non stop 10

Well, it’s going to be a close race this weekend as Non-Stop enters the fray, as does Son of God, both fighting against reigning champ The LEGO Movie. And there’s the Oscars, so it’s a movie-centric weekend. Who will take the top slot? Likely the Liam Neesons movie, but it could go to any one of the three.

Neeson has cemented his status as an old badass and as an action star, though he doesn’t always guarantee great results. The Taken movies have become a phenomenon. Without Taken in the title, Neeson fares less well, but still, films like Unknown and The Grey opened to around twenty million. This should do a little more than those, we’d guess around twenty five, but being stuck on an airplane means there won’t be too many big action set pieces, and the film has been getting (no surprise) pretty mixed reviews. That won’t matter in an opening weekend, but this probably won’t cross the hundred million dollar mark, though its international prospects are much better.

Son of God is a cut down version of the television mini-series The Bible that aired last year. Which means there’s not much new, but still it’s likely that the audience who will respond to this has been targeted, and that the opening weekend should be robust. But the audience who could go to this are that much harder to pin down in regards to tracking. It could score much higher than predicted, or it could be a total bust.

And The LEGO Movie has no real competition for the family audience, though surely some will take their kids to Son of God, but considering that LEGO has been a hit with kids and adults alike, it’s going to play well during its fourth week out, and will cross the $200 Million line.

So let’s predict:

  1. Non-Stop - $25.5 Million
  2. The LEGO Movie - $20.7 Million
  3. Son of God - $18 Million
  4. 3 Days to Kill – $5.7 Million
  5. RoboCop - $5.2 Million

Son of God is hard to pin down. I’m going to go low, but you never know.

What are you going to watch this weekend?