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Is the Divergent opening good enough? On paper, yes. The film should get to $150-ish domestic without too much problem, and could even get to $200 Million. But in the new blockbuster model, that may not be enough. Oh, and the new Muppets movie tanked.

Film Weekend Per Screen Total
1 Divergent $56,000,000 $14,228 $56,000,000
2 Muppets Most Wanted $16,514,000 $5,170 $16,514,000
3 Mr. Peabody & Sherman $11,700,000 (-46.4) $3,244 $81,002,000
4 300: Rise of an Empire $8,665,000 (-54.9) $2,809 $93,753,000
5 God’s Not Dead $8,564,000
$10,979 $8,564,000
6 Need For Speed $7,781,000 (-56.4) $2,498 $30,404,000
7 The Grand Budapest Hotel $6,750,000 (+85.5) $22,204 $12,961,000
8 Non-Stop $6,346,000 (-40.2) $2,155 $78,261,000
9 The LEGO Movie $4,115,000 (-46.6) $1,645 $243,352,000
10 The Single Mom’s Club $3,100,000 (-61.6) $1,653 $12,910,000

First, Muppets Most Wanted. Perhaps it was Muppets Mostly Contractually Obligated? Critics didn’t go crazy for it like they did the first film (96 vs. 77% on Rotten Tomatoes), while the film didn’t feel as aggressively marketed. It seems unlikely the third film will come out two years from now.

Divergent made a lot of money, but didn’t do blockbuster numbers, in that there are film who have opened to similar numbers that only got a little above $100 Million, while others got to $250 plus. The ones that did that well were growers, though. This could be a grower, but word isn’t so positive that word of mouth isn’t as viable a factor as it was in previous $55-ish openers like Despicable Me and Gravity. The best comparison in that opening range is Snow White and the Huntsman, which opened to a little over $56 Million and finished at $155 Million. As long as there’s some international interest, the film should turn a profit, but these numbers don’t scream franchise. It needs to hold next weekend. If it can stay in first place, it’s got a chance. If it loses to Noah, that’s a problem.

Mr. Peabody is holding better than you’d expect, but after it gets to $100 Million, it’s not going to go much further, while 300 2 is at nearly $300 Million worldwide. Speaking of, Need for Speed is making a lot of money internationally as it’s almost made $100 Million overseas.

God’s Not Dead is a Christian movie that targeted its audience well. It could make a little over thirty million, so yes, there is an audience for this, but the production of these things is best left to the fringes because Hollywood couldn’t make them as successfully, or as profitably. Which is why this happens. When Hollywood gets involved they make films like Noah.

The Grand Budapest Hotel could become Wes Anderson‘s most successful movie. All it has to do is make more than $52 Million.

Reality Check: I was pretty close on Divergent, and gave Muppets more credit than it deserved.

What did you watch this weekend?