The big difference between anything that opened between May 3 and last week was that almost every film that launched had the possibility of opening to near or over $100 Million. Until basically November, we’re out of the big movie season for a couple of months. 2 Guns should open respectfully, but until the next holiday season, expect pleasant surprises and nothing to open over $50 Million, unless Elysium packs a bigger punch than expected.
2 Guns is relying on something old fashioned in the summer business: Star power. Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg working together should bring in both Washington’s audience (which usually means a $20 million weekend by himself), and action fans/Wahlberg fans, which should give it enough juice to get near $30 Million, and maybe, just maybe, over it. But the action audience has been inundated with movie after movie this summer, so maybe they’re a little tired. Who’s to say? (note: I am.)
There’s also The Smurfs 2, which opened Wednesday. It looks like a lesser family film, and may not have the freshness or interest to get to the $140 Million range of its predecessor. That said, the first film did over $400 Million internationally, so that rumored third film is all but assured if this does anywhere near those numbers overseas. As with so many titles nowadays, international is the name of the game.
So let’s predict for the weekend:
- 2 Guns - $28.7 Million
- The Smurfs 2 - $25 Million
- The Wolverine – $21.5 Million
- The Conjuring – $13.4 Million
- Despicable Me 2 – $12 Million
So, not a bad weekend for the numbers, but nothing’s going to break any records.
What are you watching this weekend?