This past week has seen The Golden Globes and SAG announce their nominees. Has everyone seen all the films in contention at this point? Maybe. But it’s just as likely that The Wolf of Wall Street wasn’t screened for everyone, though that didn’t stop the Globes from nominating the film and Leonardo DiCaprio. Such is awards season.

Of the two, the better barometer is SAG. Not only are members of its committee actual academy members, they represent the largest voting block of it. The five films they’ve nominated are 12 Years a Slave, American HustleAugust: Osage County, Dallas Buyers Club  and Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

The Golden Globes nominated Slave, Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena, and Rush for best dramas and Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, and The Wolf of Wall Street for best comedies.

The best way to look at this at those on both lists have the strongest chances. Which makes Slave and Hustle the best bets, though it’s possible that voters could cool on the latter by the time of the actual nominations. It was one of the last films seen, and though David O. Russell‘s films have become awards favorites, Variety wrote a piece this week saying “slow your hype roll, the movie’s not that great.” Our own reviewed it, and when I spoke to him this weekend, had cooled on the film since seeing it. But some put it at the top of their best films of the year lists, so there are fans out there.

The Weinstein’s seemed to have cocked up their forward movement on August: Osage County, and there’s some controversy about what cut they’re going with, which means they may press hardest on Philomena, and possibly on Lee Daniels’ The Butler. But that film is about to hit home video, and Philomena could still expand and find a bigger audience. There’s more money in it. If they can get Michael B. Jordan a nomination for Fruitvale Station, that’s the win, but it looks out of the cards.

The one award that feels like close to a lock to me right now is Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine. She’s won for supporting in previous years, but she’s a great actress, and amazing in the film, compared to Sandra Bullock (it doesn’t seem like the academy would want to give her two). Meryl Streep recently won, Judi Dench already has one and Philomena‘s a lighter role, Emma Thompson already has two Oscars, they’re not going to nominate Brie Larson, etc.

The other that feels pretty strong is Jared Leto in Dallas, but he could get in the way of his own win as he’s known as problematic and odd. It’s possible that James Gandolfini could win posthumously, but it would be easier if it was a more serious role. The main competition would be Michael Fassbender, who’s been so great lately that he could take it, but he’s also said he wouldn’t campaign.

The year’s almost over, so things are about to get real as the screeners are out, and there’s nothing left to hide.

What film are you most pulling for this year?