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This weekend should test the staying (and grossing) power of Gravity, as it’s been on top for two weeks. It seems unlikely that it will be able to defeat Bad Grandpa when that hits theaters next weekend, but this weekend, with Carrie, Escape Plan and The Fifth Estate, it could hold on to the top slot for a third weekend.

Carrie will make its money Friday, but it’s all about the teen audience. It looks like a very faithful remake, which means it’s likely to do similar numbers as the Evil Dead remake. Which is around $25 Million. That said, that seemed to have a little more buzz about it. This remake has bumped around Sony’s schedule (it was originally plotted for earlier this year), and the reviews are not all terrible but no one suggests this holds a candle to the Brian De Palma version, and it appears the screenwriter of the 1976 version is also credited here, which means there’s going to be a lot of similar scenes (as the trailers have suggested). Recently we saw Insidious Chapter 2 do incredible business, but that was a modern franchise. This is a remake. It’s a different beast entirely. and we’ve seen that millenials aren’t as drawn to them automatically. There’s a wiggle room here. The film could do $30 Million, but it could also do high teens.

Escape Plan is DOA. For a simple reason: Bullet to the Head made less than ten million and The Last Stand made a little over twelve million. Sure Stallone had hits resurrecting his most famous characters, and The Expendables franchise works because it packages so many action stars together, but on their own or even together it doesn’t mean much.

The Fifth Estate, as I said in my Oscar column, screened at Toronto to mixed to negative reviews, which means that it should be DOA this weekend. So the question is if Gravity takes another 20% dip, which would put it around $30 Million plus for the weekend.

So let’s do this:

  1. Gravity - $31.8 Million
  2. Carrie - $22.5 Million
  3. Captain Phillips - $17.5 Million
  4. Escape Plan - $12.3 Million
  5. The Fifth Estate – $ 7.5 Million

Carrie could go up or down a little, and Escape Plan could go much lower. and Gravity could surprise by not even dropping that much. This is pretty busy for a October weekend.

What are you going to watch this weekend?