After a stunning three-week run at the top of the charts, it looks like Bad Grandpa will finally dethrone Gravity from the top spot. It was great while it lasted.

The Jackass crew know what they’re doing and generally their films are made on the cheap. They shoot home video, the quality doesn’t have to be excellent, and the only names are the people behind it. The production (depending on back end deals versus upfront payments) likely cost less than two million after you take out the top-end crew. So even a twenty million dollar opening would get the film near profit. But it will likely make more than that. Jackass 3D opened to $50 Million not that long ago, and this will do less, but Bad Grandpa has the ability to get near or around $40 Million. And though the fanbase from when the show started in 2000 is not as likely to run out opening weekend, there are new fans and the juvenile spirit should keep teens interested.

Alas, The Counselor looks to be DOA. Reviews suggest the film will be divisive and Fox has not shown a lot of muscle pushing the film. That’s a bad combination, and though it won’t be the most embarrassing film of the year (how could it be after The Fifth Estate), it may not make it to ten million.

So let’s do this:

  1. Bad Grandpa - $32.5 Million
  2. Gravity - $21 Million
  3. Captain Phillips – $12.3 Million
  4. The Counselor – $8.5 Million
  5. Carrie - $6.9 Million

This also means that Gravity should be able to cross the $200 Million dollar mark this weekend, and should get over $250 Million domestic. That’s huge. But next weekend brings Ender’s Game, which should take a lot of its Imax screens. Grandpa could go higher, much higher, but it isn’t a Jackass sequel, so there’s some wiggle room there.

What are you going to watch this weekend?