Perhaps Paramount didn’t screw up their approach with Noah as much as it seems they did. Though it wasn’t screened for critics in chunks of the country and they seemed unsure of how to sell the picture or its religious trappings, the film opened to a nearly hundred million dollar worldwide weekend. While Sabotage died. Embarrassingly so.
|3||Muppets Most Wanted||$11,373,000 (-33.1)||$3,561||$33,210,000|
|4||Mr. Peabody & Sherman||$9,500,000 (-19.7)||$2,880||$94,909,000|
|5||God’s Not Dead||$9,075,000 (-1.5)
|6||The Grand Budapest Hotel||$8,825,000 (+30.0)||$9,033||$24,457,000|
|8||Need For Speed||$4,335,000 (-45.4)||$1,603||$37,753,000|
|9||300: Rise of an Empire||$4,300,000 (-49.4)||$1,653||$101,145,000|
But, first thing’s first: God’s Not Dead added four hundred screens and basically flatlined. That’s a word of mouth hit if there ever was one, and though it’s unlikely to be able to expand and maintain that success, it could match up to Son of God’s numbers, which means a $60 Million total. It would be odd if it got higher than that.
Noah looked like it would suffer from controversy, but perhaps religious leaders stayed away from attacking the film for not matching their vision of Noah, because visualizing that story is hard. But there was no fervor against, and if those international numbers continue, the movie is likely to get to $100 Million domestic, and $200 plus worldwide, which would make it a win.
Divergent hasn’t opened internationally yet, but even as it dropped about half, it’s closing in on a hundred domestic, though it seems unlikely to get to $200 Million. Which means that if the sequel doesn’t expand the fanbase, they might stop there. But right now there’s just enough momentum to want to make that sequel.
Muppets held better than expexted, as did Mr. Peabody. but both will be modest disappointments as they’re likely to just turn a profit at best theatrically. Though they’ll surely be in the green by the time of home video. Still.
The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded well, and though it’s hard to say if it can go much further, it seems likely to make in the $50 Million range, which would make it one of the highest earners in Wes Anderson‘s career. 300 2 crossed the hundred million dollar mark, and since international is stronger, it has a shot at leading to a third film.
Sabotage opened to less than The Last Stand, even with a more famous supporting cast. Arnold Schwarzenegger is done now, seriously, and even appearances in sequels to his famous films might be off the table. A six million dollar opening suggests he’s toxic.
Reality Check: Though I didn’t exactly go high on Sabotage, it made about half of what I predicted. And Noah opened better than I thought it would, while — though I was right on with my Grand Budapest numbers — I didn’t think God’s Not Dead would flatline because few films do.
What are you going to watch this weekend?