Edge of Tomorrow had everything going for it… except an ad campaign that could reveal the idea in a way that got audiences excited about it. The Fault in Our Stars had everything going against it… except that’s a total lie, it was primed to be a big hit. Basically, the expected happened this weekend.
|1||The Fault in Our Stars||$48,200,000||$15,191||$48,200,000|
|3||Edge of Tomorrow||$29,105,000||$8,340||$29,105,000|
|4||X-Men: Days of Future Past||$14,700,000 (-54.8)||$4,040||$189,101,000|
|5||A Million Ways to Die in the West||$7,189,000 (-57.2)
|10||Million Dollar Arm||$1,822,000 (-49.2)||$1,109||$31,347,000|
The Fault in Our Stars had a production budget of $12 Million. Even with a marketing campaign that might have been pricey, the film is likely already in profit. That said, the film may struggle to get past $100 Million as $26 Million of that weekend came from Friday and the Thursday late night screenings (that are now being added to Fridays). As a somewhat original property, it could have word of mouth legs. It could also plummet 60% or more next weekend.
Maleficent dropped a little over fifty, which means it should be over $150 Million next weekend, but that might be the last major milestone. $200 Million domestic is likely out of reach, as it has been for so many pictures this summer. The film has already cleared $200 Million internationally, and it may not be done, so it will probably get close to half a billion worldwide.
Edge of Tomorrow is also performing like gangbusters overseas, where it made $111 Million, but domestically, it is only likely to get to $75 Million-ish. Perhaps there could be some sort of uptick or light drop as Cruise may have older fans who don’t go to the box office opening weekend, but Warner Brothers likely knows that international is the name of the game.
Days of Future Past is going to get past $200 Million, maybe next weekend, while there’s still a question if Godzilla can limp past that goal line. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is out of the top ten, just about four million shy of $200, but where Godzilla may be the lowest grosser of the three, it’s also the one most likely to make money. These movies were costly, and we may be a summer or two away from franchise fever delivering a bomb. The trajectory of the new Amazing Spider-Man movies’ box office suggests the next one is likely to make $150 Million-ish. X-Men is growing internationally, but this movie was more expensive than it should have been, and will only do in the same range as the film’s best grosses domestically, which means it’ll be matching the numbers of films released a decade ago. Chasing the Marvel dollar may lead some studios to go bust.
Speaking of going bust: A Million Ways to Die in the West.
Reality Check: Everything, everything is in its right place according to my predictions, but I went a little low on Fault, and thought West might have a softer tumble. Still, I feel pretty good about it.
What did you watch this weekend?