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WonderCon 2012: ScreenCrave’s TV Preview!

Krystal Clark — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 16:07:32 +0000

This weekend, Comic-Con’s other half, WonderCon, is making the leap from San Francisco to Anaheim, CA. The annual event kicks off today and lasts until Sunday evening. The gathering will bring fans the latest in TV, movies, and of course comics. This year, ScreenCrave will have its eye on the small screen as we tackle the best in genre television. Do you have a thing for ABC’s Once Upon a Time? We sure do. Does CBS’ Person of Interest tickle your fancy? It rings our bells. Are you a proud student at Greendale Community College? We’re going three years strong. Let’s get this party started!

Below you’ll find all the screenings and panels we’ll be covering for WonderCon 2012. The full, three-day list of screenings and panels is both massively comprehensive/exciting, and, well, more than a little overwhelming. The ‘Con breaks it down for you here, at their full (and constantly updated) schedule!

Friday, March 16

Exclusive Warner Bros. Television Screenings: Person of Interest and The Secret Circle— For the third straight year, Warner Bros. Television kicks off WonderCon with exclusive preview screenings of upcoming original episodes of fan-favorite series. For 2012, WBTV will screen episodes of the first-year hit dramas Person of Interest and The Secret Circle.

Person of Interest: Person of Interest makes its WonderCon debut with a screening of a complete episode to kick off WonderCon 2012. In addition to Jim Caviezel, Michael Emerson, and Taraji P. Henson, Kevin Chapman (Rescue Me) also stars in Person of Interest, which airs Thursdays at 9/8c on CBS. Jonathan Nolan, J.J. Abrams (Star Trek), Greg Plageman (Cold Case), and Bryan Burk (Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol) are the executive producers of the series, from Bonanza Productions in association with Bad Robot Productions and Warner Bros. Television.
The Secret Circle: WBTV has conjured up a WonderCon exclusive premiere screening of the “Cursed” episode, a full six days in advance of its on-air debut Thursday, March 22, at 9/8c on The CW. Britt Robertson (Scream 4), Thomas Dekker (Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles), Gale Harold (Queer as Folk), Phoebe Tonkin (H20: Just Add Water), Shelley Hennig (Days of Our Lives), Jessica Parker Kennedy (50/50), Chris Zylka (upcoming The Amazing Spider-Man), and Natasha Henstridge (Species) star in the series, which is executive produced by Williamson, Andrew Miller (Nothing), Andrea Newman (Human Target), Leslie Morgenstein (The Vampire Diaries), and Gina Girolamo (The Lying Game). From Bonanza Productions Inc., Outerbanks Entertainment and Alloy Entertainment in association with Warner Bros. Television and CBS Television Studios, The Secret Circle airs Thursdays at 9/8c on The CW.

Sunday, March 18

Once Upon a Time: A must-see event for LOST and Once Upon a Time fans! Master storytellers Eddy Kitsis (LOST and Tron: Legacy) and Adam Horowitz (LOST and Tron: Legacy) bring you an exclusive advance screening of “Heart of Darkness,” an all-new episode of ABC’s Once Upon a Time. After the screening, Join Eddy and Adam for Q&A and lots of great surprises. You won’t want to miss it!
Community: Info is currently TBA but you know what that means? Awesome surprises! When it comes to the guys and girls of Greendale anything can happen. We’ll keep you posted on the ins and outs of this top-secret panel.

Stay tuned!

Will you be attending WonderCon this year?

New In Theaters: Dream House, Courageous, Sarah Palin: You Betcha! and More!

Laura Aguirre — Sat, 01 Oct 2011 18:37:45 +0000

There are a lot of new movies in theaters today, from a cancer dramady to a psychological thriller. Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen star in the critically acclaimed 50/50. There’s a romantic comedy starring the queen of spoof comedy Anna Farris and Captain America, Chris Evans. There’s also a suspenseful thriller, a Christian drama, and a martial-arts movie starring an ensemble of popular Hollywood actors. What will it be? Sort through our list.

Dream House

Dream House is advertised as the first suspense thriller of the fall season, starring Daniel Craig, Naomi Watts and Rachel Weisz. At the center of this story is a New England house with a haunting past. Unfortunately, the new family that moves in has no knowledge of its history and for that, they pay a price. There is a twist in the story, but sadly, it is revealed in the trailer, which defeats the whole purpose of a suspenseful movie. Critics didn’t get a chance to see advance screenings of Dream House and that’s usually not a good sign. According to Cinema Blend, Craig, Weisz and director Jim Sheridan were so unhappy with the final cut of the film that they refused to do press for it. The thing is, the trailer is pretty good, until the twist is revealed. If you haven’t seen the trailer, don’t! Watch the film. It’s got a great cast and hey, like the promos say, it’s the first suspenseful thriller of the fall.

Courageous

From the director of Fireproof comes Courageous, a Christian film about four police officers who struggle to be good role models to their children and strong spiritual heads of their household. The film was produced by Sherwood Pictures which is also a Christian production company. The film stars a group of first-time and unknown actors, with the exception of Ken Bevel and Kevin Downes. Is this Christian drama worth a shot?

“Courageous is often a soapy melodrama, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t moving moments — a eulogy, a father’s desperate efforts to stop a carjacking. And there’s more humor, toying with stereotypes, playing around with miscommunication.” — NewsOK
“A moving, modern parable not to be missed by anyone who’s always wondering why they don’t make wholesome movies with uplifting messages anymore.” – NewsBlaze

There’s no rating from the Tomatometer yet!

Sarah Palin: You Betcha!

Nick Broomfield, the guy that brought you Kurt & Courney, has made another documentary. This time, his controversial subject is none other that Sarah Palin. In Sarah Palin: You Betcha! Broomfield goes in search of 2008′s Vice President nominee. He interviews family and friends, and even comes face-to-face with Ms. Palin. Are the critics liking this documentary?

“Thankfully, the movie isn’t simply some damning collection of scare tactics. Broomfield may approach his work with a serious agenda, but he’s a very playful filmmaker…if you feel like watching movies that will make you giggle until you become enraged, I can’t think of a better choice than [this movie].” – Collider
“You keep waiting for the scope to expand…but instead whole chunks of the movie are devoted to watching Broomfield slip around on slick Alaskan ice. Incisive!” — indieWire

Sarah Palin: You Betcha! has a rotten 35% on the Tomatometer.

American Teacher

American Teacher is helmed by Academy Award-winning director Vanessa Roth. Maybe you recall last September’s Waiting for Superman? Well, here’s another documentary that spotlights the failing American public education system. Matt Damon serves as the film’s narrator. He’s a supporter of causes like Save our Schools. Check out the Youtube video of him arguing with a reporter over the subject (he gets pretty fired up). So does American Teacher do a good job at tackling this topic?

“Sadly, “American Teacher” comes off as more of a staid, herky-jerky stump speech than a fiery and clarifying call to action.” — Sockya
“While certainly timely considering the current political debate about the compensation of teachers and other public sector employees, the film is yet one more example of the increasing trend in documentaries of preaching to the choir. Its pedantic tone is only accentuated by Thao Nguyen’s oppressive musical score and the portentous narration by Matt Damon.” — Hollywood Reporter

And the Tomatometer rating for American Teacher is 56%.

Bunraku

Bunraku isn’t your typical martial-arts melodrama. The film, which stars an impressive list of Hollywood actors including Josh Hartnett, Woody Harrelson, Demi Moore, and Ron Perlman, looks a lot like Sin City. From the trailer, you get that this is a movie with a lot of fighting sequences and perhaps a cheesy plot. What are the critics saying?

“Demi Moore does what she can with a self-consciously stock femme fatale role, while Woody Harrelson suppresses the temptation to camp it up as a bartender who dispenses dubious wisdom at the Horseless Horseman Saloon.” – Seattle Times
“Bunrakuis an incredibly noble effort. From the puppet-driven opening credits honoring the connection between the film’s title and that of a 400-year-old Japanese theater piece, to the highly stylized set design and fight choreography, it’s quite clear that almost every element of this production was planned to the tee.” — Shockya

The film has a 16% in the Tomatometer.

