when the Fall season really begins. Whoo-hoo.

Box Office Predictions: Footloose Fights The Thing

Damon Houx — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 17:40:12 +0000

It would have been great if The Big Year, which stars Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson was also a remake of a 1980′s movie just so it’d be a trifecta, right? I guess you could make the case that Steve Martin peaked as a film actor in the 80′s, so we could pretend every big release this weekend was recycling. Regardless, it will be The Thing - a prequel to a 1982 film – versus Footloose - a remake of the 1984 film – battling for the top spot come Sunday, unless Real Steal surges.

When it comes to weekend business with horror films, it’s usually lopsided. Horror films are what’s known as “Friday pictures,” in that the target audience wants to go opening night more than on – say – Sunday. And The Thing should do better than Footloose come Saturday morning. But with tepid word of mouth, a plot that is directly related to a film that has a cult following, and a core fanbase of the 1982 film (which itself could be termed a remake) that will not much care for the film, it’s got to get that audience of newcomers to flip for the film.

The film has one week until Paramount unleashes Paranormal Activity 3, which is already tracking better. The Thing has a weekend, and basically that boils down to a Friday, which means even if the film gets to $20 Million or more this weekend, it will face a steep drop next weekend and its ceiling looks like $40 domestic in total. With reshoots and a lot of effects it better hope for good international numbers.

Footloose was much cheaper and has a good shot of not only winning the weekend but playing much longer than The Thing. I’m not convinced there’s a huge audience for this film, but if it plays to tweeners, you never know. I think the problem is that it is recycled. Though I spent time as a youth sifting through my parents music collection, perhaps by being something from the 1980′s, it will be hard for a new generation to embrace what their parents loved at one time (if their parents did love it).

We’re in the midst of October, $16 Million is enough to win a weekend, and this should be able to do that. The problem Paramount is going to face is that the picture is very much an American draw, and though I would be surprised to see the fillm do $60 million or so (which would make it a success), it will likely have little traction outside of the states.

The Big Year did not seem to have a strong marketing campaign, though it may be targeted more at an audience that watches The View, or a number of more adult contemporary type shows. Off season would be a good place for a film like this, but if Fox felt like they had something it seems like they would have put more effort into getting it out there. Maybe a year of bird watching isn’t the best plot, but this could conceivably play long if it works. But you’d need some interest and some work, and it doesn’t feel like Fox has laid that groundwork.

What’s interesting about that is that the film surely cost over $40 Million dollars, and unless there’s a great surge, there’s no way they’re going to recoup that money in the next year. It comes from the director of The Devil Wears Prada, and it’s possible the film was green-lit because of that success even though no one really liked the idea. And then when it came out, it arrives DOA. Studios are wasteful like that.

It’s possible that Real Steel could stay on top for a second weekend if word of mouth is strong. Right now that doesn’t seem to be the case, so let’s do the numbers.

Footloose – $17.5 Million
Real Steel – $16.9 Million
The Thing – $14 Million
Dolphin Tale – $6.1 Million
The Big Year – $6 Million

We could see The Ides of March sneak in there, too. It’s possible that both Footloose or The Thing could surge to an over $20 Million opening, and that would be great for both, but I’m wary of suggesting as much. I may also be going to high on Real Steel, which feels like a strong audience picture. Next week will be all about Paranormal Activity 3, and then the week after the Fall season is going to kick off a week early with Puss in Boots.

What are you going to see this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: Real Steel to Win in the End

Damon Houx — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 17:57:26 +0000

And that’s not a spoiler (or is it?) After a couple of weekends of older pictures, either in days (Dolphin Tale took the #1 slot a week after release) or years (the reissue of The Lion King), the first week of October promises to deliver new movies can top the box office. Shawn Levy‘s Real Steel is a genuine crowd pleaser, while George Clooney‘s The Ides of March is a smart political thriller. Both use star power (Hugh Jackman, Ryan Gosling) to their advantage. But both also have strikes against them.

