the-wolverine-first-full-trailer-arrives-at-last

Summer is over, at least for Hollywood. The Wolverine marks the last A+ title for the summer, while next week brings The Smurfs 2 and 2 Guns, neither of which are expected to break $200 (though they could). Pretty much everything after is either looking or hopeful to do over $100 Million or expected to do less. Arguably the strongest picture for all of August is Elysium.  But it’s no guaranteed winner.

As the summer is winding down, what have we seen and learned? Well, the studios haven’t learned much because they never do, but we’re seeing films hit faster and lose steam pretty quick, or maybe it seems that way right now. Iron Man 3 and The Great Gatsby started things off fairly strong, Star Trek was a bit of a disappointment (though the numbers aren’t terrible, it was in 3D and Imax and still made less than the first film domestically, which means the numbers were off dramatically). Box office-wise, Fast and Furious 6 was a hit, but it didn’t leave much of an impression.

But by Memorial Day weekend, things started to spell trouble. Epic, The Hangover Part 3, After Earth, The Internship, White House Down, The Lone Ranger, Pacific Rim, R.I.P.D., Turbo.  There’s enough failure there to go around. I point this out because yesterday other places listed the films that are already scheduled for 2015. And remember, it’s possible Star Wars: Episode VII could bomb. Steven Spielberg and George Lucas may have come across as pompous schmucks for talking about the collapse of the system, but many of these films cost over $200 Million. And though they might be saved by international, only one film made it over $300 Million this summer so far, and it looks like only one other film will cross that hurdle.

The other interesting thing to note: Some of these films were set out to fail. $200 Million dollar movies the studios knew would die. Think about that.

Anyway, predictions:

And then, who cares. I’m going low on The Wolverine. It’s possible it could go much higher, but though some like it, it might be catching the tail end of a meh summer, so I’m going to bet it’s a little disappointing. But it could get to $80-$90 if audiences think “oh yeah, I like that character.” Too bad the film supposedly starts strong and then falls off.

What are you going to watch this weekend?