And in case you missed it, here’s a list of the new releases that our critics reviewed:

50/50 (review) – A cancer dramady starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen.
Margaret (review) – This is an old film (it was made in 2005) that is just now being released. It stars a younger Matt Damon and Anna Paquin.
What’s Your Number? (review) – The new romantic comedy starring Anna Farris and Chris Evans.
Take Shelter (Sundance review) – Michael Shannon stars as an afflicted husband father. Take Shelter premiered at the 2011 Sundance Film Festival.
Tucker and Dale vs. Evil (Sundance review) – Hailed by our critic Mali Elfman as a comedic master piece,” Tucker and Dale vs. Evil tells the story two vacationing hillbillies.
Finding Joe (review) – This film explores the effect of mythologist Joseph Campbell’s studies.

Whoa! That’s a lot of releases for one weekend. Hopefully there’s something you’ll enjoy.

What will you watch this weekend?

Comic Con 2011: Ridley Scott’s Prometheus First Look!

Brendan Walsh — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 02:16:59 +0000

This afternoon in Comic Con’s Hall H, screenwriter and Lost co-creator Damon Lindeloff, joined by star Charlize Theron, presented a short behind the scenes look at Ridley Scott’s much rumored Prometheus. The panel also included a special visit live via satellite from Sir Ridley himself, as well as cast member Noomi Rapace, all the way from the movie’s set in Iceland. To find out more about what was screened and discussed, check out the rest of the article after the jump!

Unfortunately, since both 20th Century Fox and Comic Con are extremely strict about keeping the footage shown at the con exclusive for attendees, we can’t share the footage that was shown in the hall. I’ll do my best to describe it, however…

What was shown was essentially a behind the scenes look at the production thus far, featuring interview footage with Mr. Scott, and quick cuts of some of the completed shots, including massive set pieces which were expertly lit, rivaling the insanely impressive lighting setups of the first Alien film. There were plenty of other similarities to his 1979 masterpiece, including vast biomechanical sets with an influence from creature impressario H.R. Geiger. We also saw glass syringes with what look like little extraterrestrial larvae swimming in green goo. Other quick cuts revealed a spaceship approaching a giant, ringed, grey gas planet. There were also foreboding shots of crew members looking at each other menacingly, and several shots involving flamethrowers.

Additionally, we saw several shots of the film’s cast members, which included Guy Pearce in a glowing orange spacesuit, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo’s Noomey Rapace looking soaking wet and scarier than ever, The Wire’s Idris Elba piloting some kind of planetary rover (also reminiscent of Alien), and Charlize Theron doing pushups in the nude!

Over the footage, Ridley Scott explained that the rumors surrounding this film indicating that it would be a prequel to Alien were only slightly true. ”It’s not exactly Alien, but the creatures in this film include some of the DNA from the original creature.” He said that he was more interested in creating a hostile environment that could literally eviscerate the crew at any moment. ”What I really want to do is scare the living shit out of you.”

Ms. Theron went on to explain how she came to be on the film. She said that they had offered her a role, but she was scheduled to film a Mad Max remake on the other side of the globe. But when that film’s schedule pushed, she was suddenly available, and jumped at the chance to work on Prometheus. She described her character as a suit, and a scientist. She runs a tight ship, and you can tell that she’s going to be a problem.” I, for one, am eager to see her show off her range in another dark role. But I’m also glad that they didn’t have to ugly her up to justify it (yeah, Monster and North Country, I’m talking about you).

Lindeloff was happy to surprise the audience with a live transmission of Ridley Scott, joined by Noomi Rapace, as they stood atop a waterfall set in Iceland, where they were concluding the film’s shoot (the beginning of the story, incidentally). When asked why it had taken him so long to return to the science fiction genre, Scott replied, “I was just too busy making other movies and exploring other genres…until I realized that there was something about the first Alien, that no one answered the questions about, and I thought, ‘that could be the centerpiece of what we’ve just created.’ But still, we’ve gone in another direction, but in the last few minutes of the movie, you’ll understand what I’m talking about.

Scott also discussed that the film is being shot in 3-D. He said, “3-D has been a wonderful exercise…I was brought up as a camera op, so it’s all about lensing, and creating a look” He added, “I’ll never wrok without 3-D again, even for small dialogue scenes. 3-D Opens up the universe.” He also talked about the advantages of using practical set design and special effects. He said, “If you can do it live, do it live. It’ll always be better than anything else. And even though we’ve got all these digital capabilities, I continue do the same…it’s also cheaper.”

When asked by Lindeloff (who penned the script) about the challenges of filming this movie, Miss Rapace said, “It feels really weird to come back to Earth again. We started in early March, in space, and it’s been long, hard days, both physically and emotionally. But it’s been amazing– The best journey ever. Thanks to this man. When I read the script, I was thrilled. When we started to work, I went into it, I completely forgot about everything else, and it felt like we were discovering something that I haven’t been in before. My respect for him has been growing every day, and I come home smiling.”

The way the panel described the film was very encouraging, and it sounds and looks like a return to form for Ridley Scott. I wish I could describe the footage better, but they were rapid fire, and densely packed with intricate set design and alien awesomeness too cool to let me be a responsible journalist. However, speaking as a movie fan, I can definitely say that this movie looks like it is going to be SUPER COOL!!! Let’s hope a real trailer isn’t far behind.

Coming Up: Los Angeles Film Festival

Tom von Logue Newth — Tue, 14 Jun 2011 18:27:21 +0000

The Los Angeles Film Festival is gearing up for its second year downtown. Last year’s inaugural move from Westwood was accomplished smoothly, with frequent shuttles between venues, and a splendid mini-retrospective of forgotten Argentinean director Leopoldo Torres Nilsson. There’s nothing as striking in the retrospective section this year, and few obviously standout titles in the main selection, but you never know what unheralded gem will turn up. So from Thursday June 16 through Sunday 26, check out the screenings at the Regal Cinemas in LA Live, as well as shows at REDCAT, the Downtown Independent and special events at the Ford Amphitheater.

The most intriguing of these amphitheater events promises to be The Seduction of Ingmar Bergman a musical-cinematic fantasy that expands on the recent album by weirdo pop duo Sparks. In fact the film has not yet been made, but Guy Maddin will be directing a fourteen-strong cast live on stage to their band’s performance of the album. It concerns Bergman’s fictional visit to Hollywood in the 1950s and promises to be quiet an unusual experience.

Aliens vs Asbos

Of the more straightforward special events, the Galas include British alien invasion movie Attack the Block, written and directed by Joe Cornish with some producing help from Edgar Wright. A bunch of kids save south London and the world – “inner city versus outer space” – and is, according to the positive notices so far, somewhat less irony-laden than one might fear.

Action-packed The Devil’s Double has Dominic Cooper as the fellow chosen to double for Saddam Hussein’s nutter of a son Uday, with Lee Tamahori directing and Cooper going all out in the twin roles. Director Nicolas Winding Refn, on a roll after Valhalla Rising and Bronson, has been getting largely good notices for Drive, with Ryan Gosling going for Ryan O’Neal’s cool guy crown as a stunt-cum-getaway driver who gets fingered. Should be hardboiled, and could be rather good, given it won Refn best director at Cannes and also features Carey Mulligan, Christina Hendricks, Ron Perlman and Albert Brooks.

The third Ryan gets to ring in Opening Night with go-away-already Green Lantern, but probably a better bet for that evening will be Richard Linklater’s Texas-set black comedy Bernie, with Shirley MacLaine and Matthew McConaughey, and Jack Black as the eponymous small-town undertaker. Closing Night is a Guillermo del Toro production/presentation, 70s TV-movie remake Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, scaring hell out of Katie Holmes in dad Guy Pearce’s haunted mansion.

Del Toro is also one of the Guest Artist strand, presenting a mid-90s Italian gothic black magic movie, The Arcane Enchanter by Pupi Avati, which sounds terrific. Another guest is musician and composer Daniele Luppi, on hand to present Navajo Joe (1966): crazy Morricone score accompanies young Burt Reynolds as a vengeful Navajo for Spaghetti Western maestro Sergio Corbucci. It’s got to be worth seeing.

