TMO-FF-002

There are exactly two official stills for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which suggests that Paramount thinks they’re going to make a quick buck on the film, but have no interest in a heavy push. They will make money, that’s for sure. These films are usually done for cheap, run about ninety minutes, and have solid opening weekends and die a quick death. There’s no reason to think this one won’t do the same.

The question is if the audience of the original films will show up with the same numbers for this spin-off. Likely not. The first film was a phenomenon, the sequels have all done really well on opening, with Paranormal Activity 4 the lowest opener at $29 Million. This one is being aimed specifically at Latino audiences. These films, and exorcism/ghost story films in general do well in the Latino marketplace, the question is if targeting them specifically will alienate white audiences.

It might. But also since it’s the only new picture, and the only thing that seems aimed at 18-30-year-old men it could also surge higher than expected. This is an off season release, and the first film of 2014. It could get to or over $30 Million, but probably won’t, as tracking currently puts the film around the $15 Million range.

Which means it could be bested by either The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, or Frozen. The older films are still playing. Things don’t really heat up until January 17, when films like Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along hit screens. For now, it’s going to be relatively quiet.

So, predictions:

  1. Frozen – $18.5 Million
  2. Paranormal Activity 4.5 – $17.9 Million
  3. The Hobbit 2 – $17 Million
  4. American Hustle – $15 Million
  5. Anchorman 2 – $14 Million

The Marked Ones is a wild card. Tracking could be off and it could explode, while Frozen could do a bit less, but it is the family film of the season, and this is the last weekend of the winter vacation period. We’ll see on Sunday.

What are you going to watch this weekend?