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It’s Memorial Day weekend, which means school is almost out and summer actually begins (no matter what Hollywood would lead you to believe), and now there’s a new X-Men movie from original series director Bryan Singer. The film looks to be a huge hit, and should open big over the weekend, though the director is unlikely to throw a party to celebrate.

X-Men: Days of Future Past is looking to have the franchise’s biggest opening weekend ever, which would mean topping X-Men: The Last Stand‘s $102 Million for the three day and $123 for the four day. Looking, that is, as it may not make it. Considering Last Stand was viewed as an opening weekend picture (it made $234 Million total) and considering that Fox spent untold millions on Days, doing Last Stand business would mark Future Past as a failure.

And with Singer currently in legal trouble that could end his career, if this film doesn’t do spectacularly well, there’s going to be some problems. Can this be the first X-Men film to clear $250 Million domestically, could it be the first to clear $300? Somehow I doubt it. It’s the third superhero movie in the last two months, and while people love the Marvel Cinematic Universe, this doesn’t have the same appeal. It seems unlikely that this film will lead to mass repeat viewings (what does anymore?), and reviews suggest it’s pretty good. At least it should fare better than The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which was met with mixed reviews and some outright scorn. Perhaps it’s that — much like the comics these films are based on — it’s apparent that this is one chapter and maybe less of a meal than hoped for. But Future Past is well liked, and so even if it turns out to be as disappointing (if not more so than the Spider-Man) fiscally, Fox is likely to put on a good game face if the films clears $200 Million domestic and $600 Million worldwide.

Also coming out this weekend is the Adam Sandler-Drew Barrymore vehicle Blended, which is looking at a $30-ish opening. I’m not going to be surprised if this one clears $100 Million domestic by the end of June. What will be most interesting to see is if Godzilla holds well, and if takes away some business from Days of Future Past. That film could completely capsize in its second weekend, though (even if it’s based on a sixty year old film) it feels a little fresher in the scheme of things.

So let’s make up some numbers (for the three day):

  1. X-Men 7 - $100.1 Million
  2. Godzilla – $42.5 Million
  3. Blended – $28.3 Million
  4. Neighbors – $15 Million

If X-Men doesn’t do over a hundred for the three day (and over $200 Million worldwide), it’s going to have a hard time making a profit as Fox has said it’s their second most expensive movie ever behind Avatar. Fox has a lot of eggs in this basket, Singer or no Singer.

What are yo going to watch this weekend?