Burt Reynolds: actually Cherokee, not Navajo

Of the Summer Showcase section, my most anticipated is Tyrannosaur, the debut from valuable British actor Paddy Considine. It stars the fantastic Peter Mullan as a very angry and conflicted working-class widower whose tentative relationship with mousy, underrated Olivia Coleman does not proceed smoothly. Other showcase (ie non-competing) films include:

Letters From The Big Man, a slippery-sounding concoction from The Hours and the Times director Christopher Munch about a Forestry Service worker finding herself making friends with a Sasquatch out in the woods.
Christopher and his Kind: Dr Who Matt Smith is Christopher Isherwood, gaying it up with Auden in ‘30s Berlin, adapted from Isherwood’s memoir.
Come Rain, Come Shine from South Korean Yoon-ki Lee, by all accounts a quiet and effecting divorce drama.
The Destiny of Lesser Animals, a Ghanan police thriller, which is something you don’t see every day.
José Padilha’s sequel to his own semi-controversial and wildly successful Elite Squad, this time subtitled The Enemy Within, exploring corruption in Brazil’s crack police task force.
Project Nim: director James Marsh follows Oscar-winner Man On Wire with a documentary about Nim Chimpsky, the chimp who was taught to use sign language. Science and communication or exploitation and greed?
Love Crime, the final film from the hardboiled and quietly great Alain Corneau, a bloody corporate thriller starring Kristen Scott Thomas and Ludivine Sagnier.
And Winnie the Pooh.

Why?

Spread the various other sections, including narrative and documentary competitions, are films from Thailand, Quebec, Chile, Jakarta, Alaska, Austria, Czech Republic, Argentina and elsewhere. Special Spotlights fall on documenting Mexico, and features and documentaries from Cuba. The late-night The Beyond section is usually fun, and certainly giant Japanese robot movie Karate-Robo Zaborgar should be. Silverlake-set stalker movie Entrance is unfortunately ghastly, but then there’s the latest good-natured frightener from busy producer Larry Fessenden The Innkeepers, helmed by House of the Devil’s Ti West, plus a couple of entries from South Korea, of which Haunters has an intriguingly gaze-centred premise.

After last year’s Nilsson treat, the Retrospective survey is disappointingly disparate: John Singleton’s blistering Boyz n the Hood (1991) will always be fantastic, and is here the occasion of a 20th anniversary cast and crew reunion; German sub classic Das Boot (1981) fully deserves its reputation and if you think you can’t spend three and a half hours in a submarine, you can; and then there’s Elia Kazan’s rare and recently restored Wild River (1960), a slightly wonky chewing over of Tennessee land rights in the 1930s with Monty Clift trying to persuade obstinate old Jo Van Fleet to vacate her property so they can flood the area, and alien-eyed Lee Remick as the love interest. More interesting are the recent Films That Got Away: Paper Solider (2008) about the early ‘60s Soviet space programme, more Solris than The Right Stuff and honoured at Venice for Aleksei German Ml’s direction. This is paired with Mr Nobody (2009), the first feature in thirteen years from Toto the Hero director Jaco van Dormael, starring Jared Leto, Diane Kruger and Sara Polley in a time-bending mix of alternate realities, as the 118 year-old Nemo Nobody recounts his life story. It played well in Europe but never made it to the States and is going to be a fuck’s sight better than Benjamin bloody Button. Unfortunately it clashes in the schedule with veteran Raoul Ruíz’s epic (4-hour) Mysteries of Lisbon; a trans-European 19^th-century Chinese box of stories, riddles and identity, it’s my number one unmissable.

Look: dude's in a miniature theatre. It's got to be good.

All this plsu Community screenings including Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, Stand By Me, and either Breakfast at Tiffany’s or Raiders of the Lost Ark outside in the Nokia Plaza, dependent on website voting; lots of music videos and shorts; and a whole load of Conversations and Panels, including special evenings with Julie Taymor; Jack Black in conversation with Shirley MacLaine; and a soirée with James Franco, unveiling his film The Broken Tower about difficult ‘20s poet Hart Crane, which should be fun.

Learn more, find the schedule, see trailers etc at the Festival website.

Monte Hellman: Sneak Preview and Double Bills at the Egyptian

Tom von Logue Newth — Tue, 10 May 2011 16:07:49 +0000

The event of the year so far for me is the chance to see Road to Nowhere, the first feature in 21 years by Monte Hellman. He and the film were fêted at Venice and now, this Thursday through Saturday, the American Cinematheque at the Egyptian is hosting an in-person tribute, with a killer pair of double bills and a sneak peak at the new film.

Hellman has long been the unsung hero of American cinema, the quiet artist, best known for an obscure road movie with strange casting that tanked when it opened in 1971. That’s Two-Lane Blacktop, starring singer James Taylor and Dennis Wilson, of the Beach Boys, as the Driver and the Mechanic of a souped up ’55 Chevy. They are men without qualities just as snazzy GTO (Oates) is a man of too many, all put on. They agree to race across country for pink slips but the movie has little interest in the contest itself; like all Hellman’s greatest work it’s stripped to the philosophical barebones, the difficulties of communication, and of existence and its meaning. In Cockfighter (1974), Warren Oates doesn’t even speak for most of the film: a self-imposed vow of silence as he takes his bird on circuit to the title he threw away the year before.

These are arbitrary acts to provide focus, and purpose, but their validity is suspect. Hellman shot both films deep on location, in faceless places by the road, unremarkable hotel rooms, in ways that make the background fade away, or at least become interchangeable; his realism is such that it can be played out anywhere so long as the camera is running, and the more abstracted the better. As Hellman unremittingly strips away all that is inessential, it is the tension caused by this self-generating reality that combusts in the radically perfect ending of Two-Lane Blacktop.

Director Monte Hellman receiving a career award Special Lion at the Venice Film Festival last year.

The stars of that film don’t really act so much as exist, or rather live the bare story that was given to them in pages as they shot chronologically across the country. The result is a spare, remarkable film of dream-like power. It’s as little about cars as Cockfighter is about cockfighting. Oates is fantastic in both, finely nuanced, and if the latter is a less sparse – though no less brilliant – that’s partly because producer Roger Corman shot more actual fighting to cut in. Hellman and Corman go back to the 60s together, when Hellman repaired botched Poe adaptations. In 1965 Corman paid him to make a pair back-to-back westerns with Jack Nicholson which, after a pair of curious and enjoyable Philippines-set films, proved the first full flowering of his talent.

Ride in the Whirlwind has an added bonus in old-hand iconic Cameron Mitchell, although like the film as a whole, he is noticeably subdued. Mitchell, Nicholson and handsome Tom Filer are traveling cowhands mistaken for outlaws, holed up and hounded. It’s a bleakly absurdist injustice, and a tale full of Sisyphean tasks and dead ends. In The Shooting, Nicholson plays a gunman hired by the mysterious, imperious Millie Perkins to hunt down rascally Warren Oates. Just as in the 70s’ films, the goals are presented as arbitrary. Whirlwind is the more conventional western, though defiantly unromantic; dialogue was plucked from Old West diaries, and the film has a real-life immediacy bolstered by grubby, non-descript production design. The Shooting, by comparison, starts with extraneous detail and strips itself bare: figures stalk through barren landscapes for reasons unknown to us. In its relation to conventional cinema, and full of enforced inaction, Whirlwind goes with Hellman’s Philippines films; The Shooting, however, was his first existential masterpiece, a film whittled down to essentials, with ambivalent fatalism, mesmerizing power and a killer ending.

