These days, unless a film opens the week before a big holiday, the standard second week drop off is 30-40%, with often huge openings leading to a 50-60% decline in the second week. Gravity opened to $55 Million, which is pretty big. And in its second week is only off twenty percent. That’s unheard of these days, but Gravity is just that kind of picture.
|3||Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs 2||$14,200,000 (-32.2)||$3,665||$78,037,000|
|5||Runner Runner||$3,725,000 (-51.7)
|7||Insidious Chapter 2||$2,650,000 (-32.0)||$1,229||$78,447,000|
|9||Don Jon||$2,340,000 (-43.7)||$1,172||$20,141,000|
|10||Baggage Claim||$2,075,000 (-49.1)||$1,572||$18,272,000|
Next weekend brings three wide releases, but it’s possible that Gravity could top The Fifth Estate, Escape Plan and the Carrie remake. It’s likely the film will do around $30 Million next weekend, and that should be enough to stay in first. These numbers are phenomenal, and this means the film will do over $200 Million domestic, and once it passes $166 Million (which it might do next weekend) it will be the most successful October release ever, and it should play strong through the rest of the month.
Captain Phillips didn’t get hurt too bad by Gravity, and it could be on the path to $100 Million, which would be a win. But it’s not the event film that Gravity is, so it is more likely to be off 40% or more next weekend. Both play to adults, it could hang out for a while, and as it looks like The Fifth Estate is a non-starter, it doesn’t have much new competition. Much like Cloudy 2, which is chugging along for a $100 Million plus total. If international is strong, it should turn a profit, but it looks like the end of that franchise, as animation is never that cheap.
Machete Killed. Robert Rodriguez‘s latest is DOA, and that’s no surprise, but with all the names and ads, one might expect closer to a $10 Million opening weekend. The numbers on the first film weren’t good, so this is what happens when you make a sequel to a vanity project for Danny Trejo.
Otherwise, the other pictures are just in theaters, waiting to be swept out by the new titles. Right now it’s all about Gravity.
Reality Check: I thought Gravity would decimate Phillips, which it didn’t, and that Machete would at least open. So I was pretty wrong.
What did you watch this weekend?