There are two wide releases this weekend looking to challenge The LEGO Movie‘s run at the top of the box office. Will either make a dent? It seems unlikely.

Paul W. S. Anderson has carved out a niche career for himself as one of the only pure exploitation filmmakers working today on a studio level. The films are generally done on a budget, and usually offer international appeal — often more so than domestic appeal. The films are usually made for under a hundred million, and he normally turns a profit. Perhaps Pompeii was made because of his success with the last couple of Resident Evil movies. This one’s not going to make a big splash and early reviews aren’t kind. No surprise. But we’d expect the film to make a lot more money overseas, and that was likely the goal all along.

Then there’s Three Days to Kill starring Kevin Costner. This might have been a bigger deal if Costner wasn’t in so many movies over the next couple months. Costner’s definitely been active, but audiences don’t seem to care that he’s back. Expect meh grosses on this one, at least domestically. As it was produced by Luc Besson, it’s likely to have a greater international draw. That’s the name of the game as RoboCop is currently doing much better abroad than in America. Stateside is a secondary concern for a lot of movies now.

And The LEGO Movie? Well, it should end the weekend over $180 Million, which means that it will be over $200 Million next weekend, and has a good chance of playing strong into March. $300 Million is not out of the question. Big time.

So let’s lay it out:

  1. The LEGO Movie - $35.5 Million
  2. About Last Night - $13 Million
  3. Pompeii - $11.7 Million
  4. Three Days to Kill - $10 Million
  5. RoboCop - $9.4 Million

Non-Stop could do well next weekend, but as Unknown (remember that one) didn’t exactly set the world on fire, and the film isn’t titled Taken 3, it probably won’t top The LEGO Movie.

What are you going to watch this weekend?