If each of these films seems suffused with the meaninglessness of existence, they yet avoid being meaninglessly bleak. Partly this is because the process of examining existence is so grippingly rigorous; partly because his characters do achieve moments of human contact, even if it will not last; and partly because Hellman is a film-maker of rare artistry. There is a quiet exhilaration in his film-making, the exercise of the art, and in its inextricable relation to real life. His new film Road to Nowhere makes that explicit, inspired in part by how Hellman and long-time collaborator Steve Gaydos used to shoot. The lead, a director making a movie based on a real life intrigue, almost has Hellman’s name; the mysterious actress who may not be what she seems is partly inspired by Two-Lane Blacktop’s Laurie Bird; and Hellman shot across America and Europe guerrilla-style with a digital SLR. The narrative triggers of his best work function in a similar way to Hitchcock’s MacGuffins and the intricate games of Jacques Rivette, an excuse to make the film, and in Hellman’s case, examine these people and these relationships, even if the context is borderline abstract. Road to Nowhere sounds like a more ambitious puzzle piece than he has yet given us, from murky convolutions of plot to the bleeding of fiction and reality. I can’t wait.

Two-Lane Blacktop plays with Ride in the Whirlwind on Thursday May 12, starting at 7.30pm
Cockfighter and The Shooting are on Friday May 13, 7.30pm
Road to Nowhere plays on Saturday 14, 7.30pm

Monte Hellman will be in attendance at the Egyptian Theater in Hollywood all three nights.

Read more about Road To Nowhere via David Hudson’s excellent round-up on Mubi.

Rango To Rule Box Office Weekend

Scott Schachter — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 20:33:01 +0000

The Oscar race is over and this weekend will see a slate of new releases all competing for the top prize at the box office. Johnny Depp’s Rango, and Matt Damon’s The Adjustment Bureau will see mild competition from such teen fare as Topher Grace’s Take Me Home Tonight, and the Vanessa Hudgen’s starrer Beastly. In all, it should be a busy weekend filled with choices.

And Now For Our Predictions…

#1 Rango

Johnny Depp’s last film, The Tourist may have been a box office disappointment but that should all change with the release of Rango. The success of Gnomeo & Juliet showed that there is a major void to be filled in animated films aimed at children. With a solid marketing campaign, decent reviews, and the usually reliable Depp, look for Rango to open at number 1 this weekend.

Our Prediction: $36M-42M Opening Weekend Box Office.

#2 The Adjustment Bureau

Matt Damon and Emily Blunt look to score a solid box office opening this weekend with their sci-fi action/thriller. With solid reviews, the ample star power of Damon and Blunt, The Adjustment Bureau should be able to fend off fellow competitor Unknown, to score a good opening and land at the number 2 spot this weekend.

Our Prediction: $16-17M Opening Weekend Box Office

# 3 The Kings Speech

With an Oscar win for best picture The King’s Speech should continue it’s solid box office run and may even see a boost at the box office weekend. Look for the film to land at the number 3 spot this weekend.

Our Prediction: $9M Weekend Box Office.

#4 Gnomeo & Juliet

Over the past few weeks Gnomeo & Juliet has become a solid box performer with strong week to week holds and strong buzz. However, this surprise box office smash should take a hit this weekend with the new release of Rango and land at the number 4 spot.

Our Prediction: 8M Weekend Box Office.

# 5 Unknown

Liam Neeson’s adult action/thriller has seen itself performing modestly at the box office, however it should take a hit from The Adjustment Bureau opening this weekend and land at the number 5 spot.

Our Prediction: $7-7.5M Weekend Box Office.

#6 Hall Pass

Our Prediction: $6.5M Weekend Box Office

#7 Beastly

Our Prediction-$6 Weekend Box Office.

#8 I AM NUMBER FOUR

Our Prediction-$5-5.5M Weekend Box Office.

9: Just Go With It

Our Prediction $5 Weekend Box Office.

#10: Take Me Home Tonight

Our Prediction $4M Weekend Box Office.

New DVD Releases: Due Date, Megamind, Get Low

Andrew Payne — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 15:34:32 +0000

It’s Golden Globe nominees a-go-go on DVD this week with honorees Emma Stone and Michael Douglas‘ nominated performances hitting shelves with the releases of Easy A and Wall Street Money Never Sleeps, as well as surprise nominee Angelina Jolie’s much bigger hit, Salt, also available on DVD.

All that, plus that M. Night Shyamalan’s elevator movie that wasn’t directed by M. Night Shyamalan. How exciting?! Check it out below…

Feature Films

Due Date

There’s something very surprising about this film. Not any of the plot twists, not the fact that Jamie Foxx served as human wallpaper in the film, not the fact that the screenplay managed to have zero likable characters. No, it’s the fact that the movie was not called Planes, Trains and Automobiles.

I’m not trying to say that this movie ripped off the Steve Martin classic – its premise was certainly different. But it was in the same mold. A road trip film with two totally mis-matched companions forced to bunk in various motels and deal with a never ending parade of rubes.

Now those are similar films and nowadays if a movie has any semblance to a classic, it’s tweaked a bit and slapped with the same title, because I suppose that makes executives sleep easier at night – knowing that they have any sort of a built-in audience.

Witness Robin Hood without the Robin Hood, King Arthur without a round table and the upcoming Arthur that appears to be a spec script re-worked slightly due to its similarities to that classic comedy. (I have no proof of this, but doesn’t it just seem that way?)

And that’s what’s so surprising. A studio had a chance to make people say, “I loved that movie – can’t wait to see how they updated it!” and didn’t take it.

Who knows? Maybe it wouldn’t have been such a box office disappointment if it hadn’t.

If you don’t care that it’s not a remake, you can buy Due Date on DVD.

Megamind

Think about this fact: This film featured Will Ferrell, Brad Pitt, Tina Fey, Ben Stiller, David Cross and Johan Hill in its cast. If that’s a live action comedy, it’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World embarrassment of riches. One that would certainly have any comedy nerd quivering with anticipation. A comedy that would make the The Hangover look like an independent quirkfest and have a good chance at opening to at least half of Megamind’s $148 million gross.

Instead, this film barely makes its massive production budget back with that aforementioned gross. A budget that certainly saw much of its total consumed in assembling that all-star voice lineup.

My point? It doesn’t matter if you have big movie stars doing voices in your film. They’re voices! We can’t even see them. If you didn’t tell us who they were, we’d spend half the movie saying, “Who is that? He sounds so familiar! Is he on “NCIS”?” And with a glut of voiceover talent in Hollywood, there’s no need to cast them. The animated films can be just as good when you move away from the big stars. Because nobody goes to see a movie based on the voiceover talent anyway.

Pixar understands this. It led two of its most acclaimed films (Ratatouille and Wall-E) with the likes of Patton Oswalt and Jeff Garlin, respectively. Fine comic voices, but certainly not on the star wattage level of the team voicing Megamind. Meanwhile, these two films made in about five seconds what Megamind made in five months.

So what matters? The quality of the film, not the Q-rating of the talent. That’s how you make big bucks with an animated movie – and saves you some coin at the same time.

But if you do fall for the voiceover starpower – you can buy Megamind on DVD.

Also:

Get Low – Buy Now

TV on DVD

Showtime Female Comedies

There’s some sort of conventional wisdom amongst TV writers that Showtime is now the network of strong powerful women.

Let’s examine that statement for a second.

There are three of these Showtime comedies that star women – barely 25% of the network’s original programming.

Each of these women has a problem. Nancy Botwin of “Weeds” is a drug dealer. Jackie of “Nurse Jackie” is a drug addict. Finally, Tara from “The United States of Tara” has multiple personalities.

These aren’t exactly the strong, independent women of “The Mary Tyler Moore Show” or even “30 Rock”. If anything, these shows do nothing but show the only way to get a series made with a female lead is to give her some horrible character flaw that suddenly makes her “interesting”.

Ah, the latent sexism of Hollywood never fails.

Of course, if you enjoy these flawed women you can buy these freshly released series:

Also:

“Celebrity Rehab”: Season 4 – Buy Now
“Huge”: Complete Series – Buy Now

And Just So You Know, This DVD Exists…

Yes, it’s called ‘Alien vs. Ninja’.

New DVD Releases: Unstoppable, Waiting for Superman, You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger

Andrew Payne — Tue, 15 Feb 2011 16:09:08 +0000

You’d think with the Oscar race piquing movie interest and with nothing in the theaters other than Bieber and Sandler to satisfy that interest, studios would be filling the shelves with new DVDs to tide us over. Well, that didn’t really happen. In fact, the DVD coffers are just about bare beyond the Denzel Washington (literally) vehicle hitting shelves this week.

