Godzilla

Well, this summer has been a little unpredictable so far, but it looks like Godzilla will definitely dominate this weekend. The question is if it can do over $150 Million domestic, and what the international numbers are like. As this summer’s shown, getting to a $60-$70 Million (or even $90 Million) is no guarantee of over $150-$200 Million.

Godzilla has a listed production budget of $160 Million. Which, if it does Pacific Rim business, means it’s in a good place to make money. Rim made $100 domestic, but over $300 internationally, where Godzilla looks to do better domestically, but may not have as much appeal in China as Pac Rim did. The film is looking to clear $60 Million in its opening weekend, which means $150 domestic is likely and it could get a memorial weekend bounce, so a $200 domestic could happen. It may also benefit — as 2008′s Star Trek did — from being more satisfying for audiences than the first big summer movie, so a strong start could lead to a plateau.

Neighbors should also be playing strong. So it will be interesting to see how Million Dollar Arm enters this environment. It could play to a crowd who isn’t being serviced right now, to older people, but I don’t know. It’s relatively cheap, so Disney might let it go.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is likely to fall to $14 or $15 Million this weekend. Which means its grand total will be around $170 Million domestic, and it may then struggle to get over $200 Million. Whatever bounce it might get from the holiday weekend will likely be negated by losing almost all of its large format screens. Even if Spider-Man fell only 50% this weekend, that’s around $18 Mill, which puts it closer to $180 Million, but all that would mean is that at best the film gets to, what, $220 Million at best? So when does Sony start backing off its Spider-plans?

Here’s my predictions:

  1. Gojira - $63.7 Million
  2. Neighbors - $28.5 Million
  3. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $14.7 Million
  4. Million Dollar Arm - $13.5 Million

Godzilla could go higher, which is the good news.

What are you going to watch this weekend?