I wrote the review of Real Steel, and I think there are people who are going to embrace the movie, but I think it’s hard for the critical community to give a film like this a pass. It’s derivative, it’s directed by someone who’s made a career of crappy (and successfully crappy) films. It’s an easy film to dismiss, partly because with a concept as out there as they have with the fil, they didn’t want to put it in the summer or winter big money seasons. And yet that may have hurt perceptions on the film. Timing is everything.

I once got into an argument with Drew McWeeny about the placement of movies and how people received Thor versus The Green Lantern. As they are basically similar origin tales, with similar problems (unnecessary love interest, interesting supporting characters with little to do) and strengths (the villian, the special effects), I felt if they had switched release dates, The Green Lantern might not have gotten such a thumping critically, because Thor had the first “official” weekend of summer (the first week of May), while The Green Lantern came out in June after a number of loud and not that great genre efforts. I mention this not because I think I’m right or wrong, but to a certain extent the number of movies made in a certain genre or lack thereof can really be beneficial to it’s relative “goodness.”

I don’t know if Ridley Scott‘s Gladiator is one of the best of the sword and sandals films (it probably is, the genre’s not that great to begin with), but when it was released it was the only one made with a decent budget since the 1960′s. Just as 30 Minutes or Less came in the unfortunate position of being the last R-rated “raunchy” comedy in a summer with Bridesmaids, Horrible Bosses, and Bad Teacher - all of which passed the hundred million dollar mark. That’s not to say that people didn’t respond to the movies themselves, but you may not want to have a pizza every night you go out to eat.

What may drive Real Steel is that there hasn’t been a good underdog story in cinema since the last Rocky movie. The problem that DreamWorks and Disneyare going to run into with the film is that they need a respectable opening weekend, and that’s $30 Million-ish. That means they will make it to $100 million, and possibly $150. Word of mouth could play with this film, and tracking shows it a little above $20 for the weekend- so the big question is “how are the ads playing to kids?” That could drive this film more than adults, and it works as a family picture in a way we haven’t seen in a while. Though perhaps the key to this film is international. Jackman established himself with the X-men franchise, but outside of that his biggest film is the disaster Van Helsing (which did $120 domestic). Which then makes this film itself an underdog.

The Ides of March runs into that pizza problem by being the third movie in as many months to top-line Ryan Gosling. And though he’s a well respected actor, he’s never driven the box office. Drive is nearing a $30 Million dollar total, after being critically respected and winning big at Cannes. Gosling is working, but there’s no sense that he’s made an indelible impression on audiences outside of The Notebook, where he was one of the leads. The only films of his that have outperformed it are Remember the Titans and Crazy, Stupid, Love. The latter reecently passed those numbers, though it could also be called Steve Carrell’s picture. That doesn’t change the fact that Gosling has been giving interviews and has been on magazine covers, etc. for three months straight.

What’s going to help the picture is the presence of George Clooney, but as a director he’s made some very respected films that haven’t managed to do much more than $30 Million at the box office. Another problem is that it looks like a failed Oscar-bait picture – no one’s saying that the picture has much of a shot at anything, so there’s no building interest in that side of the critical community. This looks to be his strongest performer, but that’s not saying much.

So let’s do the numbers:

Real Steel - $29.5 Million

The Ides of March - $13.7 Million

Dolphin Tale – $9.9 Million

Moneyball – $8 Million

Courageous – $6 Million

We could see 50/50 or The Lion King sneak into the top five. I may be going high on Real Steel, but it’s tracking the best to have the top slot and I think it plays. Everything else seems about right.

Box Office Predictions: Leftovers Triumph over Dream House and 50/50

Damon Houx — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 18:44:50 +0000

When the most anticipated movie of the weekend wasn’t reviewed for critics as is barely expected to crack ten million, yeah, we’re in the dog days. Dream House – which wasn’t screened for critics – could lead the pack of new films, and The Lion King looks to end its two week run at the top of the charts, which means we may see Dolphin Tale climb to the top slot. Or perhaps Moneyball, or… forget it Jake, it’s September.

