The Avengers has so dominated the box office – and we’re looking at a holiday weekend – that it’s possible that Men in Black III might not put The Avengers into second place. It’s also inevitable by weekend’s end that Avengers will be over half a billion domestic. That said, it’s also possible that MIB3 could do a hundred over the four-day weekend. There are variables at play.
As of today, The Avengers is the eighth highest grossing picture of all time worldwide. By the end of this weekend it should be the fourth. There are only two movies to have grossed over two billion worldwide – Avatar and Titanic – and it’s looking unlikely that The Avengers will make it to that territory. But it should be able to capsize Battleship this weekend. Easily.
When you’ve got a picture opening the week after another film has had the biggest opening weekend of all time, well brother, you’re in for a hard road. Even if The Avengers falls 70% this weekend that would mean a little over $60 Million dollars. That’s a steep hurdle for Dark Shadows. Surely no one is expected the film to do Alice in Wonderland numbers, but Shadows appears to be caught in the wake.
All right, the non-wait is over! Though we get great movies all year round now, the summer season is when the year’s big tentpoles start hitting theaters at one to two a week. This weekend we get The Avengers, Marvel’s much hyped bringing-together of four of their biggest superheroes, and two other people.
The Hunger Games was going to be huge, but two months ago it was hard to say it was going to be this big, and it would have been impossible to predict when Relativity slotted Mirror Mirror, or when Warner Brothers plunked down Wrath of the Titans on the schedule. Surely both were hoping to the be the number one film of their weekend, but even with a Games 66% tumble, they’re going to have to do over $50 Million if they want any shot at number one. And that’s just not going to happen.
300 opened the door, and Alice in Wonderland showed the way; March has now become one of the biggest months in cinema. It’s where studios can put their titles that could be huge movies, but aren’t as battle tested as the latest superhero or sequel. And though March had some misfires this year, The Hunger Games is all but guaranteed to open to over $100 Million this weekend.
It’s the week of release, so it’s only fair that you’ve seen a lot of 21 Jump Street coverage here. Would you like to read my interviews with screenwriter Michael Bacall, stars Rob Riggle, and Brie Larson or the directors Chris Miller and Phil Lord? You can. Or not, up to you. But it’s the only new movie this week, and with John Carter‘s weak performance last weekend, it’s a got a clear shot to be the number one picture this weekend.
For some people there is glee when a movie fails, but I’m reminded of something Justin Bartha said to me about Gigli. People work just as hard on movies that bomb as movies that succeed, and almost everyone is just doing their jobs. And no one ever sets out to make a bad movie. The makers of John Carter went in with good faith, and thought they were making the Star Wars for the next generation. Unfortunately, they’re going to need a miracle for the film to work. And it seems a little too late for that.
Weekends like these make you feel bad for people who assemble theater marquees. Sure, they have X’s, but outside of Exorcism and X-Men movies, it doesn’t get much use. But this weekend you not only have The Lorax, but Project X as well. Perhaps they’ll use a K if need be. The first week of March has become a big money weekend now, and so these are serious competitors, with The Lorax looking at an over $40 Million weekend. Check out our predictions…
