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Rio 2 is opening this weekend. As someone who often waits a couple minutes after a show starts so I can skip through the commercials, and as someone without kids, I have little awareness of this franchise. The first film was a massive hit, but we’re also at a point now where animated movies are hitting almost every month of the year. Though, perhaps a little surprisingly, there’s no big May animated title.

Mr. Peabody and Sherman are wrapping up their run, and Muppets Most Wanted never got much traction, so there’s a wide open playing field, but it’s hard to say if Rio gets as much play as something like Frozen in family households. So a solid thirty million plus is likely, but it could explode.

But that’s not enough to knock Captain America: The Winter Soldier out of first place. Marvel took a risk by putting the film out in April, one that now seems justified, but it may have also driven the film’s opening weekend. Will it get over $250 Million, could it do $300? It’s going to clearly make more than the first film (which grossed $176 stateside, a number it should top sometimes next week), but after that it’s hard to say. $200 Million is happening, but after that it could trail off. Divergent opened to $54 Million, and won’t get over $150, so a 3x opening isn’t guaranteed.

Also opening wide this weekend is Draft Day. I liked the film, but it skews older, which means it could play long and with an audience, but it might have had a little more impact if Kevin Costner hadn’t just appeared in Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Three Days to Kill. I’ve heard repeatedly of people being in the theaters and having seen trailers for all three movies back to back to back, so there may be some Costner fatigue, even if this is the best of the bunch. Still, it’s a solid movie, and may find a long life on cable.

And then there’s Oculus, which doesn’t have a lot of names (though we love Karen Gillan), but does have the benefit of being cheap and hitting in a time frame where we haven’t seen a lot of horror. It should do modest but solid business.

So anyway:

  1. Captain America 2 - $45 Million
  2. Rio 2 - $34 Million
  3. Oculus – $11.5 Million
  4. Draft Day – $10.3 Million
  5. Noah – $7.9 Million

Oculus could go higher, Draft Day could go a little higher or lower, and Rio 2 could surprise as an animated film (they rarely track perfectly). But still. I think Cap 2 holds slightly better than expected because of word of mouth.

What are you going to see this weekend?