Check it all out below…

Feature Films

Unstoppable

Here is Denzel Washington’s filmography since he won Best Actor for Training Day and Entertainment Weekly’s Entertainer of the Year:

John Q – Nobody saw it.
Antwone Fisher – Nobody saw it.
Out of Time/Man on Fire – I assumed they were the same movie.
The Manchurian Candidate – Hatchet job of a remake which, once again, nobody saw.
Inside Man – The lone bright spot. Barely.
Deja Vu – A movie that caused Richard Roeper to say he expected Washington to turn to the camera at one point and say, “Do you believe any of this?”
American Gangster – The must run-of-the-mill/overrated movie of the decade.
The Great Debaters – I don’t know what that is, but he supposedly directed it.
The Taking of Pelham 123 – “You’re taller than I thought. You’re good-lookin’ too!”
The Book of Eli – “It’s not a bomb, it’s a weapon!” (paraphrased)
Unstoppable – This release. The film that broke the record for most cliches ever in its trailer.

Take a look at that resume. Doesn’t it make you wonder: Is Denzel Washington even a movie star anymore?

If you still think so, you can buy Unstoppable on DVD.

Also:

Waiting for ‘Superman’ – Buy Now
You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger – Buy Now

And Just So You Know, This DVD Exists…

Master P’s back! In DVD form.

New DVD Releases: Life As We Know It, For Colored Girls, Paranormal Activity 2

Andrew Payne — Tue, 08 Feb 2011 18:30:41 +0000

A surprisingly large array of DVDs this week, and a bit of something for everybody. This week’s offerings are loaded with horror movies, rom-coms, Tyler Perry flicks and even a porno-thriller. Oh yeah. And in the midst of this hodgepodge of fun, we’ve also managed to locate the Mowry twins of “Sister Sister”. It’s definitely an interesting week on DVD.

Check it all out below…

Feature Films

Life As We Know It

I never even thought about seeing this film, because the trailer for Life As We Know It is in what I like to now call the “Just Go With It Zone”.

I’ve recently christened this zone based on the trailers for the off-putting new Adam Sandler film. The spots where we see a man making up a family (of course), hating the children (naturally) and then falling on his balls (hilarious!).

This zone is named for the following thought I have watching this trailer: “Who is actually sitting at home, seeing this commercial coming on television and saying to themselves, ‘Wow! That looks great. I have to see that!’”

It’s a reaction that I can’t possibly see anybody having to this trailer. The spot makes the film look so gut-wrenchingly bad that I can’t imagine a carbon-based life form actually being spurred to see this thing.

And that’s where Life As We Know It comes in. Here’s what the trailer makes the movie seem to be: Two people go out on a bad first date. For some reason their mutual friends appoint them joint custody of their kid when they die. Somehow a court thinks this is a good idea and throws them into the house together to raise the child. The kid throws cake at them. They end up falling in love.

Again, I don’t know if any of that is true, but that’s exactly what the trailer for this film makes the storyline out to be. And it raises the question: Who would see that trailer and actually want to go see this movie?

It baffles me.

But if you are one of those people you can buy Life As We Know It on DVD.

Also:

For Colored Girls – Buy Now
I Spit On Your Grave – Buy Now
It’s Kind of a Funny Story – Buy Now
Middle Men – Buy Now
Paranormal Activity 2 – Buy Now
You Again – Buy Now

And Just So You Know, This DVD Exists…

New DVD Releases: Red, Secretariat, Glee

Andrew Payne — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 22:38:58 +0000

If you like indie movies, this is a dream DVD weekend for you as it is absolutely loaded with smaller pictures. Sure, there’s a wide release in there (Takers), but for the most part, this weekend belongs to the little guy with everything from Oscar contenders (Animal Kingdom) to people writing spam e-mails saying their movie should be an Oscar contender (Buried). So set your DVD player for “Arthouse” and enjoy.

Or, if none of that is your bag, you can watch lots of old TV shows on DVD. Or relax with the canine misadventures of Chris Parnell.

Check it all out below…

Feature Films

Red

Have you not seen Red? Well, maybe you have. If you saw The A-Team, The Losers, Mr. and Mrs. Smith or any other action “comedy” with violence and jokes coming in equal measures then, yes, you’ve seen Red.

It’s literally become that formulaic. Take some kooky characters, give them plenty of firepower and roll out the weird jokes and overwhelming set pieces. Some must love the formula. While others, like me, just feel like they’re seeing the same movie over and over again.

If you are one who loves this formula, then buy Red on DVD.

Also:

Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer – Buy Now
The Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest – Buy Now
Nowhere Boy – Buy Now
Saw: The Final Chapter (Formerly Saw 3-D) – Buy Now
Secretariat – Buy Now
Still Bill – Buy Now

TV On DVD

“Glee”: Season 2, Vol. 1

I can’t decide if releasing these DVD boxes mid-season is a good or a bad thing.

Is it a good thing because it easily allows people who’ve missed episodes to catch up? Is it a bad thing because these are essentially the equivalent of a bare bones relief of a feature film in it that forces people to buy the full season down the road?

Agh! I can’t decide.

Either way, you can buy Glee Season 2, Vol. 1 on DVD

And Just So You Know, This DVD Exists…

Oscar Power Rankings: Nomination Reaction and Early Winner Predictions

Andrew Payne — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 19:30:14 +0000

Well, that was…not exciting at all. How not exciting was it? I managed to go a staggering 40-for-45 on my Oscar predictions this year. I ran three categories and got four in all the others, with the biggest underdog ranked seventh (Javier Bardem, shocker!)

In other words, this was a painfully predictable Oscar morning, and it’s shaping up that Oscar night may be just as obvious.

Thus far, here’s how the race for the statuettes is shaping up…

Best Actor

1 – Colin Firth in The King’s Speech

After breaking through with his first nomination last year, Firth emerged as this year’s favorite when his film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in September, and he hasn’t faded since. It’s going to be hard for anybody to topple this Weinstein-backed front-runner.

2 – Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network

If anybody can do it, the nerd in a gray hoodie can! Seriously, the only way Firth is going to lose is if the love for The Social Network becomes so overwhelming that it bleeds into every category. That doesn’t seem too likely, but it’s the best chance of an upset in this race.

3 – Javier Bardem in Biutiful

Bardem sneaks in as the (very mild) surprise nominee – edging out Robert Duvall for the last slot on the list. Strangely, that’s enough to get him into third, as this is the film that most Academy members are likely to check out last as the race winds down.

4 – James Franco in 127 Hours

Congratulation, Mr. Franco. You win the, “Lock Nominee All Season With No Chance of Winning” Award. Have fun hosting. I’m sure we’ll see you here again.

5 – Jeff Bridges in True Grit

Possibly the poster boy for the idea that we shouldn’t give great actors an Oscar just because it “feels” like their time. A year after his “career” win, Bridges gives a far superior performance in a far superior film and now has no shot because he won last year. Oh, how this race would have changed if it weren’t for the sentimentality vote.

Best Actress

1 – Natalie Portman in Black Swan

She seems like a lock, but Oscarless Annette Bening is right behind her. This is going to be a closer race than people think, but it’s still definitely Portman’s to lose.

2 – Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right

There’s that career Oscar thing again. Bening has yet to win, and this is her fourth nomination in a storied career. The biggest thing working against her here is her age – she’s only 52 and has plenty of time to rack up a few more nods before it’s time to hang it up. If she were 62, she’d be in prime position for that “career” win. Don’t count her out though.

3 – Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Another actress you can’t count out, and that’s because she has the power of Weinstein behind her. The same power that took a supporting role by Kate Winslet a couple years back and got her that first Oscar. The top two are so strong though, that it’s going to be very difficult for Williams to catch up.

4 – Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone

This year’s Melissa Leo, Janet McTeer, Felicity Huffman and so on indie actress nominee. Too bad for Lawrence that nobody in that slot ever wins.

5 – Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole

Welcome back Nicole. Enjoy your nomination, because that’s all you’re gonna get.

