the_heat_bullock_mccarthy

Last weekend saw huge numbers at the box office, and though this weekend may not have a film that tops $50 Million we should see at least five pictures over the $20 Million range. White House Down and The Heat are opening this weekend, and both should do well. But who wins?

It could be close, but for right now we’ll give the edge to White House Down. It’s the bigger movie (at least in terms of cost), and Channing Tatum is a huge star right now. And more than any movie previous this summer, it’s a role that seems tailor made for him, as is the role for Jamie Foxx. This is also the first big summer film to star a black actor. Sure, there’s been Iron Man 3 and Fast and Furious 6, but the roles of Don Cheadle and Tyrese Gibson , etc. have been as support. Such could rally black audiences.

But if African American performers have had a rough summer, so have women, who have also not held many starring roles for the last couple months. That, mixed with America’s love affair with Melissa McCarthy (and they still like Sandra Bullock as well) means that even if The Heat comes in second or third, it’s still going to be a winner, because with a $30 Million weekend (or more), it’s in a good place to make it to $100 Million domestic, and unless they horribly overspent, that should be more than enough to turn a profit.

This weekend also will show how hard Monsters University and World War Z can fall. Monsters could get to or over $300 Million, while World War Z could get to $200 Million domestic. Z is a little more fragile as something of a horror film. Those movies often have very steep declines, but this hasn’t acted much like a horror movie. Paramount is in an interesting position as Star Trek Into Darkness should have been bigger for them, while Z could have been a disaster. Both should have similar worldwide totals, but Z is the bigger victory. Monsters, as a sequel, could be front-loaded, but it could also be the second highest grossing film of the year, as animation often plays stronger, and it’s not like there’s any competition (at least until Wednesday).

So let’s predict:

  1. White House Down - $47,5 Million
  2. The Heat - $43 Million
  3. Monsters University - $42.7 Million
  4. World War Z - $29.3 Million
  5. Man of Steel - $21 Million

Big money weekend, if it all shakes out. Many have the top three all around the same numbers, so it could either way. But I think interest will surge, and it’s possible that WHD could get to a $60 Million total. Or $30 Million. There’s no real science to this.

What are you watching this weekend?