The big winner this weekend is going to be a film called Courageous. If you’ve never heard of it, it’s because it wasn’t marketed for anyone but it’s target audience, much like the Kirk Cameron film Fireproof. And it’s from the same creators. Subtly, we’ve seen more and more successful pictures that are pitched to religous audiences – much of Dolphin Tale‘s success and Soul Surfer‘s are due to a campaign that didn’t go for ad placement during sports shows or hit sitcoms. As a business model this is very exciting for the industry, but throughout the last forty years, we’ve sene numerous films do well by targeting an audience that was hungry to go to the movies, but didn’t respond to the big names. From Easy Rider and Superfly to Tyler Perry, there are numbers of films that have worked well by playing to a base. It doesn’t always work, but for a film like Courageous to do over five million is a big win for the film.

Dream House is being dumped by its studio and runs 92 minutes. It’s got names across the board – Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and Naomi Watts - and was directed by Jim Sheridan, who used to be an Oscar-friendly filmmaker. It runs 92 minutes and is coming out a little early for the Halloween season, which in film terms usually says it all. Still, it’s short enough and with enough famous people to do not terrible business.

I thought 50/50 was a solid piece of work that would have benefited only from an adjustment to a character that was a little too arch for the film, but I think it plays. It’s both funny and touching, but the question is if the people like who like the stars of the film (Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt) will turn out for an emotional roller coaster. I think the studio has been smart in telling audiences the results of the film, but this may be the worst or the best date-night movie ever. Films like this tend to work better when they have Oscar chances or are aimed at women. Perhaps if sports had somehow been involved. It may do the best out of the new releases, but only just.

What’s Your Number is another off season effort. Anna Farris has shown she can carry a Hollywood comedy, and Chris Evans is coming off his biggest solo hit with Captain America, and yet… late September. Off season is sometimes good for a rom-com, but they tend to go with near-Valentine’s day releases for more synergy. Basically, now is the best time for studios to release products they’re unsure of because with less competition, it makes sense to hope that people just want to go to a movie. If a film is set to be counter-programming during the busy months, it will often die that much faster – which is sometimes the goal (studios often hate the films they make). To release a film now suggests that either you’re going for a word of mouth appeal (like 50/50) or you can’t punch your weight.

So let’s top five it:

Dolphin Tale – $14 Million
Moneyball – $13.5 Million
The Lion King – $11.7 Million
50/50 – $10.2 Million
Dream House - $9.5 Million

Nothing’s really charting heavy, so it’s possible either Courageous or What’s Your Number could jump into the top five, and it’s also possible that Dream House dies a quick death even with the talent involved. It’s hard to know if this will hurt Daniel Craig any more than Cowboys and Aliens did. Next week brings Real Steel. That’s going to be fascinating.

Box Office Predictions: The Lion King to Rule All

Damon Houx — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 18:12:26 +0000

Can you feel the love tonight? After Contagion took the box office last weekend, you would think that September might have some moves. Normally a very slow month, this weekend proves how slow that is if The Lion King (in 3-D) manages to trump everything else. Then again, the hottest of the new titles is Drive - the Cannes Best director winner – that has also managed to get a little backlash. Those not as impressed note that the film doesn’t cure cancer. Surely that means that cancer is cured by the other films opening this weekend, I Don’t Know How She Does It and Straw Dogs. If so, expect their numbers to sure.

The Lion King 3-D has a couple things going for it. One is nostalgia with a new twist, and the other is being the only major kids film. Just as Contagion went to Imax screens because there was a need for Imax movies in the post-summer atmosphere, The Lion King is filling a hole. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin’s Tale kills it next week when it comes out, but – to be fair – Disney’s Blu-ray release of the title is set for release October 4. This is partly an ad for that, but the 1994 film made $328 Million when originally released, and there are now people who grew up with the film with kids of their own. There’s just enough here to make it a big enough deal to win the weekend.