Best Supporting Actor

1 – Christian Bale in The Fighter

Bale just might be the biggest lock in all the acting categories. Looking down this list, it’s hard to make a case for anybody upsetting him.

2 – John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone

Hawkes gets the de facto “surprise” nominee push. I also put him this high because newbies who revisit his performance are likely to be blown away. Could be a Bryan Cranston at the Emmys-like situation in terms of he’s so good people just feel compelled to vote for him. Of course, so many feel the same way about Bale.

3 – Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech

He’s in a beloved film, but I doubt the Academy feels Rush is a big enough star to win a second Oscar. Though with this, his fourth nomination, he could be approaching that strata and he does have the Weinstein’s behind him, so don’t count him out…

4 – Jeremy Renner in The Town

As expected, Jeremy Renner snuck into his second nomination, which means critics will now categorize him as a good actor. That will help him get more nominations, but not a win this year.

5 – Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right

Ruffalo snuck in, edging out Andrew Garfield for this nomination (his first!). That honor is probably going to be the only one he gets this year, however.

Best Supporting Actress

1 – Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit

Here’s my upset special. The Academy loves a child performance and this is one of the best to come along in years. This being the only spot for the Academy to really honor the blockbuster Grit helps her chances greatly.

2 – Melissa Leo in The Fighter

A very close second, and the presumed favorite. She’ll suffer from some Amy Adams vote splits (barely) and voters wanting to look elsewhere after checking Bales’ name for the same film. These small distractions may be just enough to keep her out of the promised land.

3 – Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom

Weaver overcame being left out of the SAGs and a dwindling campaign to come frown Down Under and claim a nomination. The initial curiosity is going to win her some buzz, but that’s likely to fade as the month wears on.

4 – Helena Bonham-Carter in The King’s Speech

She’s got the Weinsteins, but this is definitely the least flashy role of all those nominated. That’s going to cost her a lot of votes, as will the voters’ wanting to spread the wealth after voting for Firth.

5 – Amy Adams in The Fighter

One of these days, Amy Adams is going to get nominated for a film in which she isn’t competing against a co-star with a much better chance of winning. On that day, she’ll probably win.

Best Original Screenplay

1 – The King’s Speech by David Seidler

I’m calling a slight upset here. Conventional wisdom would say this is the one category where voters can honor Inception, but that was the same for the similarly buzzed-about Up In The Air last year. That one lost out and the festival darling Precious was left standing triumphant. The King’s Speech winning here would be an Oscar doppelganger.

2 – Inception by Christopher Nolan

See above.

3 – The Kids Are All Right by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg

This year’s Little Miss Sunshine and/or Juno is sitting in the third spot in the categories where those movies won. Why? Because unlike those films, Kids wouldn’t have been nominated without ten slots to fill.

4 – Another Year by Mike Leigh

The Academy clearly loves Mike Leigh, as evidence by his beating out best picture nominee Black Swan for this spot, but they don’t love him enough to make him a real contender in this category.

5 – The Fighter by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson

Another one where it’s much more about the acting than the writing – at least in terms of public perception. The nomination’s the win here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1 – The Social Network by Aaron Sorkin

The biggest lock in the history of the Oscars. Seriously. If somebody offers you 1:1000 odds on Sorkin’s winning this award, bet whatever you can. Because even if you only get $1,001 back on a $1,000 bet, that’s still free money.

2 – True Grit by Joel & Ethan Coen

Ah, in any other year it’s a lock. Too bad it picked the year of Sorkin to be written.

3 – Toy Story 3 by Michael Arndt

The year will come when Pixar cashes in one of its perennial screenplay nominations. This will not be that year.

4 – Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik & Anne Roselini

What a wonderful little indie screenplay. Such rich language. Such a deserving nomination. Such minuscule chances of winning in the year of Sorkin.

5 – 127 Hours by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy

Remember when everybody thought this movie had a chance to be a contender in every single category? Well, then you remember November, because those days are over.

Best Director

1 – David Fincher for The Social Network

This is the most competitive race by far. Unfortunately for the excitement of Oscar night, Fincher is a pretty substantial favorite. He’s beatable though.

2 – Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan

I like Aronofsky as the leading contender to pull the upset. This movie’s massive gross and glowing reviews have all been mostly attributed to its helmer. He’ll get bonus points for bringing out stellar performances from top to bottom.

3 – Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech

The thing that gives this race a potential for excitement is that the third-place contender has a real shot to win. Hooper was the early favorite and then has seen his campaign fade steadily since November. Now that he’s in, he’s got a chance to win though, especially with the Weinsteins having his back.

4 – David O. Russell for The Fighter

Russell was the slight surprise in this category. Not surprising that he got nominated, but surprising that Christopher Nolan was the one whose slot he took. Either way, he’s a long shot this year.

5 – Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit

The only directors without a chance. It’ll take awhile before the Academy feels they’re due again after the duo’s No Country For Old Men windfall.

Best Picture

1 – The Social Network

Here’s where it gets a bit interesting. Everything is pointing to a Social Network juggernaut, everything except…

2 – The King’s Speech

…The campaign for The King’s Speech. Remember, this was the favorite in the early part of the season until The Social Network started winning every single critics award. Now it’s hot off a PGA win and leads the field with 12 nominations. All that, plus the Weinsteins spearheading a campaign for a smart crowd pleaser. This race is very close.

3 – True Grit

Don’t count out this film. The box office is going to be something the Academy latches onto. After all, this was a $38 million Western made by a quirky directing team that the studio took on purely for Oscars. Now it got all the acclaim and is poised to make $150 million, maybe even $200 million. That sort of success is exactly what the Academy is aching to reward.

4 – The Fighter

The Rocky comparisons have been made all year, but that made more sense when it appeared The Social Network was its only real competition. Now with Speech heating up and Grit a wild success, it’s only got a puncher’s chance of taking home the top prize.

5 – Black Swan

This movie might make $125 million. I can’t imagine anyone in Hollywood thought it would make more than $25. The Academy definitely wants to get behind these .

6 – Inception

It’s basically impossible for a film to win when its director isn’t nominated even when it’s a highly acclaimed blockbuster.

7 – Winter’s Bone

And now we’re into the movies that have no chance. Winter’s Bone is a nice story – this year’s Hurt Locker without the buzz, but it has no shot of winning. Why do we nominate ten pictures again?

8 – Toy Story 3

As with every animated film – No movie that the Academy can award a Best Picture prize in another category is going to win the big prize. It just won’t happen.

9 – The Kids Are All Right

Ditto.

10 – 127 Hours

Remember when this was a contender? Well that’s over. At least in hung tough enough to get nominated.

****************

Now that we’ve reached then end, allow me to once again rant about the idiocy of ten nominees. I got every single Best Picture nominee right. Every single one.

This isn’t because I’m some kind of sage, but because with ten slots to fill, the race becomes incredibly predictable. There just weren’t enough films this year to fill the ten spots.

Conversely, if there were only five slots, this would have been a very thrilling Oscar morning. Would Toy Story 3 have overcome the animation bias to secure a slot? Would Nolan finally have gotten a Best Picture in? Which of the indie darlings (Black Swan or The Fighter) gets join the big party?

All this would have been in play. Instead, they all get in. Along with a few stragglers with no chance whatsoever of winning.

Again, ten nominations is a BAD idea. Especially when all five of the seven likely top vote-getters is going to make over $100 million this year and the stragglers are actually the movies that nobody saw.

In other words, two years of smaller movies getting nominated was no reason to expand the field. As we can clearly see, most years some actual hits are going to fill the nominee list.

Even if there’s only five spots available

Who do you think is going to take home the Oscar?

Oscar Power Rankings: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Andrew Payne — Mon, 24 Jan 2011 20:11:05 +0000

Here we go everybody. The title pretty much says it all. This is the final Oscar Power Rankings list before the nominations hit those screens behind the half-asleep presenters tomorrow morning. These haven’t been updated in awhile, so a lot has changed – including the addition of the screenplay categories!

