It’s a relatively slow weekend at the box office, with one new release (The Legend of Hercules) and two pictures expanding (Her, Lone Survivor), which means that we’re in the heart of award season movies, and January releases. Mostly adult fare, but then also, Frozen is turning into a phenomenon, so it could be an interesting race for the top slot.

Hercules looks like crap, so I wouldn’t expect it to chart all that high. It’s opening, it stars Kellan Lutz, but Twilight didn’t launch anyone into movie star status, and certainly not Lutz. Still there’s something about a good old fashion exploitation pic that makes this sort of charming. It’s a cheap knock-off meant to be rushed to theaters before the Dwayne Johnson/Brett Ratner film. It’s almost surprising that they aren’t attaching a trailer of the bigger film to this one. Whatever. It will be forgotten in two weeks.

Lone Survivor hasn’t gotten any Oscar Buzz, but with so few new options, and with Mark Wahlberg, it is likely the winning film this weekend. It’s hard to say how Her will do in a wide release as Spike Jonze has an audience, but it’s hard to know if they’ll rush out to theaters now that it’s everywhere. It’s considered one of the best films of the year, but… we’ll see.

But then Frozen is on a roll and just barreled past $300 Million, while The Wolf of Wall Street is still playing, and Paramount is pushing it. We just ran some interviews, and guild nominations suggest it’s going to net 10-12 Oscar nominations. Getting to $100 Million is now definitely on the table as it may leave this weekend at $80 Million-ish, while American Hustle should pull past $100 Million this weekend.

So let’s predict:

  1. Lone Survivor – $15.7 Million
  2. Frozen – $14.9 Million
  3. Her – $10.5 Million
  4. The Wolf of Wall Street – $9.9 Million
  5. American Hustle – $9.4 Million

And then Sunday we’ll figure out how right (or wrong) those predictions are.

What are you going to watch this weekend?