Drive is wrestling with hype in some ways, which is interesting for a film that could have been a non-starter. The film should clear ten million this weekend, and critics have been almost uniformly positive (95% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes). Regardless of critical infighting (which is mostly “good not great” vs. “great”), the big hurdle for the movie is that it’s neither fish nor fowl. It’s got an arthouse pedigree, and grindhouse violence, which could turn off both groups who like those things. It’s hard to know if the film will find its audience. Outside of Albert Brooks – who is brilliant in the film – there’s not a lot of Oscar buzz, which would help the film have a long play. And action movies – straight action movies – often don’t do that well. The Dwayne Johnson film Faster opened to $8.5 million.

The Weinstein company still exists, and I Don’t Know How She Does It is proof. This Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle feels like its form another era, and this release feels like contractual obligation. Regardless, the film’s advertising and general interest is minimal. And so it does a number that isn’t a face plant, but disappears.

When I talked to James Marsden about Hop, he told us that he took the project after doing Straw Dogs. Which suggests the film has been in the can a while. This is true: the film was originally set for release sometime last year, but got bumped. Stripping down the original film of some of it’s most dark moments (though not all), and changing the protagonists in ways that dilute the impact of the story, the remake is more commercial. But that’s not going to help with critics (currently the film is rotten), and audiences don’t know the original that well. That’s always the problem with remaking things in this way.

So, weekend numbers are on deck:

The Lion King – $13.3 Million
Contagion – $13 Million
Drive – $11.7 Million
Straw Dogs - $6.9 Million
I Don’t Know How She Does It – $6.5 Million

So The Help‘s run is over at this point. We could see some movement on the lesser titles, but tis the season for weak releases.

Box Office Predictions: Audiences to get Infected by Contagion

Damon Houx — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 22:07:46 +0000

After a couple of weeks of super weak titles, Contagion is the first A-lister vehicle in quite some time. You’d think summer would be loaded with them, but you can’t really call The Help or Rise of the Planet of the Apes star vehicles. Then again, look at the business Larry Crowne did. That is to say – very little. Forty years ago, a film like this would be a huge event picture ala The Towering Inferno. Now it’s a borderline art film. So let’s talk box office, shall we?

Contagion is a weird film because it’s of a genre that doesn’t really happen much any more. It’s a disaster film, but one of a different scale and tenor than – say – The Swarm (I mentioned The Swarm to screenwriter Scott Z. Burns and dared Jeremy Smith to when he talked to Steven Soderbergh for AICN. His interview is excellent, but The Swarm is one of the most fascinatingly terrible films ever made.I can’t recommend it per se, and it’s obnoxiously long but if you’ve got a spare two hours and thirty five minutes, it’s on Netflix Instant). Matt Damon is a good name to have, but he’s not a guaranteed opener – The Informant did $33 domestic. Warner Brothers is going with an off-schedule release date hoping for a good no competition weekend, and a word of mouth hit. Both are likely with this strong film, which I liked.

Same goes for Warrior. Off season, but the word of mouth on it is striking . It’s got a fresh rating on the Rotten Tomatoes (for the moment) that is higher than that of Contagion. But it also stars two up and comers, Tom Hardy and Joel Edgerton, and neither have a great following of yet (though Hardy’s stock has been on the rise since Bronson). And though the fan community has embraced Hardy for his work in Christopher Nolan‘s Inception (and his upcoming role as Bane in The Dark Knight Rises), that’s probably not enough for more than a good but not great opening. Perhaps for this one there will be a word of mouth build, and when sports films click (think Remember the Titans or The Blind Side) they can play long. But Mixed Marial Arts is not that popular a sport, and there are some questions if it translates well to the big screen. We shall see.

There’s also two other films opening wide this weekend: Bucky Larson: Born to be a Star and Creature. With both likely to do less than five million this weekend, it’s probably best to pretend they don’t exist.

So let’s do a weekend prediction thingy, shall we?