So let’s not wait a second longer. Here are The Oscar Power Rankings’ final Oscar nominee predictions…

Best Actor

(1) Colin Firth in The King’s Speech – While the buzz for his film has dwindled, the love for his performance has not. He’s the clear frontrunner in this category.
(2) James Franco in 127 Hours – Pretty much the same story as Firth, except about 20% less.
(3) Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network – Eisenberg has managed to keep precursor pace with chart toppers Franco and Firth the entire awards season. At the beginning of Oscar season it seemed like he’d be the forgotten man from his film, now he’s its most surefire nominee.
(4) Jeff Bridges in True Grit – Screening the movie so late cost Bridges some early precursors (like a Golden Globe nomination), but he’s rebounded nicely since then. The SAG nomination sealed it for him.
(6) Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine – Buzz for this film is clicking at the right time and The Weinsteins are in full campaign stride with this and The King’s Speech. He’ll sneak into the fifth slot.
(5) Robert Duvall in Get Low – Buzz for this movie and performance peaked very early in the Oscar race. Since then, we haven’t heard much about it at all. His SAG nomination gives him a good chance of taking the spot back from Gosling, but I think he’ll wind up just short.
(7) Javier Bardem in Biutiful – Despite Julia Roberts’ best campaigning efforts, this doesn’t appear to be Bardem’s year.
(8) Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter – Christian Bale pretty much said it all during his Golden Globes speech: Quiet performances that anchor movies just never seem to get recognized when they have to go up against flash competition. I’d call it the Matt Damon memorial snub.
(10) Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception – Nobody’s talking about the actors for this film. But if anybody’s going to sneak in on a surprise, it’ll be DiCaprio.
(NR) Paul Giamatti in Barney’s Version – He won the Golden Globe for Comedy. That’s gotta count for something, right?

Dropping Out: Aaron Eckhart in Rabbit Hole (9)

Best Actress

(1) Natalie Portman in Black Swan – The only thing that can derail her now is a Norbit-like reaction to No Strings Attached.
(2) Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right – It doesn’t seem like she’s going to suffer from any vote-splitting as, down the line, the precursors have chose Bening while virtually ignoring her co-star. She’s a lock.
(3) Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone – Her precursor total is nearly on par with Portman’s and the only important one she missed was the Golden Globes (in favor of an inexplicable nomination for Halle Berry). She won’t have to worry about Ms. Berry’s nipping at her heels going forward and won’t have any trouble securing a slot.
(4) Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine – She missed out on a nomination for another small indie (Wendy and Lucy) but this one has a lot more momentum. She won’t end up empty-handed this time.
(5) Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole – I don’t think anybody’s actually seen this movie, but that hasn’t stopped Kidman from comfortably making a comeback into the ranks of Oscar favorite. Her first nomination in 8 years seems like a certainty.
(6) Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right – While her onscreen spouse has been raking in the precursors, Moore has been watching from the sidelines. She’s been ignored too often to think it will change at Oscar time.
(NR) Hilary Swank in Conviction – She’s only gotten one precursor nomination but it was from the Screen Actor’s Guild. And that’s enough to get her this high on the list.
(NR) Lesley Manville in Another Year – This movie’s insanely small and there’s questions as to whether she’s a lead or supporting performer. Acclaim has been mounting for it, so it’s not impossible, just highly unlikely.
(7) Noomi Rapace in The Girl Who Played with Fire – Rapace just never got enough momentum to overcome the film’s being released so long ago and it being in Swedish. At least she got a role in the Sherlock Holmes sequel out of it. Not a bad consolation prize.
(9) Anne Hathaway in Love and Other Drugs – She’s the host. She’s Catwoman. She’s in the news. And we need a tenth slot.

Dropping Out: Carey Mulligan in Never Let Me Go (8) and Kim Hye-Ja in Mother (10)

Best Supporting Actor

(1) Christian Bale in The Fighter – This could actually be considered the most acclaimed performance of the year. Even more so than Natalie Portman’s. He’s a lock.
(2) Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech – He gets this year’s “He was always a lock to get nominated, but there’s no chance he’s going to win” Award.
(3) Andrew Garfield in The Social Network – He may have missed out on a SAG award, but that was really his only significant miss all season. The buzz for this film is so overwhelming that he almost has to be included.
(4) Jeremy Renner – The Town – Critics absolutely adore this performance, and the buzz has building steadily all season, peaking with a SAG nomination. He’s popular enough now to seem like a near-lock.
(6) John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone – This may be wishful thinking on my part, since I consider this to be the performance of the year (well, actually second to Portman’s, but she doesn’t need any help), but he does have the third most precursors in this category with a SAG nomination to boot. That’s enough to overcome the smallness of this film.
(5) Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right – The buzz on this movie has gone so far down that it seems like Bening and that’s it at this point. This is a classic 6-for-5 category, and it looks like Ruffalo will be the unfortunate sixth man.
(8) Matt Damon in True Grit - As stated before, this is a 6-for-5 category, meaning nobody else has a shot. If anyone has any chance of breaking that, it’ll be Damon in this blockbuster.
(7) Sam Rockwell in Conviction – Rockwell seemed like he might have a chance if he got a SAG nomination, but he didn’t so he’s out.
(10) Michael Douglas in Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps – Thankfully, it looks like now we don’t have to give Michael Douglas a sympathy nomination.
(NR) Jim Broadbent in Another Year – This film’s late release means the positive reviews are coming out right at Oscar time. Of course that means it also was unable to build any buzz. But it’s never wise to leave a past winner out of the top ten.

Dropping Out: Armie Hammer in The Social Network (9)

Best Supporting Actress

(1) Melissa Leo in The Fighter – With a Golden Globe win the crown jewel of her impressive precursor haul, Leo is the biggest lock in this category.
(2) Helena Bonham-Carter in The King’s Speech – Just when it seemed like her campaign was wavering, Carter rebounded with some late precursor love, sweeping the run of final-week precursor nominations. She’s a sure thing now.
(5) Amy Adams in The Fighter – Like Supporting Actor, this is also a classic 6-for-5 race. Meaning there are a group of six people who have a shot for a nomination and that’s it. With two locks, it’s really a 4-for-3 race in that any of these next four have a near-equal shot at a nomination. Adams gets the third slot on the strength of the overall love for the film.
(4) Hailiee Steinfeld in True Grit – Steinfeld feels like a lock, but it’s hard to put her above fourth. Not because of the lack of a Golden Globe nod (that’s meaningless), but because there is confusion as to whether she should be categorized as a lead or a supporting performer and that could lead to votes being split near in half. I imagine that most Academy members will follow the tradition of putting a teen in her first role in the supporting category (even if she is the film’s main character) and she’ll get enough votes to get in, but don’t be surprised by a Keisha Castle-Hughes-like last minute switch that finds her nominated as a lead in place of Nicole Kidman.
(6) Mila Kunis in Black Swan – It’s boring, but I’ll give the last slot to the fifth SAG nominee in this category and predict an complete match. That hardly ever happens, but this year it looks like it will. And here’s why…
(3) Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom - For this film, the studio employed a strategy of making it the first screener delivered to every Academy member and critic with a vote in a major precursor. That worked in spades when Weaver jumped out to an early lead in this category, but lately we’ve seen the buzz for the film and performance waver – as clearly evidenced by her missing out on a SAG nomination. If she’d gotten a guild nomination she would have been a lock, now it appears she’ll be just left out of the party unless there’s a Steinfeld switch.
(7) Kristin Scott Thomas in Nowhere Boy – This is a real six-horse race: Nobody can break passed the sextet at the top of this list. So here’s your consolation prize, Kristin – the knowledge that you were the most lauded performance without a shot.
(8) Barbara Hershey in Black Swan – The supporting love went entirely to Kunis for this film, leaving Hershey without a chance.
(9) Juliette Lewis in Conviction – She won the award from the Boston Society of Film Critics and that’s the last of her awards this season.
(10) Dianne Wiest in Rabbit Hole – Being a two-time Oscar winner in a film that’s likely to get at least one nomination at least gets you on the list.

