Andrew Garfield;Paul Giamatti

This weekend The Amazing Spider-Man 2 made a whole lot of money. But not as much money as Captain America: The Winter Soldier, and way less money than the last two movies to open on the first week of May. What does that mean?

Film Weekend Per Screen Total
1 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $92,000,000 $21,277 $92,000,000
2 The Other Woman $14,200,000 (-42.7%) $4,385 $47,345,000
3 Heaven Is for Real $8,700,000 (-39.4%) $2,969 $65,600,000
4 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $7,762,000 (-52.1%) $2,442 $237,143,000
5 Rio 2 $7,600,000 (-45.3%)
$2,293 $106,470,000
6 Brick Mansions $3,545,000 (-62.8%) $1,339 $15,482,000
7 Divergent $2,175,000 (-40.6%) $1,327 $142,662,000
8 The Quiet Ones $2,000,000 (-48.5%) $987 $6,761,000
9 God’s Not Dead $1,769,000 (-37.0%) $1,330 $55,564,000
10 The Grand Budapest Hotel $1,735,000 (-29.4%) $1,963 $51,506,000

With $92 Million, Spider-Man is in the sweet spot of making just enough money to be boring: it’s neither a fiasco nor a home run. Cap 2 opened to more money and should tap out a little over $250 Million. That number is a success for The Winter Soldier because it’s more than the first film, and shows growth in interest. $250 Million for Spider-Man 2 would make it the lowest grossing Spider-Man film ever.

On top of which the film faces more direct competition as there weren’t any event films in Cap’s wake, while Spider-Man faces Godzilla in two weeks and X-Men: Days of Future Past the week after. And next week the film should tumble at least fifty percent, and it could possibly fall out of first place depending on how big Neighbors is.

It all depends on word of mouth, which seems divided on the internet (such is life). But as a sequel this could be front-loaded, which means that it could drop 60-70% next weekend and not get to $200 Million domestic. The film needs to make at least $750 Million worldwide to break even as the reported budget is $255 Million, with word being they spent nearly $200 Million on advertising. How much of that is actual spending and how much is mitigated by these mixed promos (like the film’s NBA and post office ads) is hard to say because the studios don’t want anyone to know. The film will make over half a billion worldwide for sure, but if it doesn’t cross $750 Million it will be the lowest grossing Spider-Man movie worldwide.

Otherwise, The Other Woman looks like a sleeper hit, and if Fox was smart they should be close to making money on it, while religious movies are still making a lot of bank.

Reality Check: I went a little low on Spidey, I was off by about two million, but I was in the right ballpark. Honestly, we could see that weekend number adjusted down tomorrow, so I’m okay with that.

What did you watch this weekend?