Contagion - $22.5 Million
Warrior – $11.7 Million
The Help – $9.5 Million
The Debt – $5.9 Million
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $5.5 Million

What do you want to see this weekend?

Box Office Predictions: Don’t Be Afraid of the New Releases

Damon Houx — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 22:33:49 +0000

It’s bad the battle for least embarassing, as three new releases are going to try (and most likely fail) to take the top spot from The Hel p, which won last weekend. This week brings Our Idiot Brother, Colombiana, and Don’t Be Afraid of the Darkto wide release, and – as it’s the end of the summer – they are all hoping that low competition and low expectations will help them to make modest profits. Columbiana stars Zoe Saldana and with it, she has the largest role for a female person of color this summer. Check out our predictions…

Colombiana screened mostly for junket press – which is a sign of low confidence – but when it comes to Luc Besson-produced action films, after Taken I wouldn’t count this picture dead. But it’s not going to open that strong either. The advertising on this has been low, and it’s coming during the end of summer, which – as I’ve said – is a dead season. If it finds its audience – which it might – it could do really solid numbers, something along the lines of last year’s Takers. As it has the exact same release date, a $60 Million cume would be the win for this picture.

Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark had a tumultuous post-production as the film was set up at Miramax, but then the company was sold three times before Film District finally got hold of the film. The MPAA rogered it by giving it an R rating when it’s got little on screen violence, and no profanity, but I guess the mood is so pervasive they’re worried about little kids being scared. That said, pretty much every Disney animated classic involves a parent dying or being mistreated, while the G-rated Beneath the Planet of the Apes features people being shot in the head, and the world blowing up. The main things they’ve had to sell is Guillermo del Toro‘s good will, and Katie Holmes - Mrs. Tom Cruise – who has never been much of a box office draw, and has never opened a picture. Dark is 2-D, which may give it an advantage over Final Destination 5 and Fright Night, but it is the third horror movie in as many weeks, and the reviews are mixed.

Our Idiot Brother feels like a dump (a “dump” is not a number 2, but a term for a film that is contractually obligated to be released, but is done so without any enthusiasm), or maybe it just doesn’t have the right mixture of things to get it some heat. But people seem to like Paul Rudd, and the supporting cast (including Elizabeth Banks, Zooey Deschanel and Emily Mortimer). Maybe it’s that The Weinstein Company – who are releasing the film – are still fiscally crippled even after the worldwide success of The King’s Speech, or maybe the movie didn’t come together. But – while the other pictures might do business abroad – this is the sort of picture that doesn’t play internationally. Even if it did $20 Million for the weekend, it’s unlikely that the film will make money. But Paul Rudd is still something of a movie star, and had this come out in a March, perhaps it wouldn’t feel so secondhand.

Also this weekend Transformers 3 returns to Imax screens for a two week engagement. Studios used to reissue hit films after a successful run in the old days, and they did something similar with Spider-Man in 2002, but because there have been a number of pictures that haven’t done as well as hoped (Cowboys and Aliens, etc.), Paramount likely just sees an opening for a couple more bucks. The film is a little shy of $350 Million domestic, so perhaps that’s also a motivator – though the film has earned nearly $1.1 Billion worldwide. It will be interesting to see if this does drum up some business for the picture, as a reheated and somewhat tepidly received blockbuster didn’t seem to have audiences going crazy for it so much as it was the event film for that weekend.

Here’s my top five predictions:

The Help - $14.7 Million
Columbiana – $13 Million
Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $9.6 Million
Don’t Be Afraid fo the Dark – $9 Million
Our Idiot Brother – $7.3 Million

The Help is a big old word of mouth hit, and so is Rise of the Planet of the Apes. They are benefiting from weak competition, while the flood of new titles means that films like Cowboys and Aliens and Harry Potter are losing screens to films like Conan the Barbarian, which is doubly good for Apes as the last of the big summer event films. Not only is it facing weak competition from the new films, it’s the best “older” movie in a ten screen or less market.

What are you going to see this weekend?

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