Best Director

(1) David Fincher for The Social Network – With his Golden Globe win, Fincher has firmly asserted himself the king of this year’s director mountain.
(2) Christopher Nolan for Inception – It took a heady dreamscape film with an ambiguous ending, but Nolan is finally going to get nominated in this category.
(4) Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan – Quietly, Aronofsky has notched almost as many notices as the top two on this chart. He’s also quietly become a lock for his first Best Director nomination.
(3) Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech – Hooper just keeps hanging on. Just when he needed a precursor, he got it. And just when I was ready to leave him out unless he got a DGA nomination, he got the Guild recognition he needed. Now he’s poised for a nomination.
(6) Joel and Ethan Coen for True Grit – Like most things Grit, I have a hard time lending real credence to their missing a Guild nomination since some voters probably turned in their ballots before they got a chance to see this film. The miss hurts them, but not as much as it would have many other directors (see below). They’re so beloved by the Academy and this movie is such a mammoth hit, that they have a very slippery hold on this fifth slot.
(8) David O. Russell for The Fighter – This is extremely close, but I see Russell’s reputation as the thing that causes him to barely miss a nomination here. Though his getting in makes just as much sense as anybody in the top five.
(5) Danny Boyle for 127 Hours – Boyle was the guy who really needed a DGA nomination as this film is starting to fade into a distant early-awards season memory. He missed and now he’ll probably miss out on Oscar.
(7) Debra Granik for Winter’s Bone – Another director that absolutely needed a DGA nomination. She was gaining buzz and precursors – enough so that a DGA would have probably shot her into the top five – but now she’s a darkhorse at best.
(9) Ben Affleck for The Town – He hasn’t really received any attention, but the film has shown commendable staying power. And the Academy loves an actor/director.
(10) Lisa Cholodenko for The Kids Are All Right - It’s just so hard for a small comedy’s director to get nominated, even if she has picked up some precursor nominations.

Best Original Screenplay

Inception by Christopher Nolan – This race is heavy at the top, but this screenplay has distinguished itself by nearly doubling the second-highest precursor total in the category. It’s also the best chance for the Academy to give the film a major category win.
The King’s Speech by David Seidler – This is one of many screenplays that missed on a WGA nod only because it’s ineligible for that award. It was solid through the rest of the precursors and won’t have any trouble with a nomination..
The Kids Are All Right by Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg – Whenever a talkie comedy finds itself the subject of Oscar buzz, the biggest focus is always directed toward its screenplay. That’s definitely true here as Kids has picked up a Globe and WGA nod in this category and is poised to add an Oscar to that list.
Black Swan by Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John Mclaughlin – This has mostly been deemed a director’s and actors’ showcase, but it’s also gotten an impressive precursor haul for its screenplay with a WGA and Critics Choice award nomination in its kitty.
The Fighter by Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson – The fifth slot is pretty wide open in this category. So when in doubt, pick the Best Picture contender with a WGA nomination.
Another Year by Mike Leigh – This is the best chance for the Academy to give a nomination to one of its favorite filmmakers for one of his most acclaimed films. The Critics Choice nomination makes it a possibility.
Four Lions by Jesse Armstron, Sam Bain and Chris Morris – Outside of the mainstream, this is easily the most acclaimed screenplay of the year. Too bad it’s so far out of the screenplay.
Please Give by Nicole Holofcener – This got a surprise WGA nomination, but that’s really only because The King’s Speech was ineligible. Still, you can’t count it out.
Biutiful by Alejandro González Iñárritu, Armando Bo and Nicolás Giacobone – We’re running out of room fast, and the residual buzz from Cannes at least makes this a longshot.
Buried by Chris Sparling – There’s no such thing as bad publicity.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Social Network by Aaron Sorkin – Every single precursor that has awarded a Best Screenplay award so far this season has given it to Sorkin. Every single one.
True Grit by Joel & Ethan Coen – And this has been the runner-up in just about every one of those precursors. In any other year, it would easily own the first spot.
127 Hours by Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy – With this now on the fringes of the Best Picture race and all but out of Best Director, it looks like voters will choose to pour all their leftover love to its screenplay. As evidenced by the WGA nomination.
Toy Story 3 by Michael Arndt – Recent rule changes mean this is now an adapted screenplay (it used to be that the adaptation had to come from another medium). But nothing should change with regards Pixar’s normal perfunctory screenplay nomination.
Winter’s Bone by Debra Granik and Anne Roselini – This could go one of three ways, but I’ll pick the screenplay with the second most precursors in this category. It might’ve been made a lock by the WGAs if it weren’t for its being ineligible. I’ll count that as enough for a nomination.
The Town by Ben Affleck, Peter Craign and Aaron Stockard – This picked up the all-important WGA nomination, but, again, that’s because both Toy Story 3 and Winter’s Bone were ineligible. It’s not quite enough to get it in for an Oscar.
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World by Michael Bacall and Edgar Wright – This got a fair amount of love from the precursors, but not enough for it to overcome the heavyweights at the top – but don’t rule out the surprise, the Academy loves offbeat comedies in the fifth slot.
The Ghost Writer by Robert Harris and Roman Polanski - Because you can never count out an Oscar titan and a critical darling.
Rabbit Hole by David Lindsay Abaire – This was a surprising exclusion from the WGA list. And that miss pretty much doomed its chances.
I Love You Phillip Morris by John Recqua and Glenn Ficarra – This picked up the surprise WGA nomination that came from the exclusion of two favorites. It was so surprising that the WGA is the only precursor that’s been thrown this screenplay’s way.

Dropping Out:

Best Picture

(1) The Social Network – Golden Globe, check. Critics Awards near-sweep, check. Oscar nomination – go ahead and check that box too.
(2) The King’s Speech – This one appeared to be slipping and then it picked up an upset win over The Social Network at the Producers Guild of America Awards. Looks like the Weinsteins still have some campaign tricks up their sleeves.
(3) Inception – This sci-fi mindbender actually managed to announce the second-most precursors this awards season. This would have been a lock even with five nominations – very impressive.
(6) True Grit – This missed everything early, but swept everything after everybody actually got to see the movie. The fact that it’s on pace to make over $150 million at the box office is that rare prestige success story that the Oscars latch on to.
(5) Black Swan – Another nutty box office success. This movie is a lock to make over $100 million despite looking like nothing more than a tiny indie a few months ago. It’s got the precursors and the success of an Oscar lock.
(9) The Fighter – This has the crowd-pleasing of Slumdog Millionaire to go along with the prestige cred of a Mike Leigh film. That rare combination makes it a surefire nominee. Did I mention this is also going to make $100 million?
(4) Toy Story 3 – This is the last of the locks, and its hold is somewhat tenuous. Still, it’s hard to see how a $400 million behemoth with reviews better than any other film’s could miss on a nomination.
(10) The Kids Are All Right – This is where it gets tricky. Three of the next four will get in, and they all have about a near-equal chance. I’ll put Kids at the top of the list on the strength of its Golden Globe comedy win and the fear Academy members might feel if they don’t vote for it.
(8) Winter’s Bone – Missing the PGA takes it out of lock status. Being ineligible for a WGA means we don’t know how well the writers like it. But those two SAG nominations is enough to make this one look pretty safe.
(7) 127 Hours – Falling fast, this is holding onto this slot by a thread. Its buzz just peaked way to early. Still, I think it has enough to squeak in over…
(11) The Town – This held strong all through Oscar season, but there’s really nothing on its precursor list to suggest it’s on a pace to beat out either of the films at 8, 9 or 10. It does have almost as a good a shot, however.
(12) Rabbit Hole – And now, the films that have no chance. Let’s see Rabbit Hole has a Best Actress nominee and some buzz – let’s put it twelfth!
(13) Blue Valentine – This movie has two likely nominees and The Weinsteins! I smell upset! (Not really).
(14) Shutter Island – Hey everyone, remember when Martin Scorsese directed a movie this year with Leonardo DiCaprio in it? Yeah, neither does the Academy.
(NR) Scott Pilgrim vs. The World – Wow, this movie got five precursor mentions. That’s definitely enough to make this list. An honor like no other, I’m sure.

Dropping Out: Never Let Me Go (15)

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