A Fault In Our Stars

Tom Cruise was once the most reliable performer in cinema. He was once one of the last great movie stars. That time has passed for many reasons, some personal, some due to the cinematic tectonic plates that have shifted over the last thirty years. Which is why he’s poised to lose the weekend to a movie starring Shailene Woodley.

Yes, The Fault In Our Stars has seemingly worked a miracle by targeting its market through television and social media. But it’s also based on a popular book for that audience, and word coming out of screenings is that it’s good. With most teens out of school at this point (right?), it could score big. Some are saying thirties, some are suggesting a little higher. I think it has the chance to break out big.

Edge of Tomorrow is also being well received, but it’s coming after a month of similar (though not the same) male-drive action-centric movies. But this doesn’t have a brand name. In some ways you would think it might work to the film’s advantage, and it might play a little longer than, say, Godzilla will/has, but opening is the name of the game, and the film is likely to do much better worldwide than it will fare domestically.

May showed that franchise pictures can open big, but have very little staying power. Neighbors opened to $49 Million, and might be able to triple that. We could be getting to a point that if a summer film does three times its opening it’s considered a miracle. But it seems like you’ve got to open in the summer. Gravity and Frozen more recently showed that pictures can have legs, so it’s possible one or both of the films opening this weekend will catch on. But to misquote another of the biggest franchises out right now, the odds are not in their favor.

So let’s do this:

  1. The Fault in Our Stars - $42.5 Million
  2. Maleficent – $32 Million
  3. Edge of Tomorrow -$28.7 Million
  4. X-Men 7 – $13.5 Million
  5. A Million Ways to Die in the West – $10 Million

Audiences didn’t go crazy for West, so it’s possible that it could tumble even harder, so ten million is the best possible outcome for that film this weekend. I’m going high on Fault, but I think it’s been a while where something like that clicked, and this looks so clickable. I’m also probably going a bit high on Edge, but it’s summer. And I think Maleficent gets a slight boost by being a slightly original property, and for being a female led movie. It’s possible though it could lose some of its audience to Fault. We’ll see Sunday.

What are you going to watch this weekend?