1170481 - This Is The End

There are two things to note about this weekend. Man of Steel can only disappoint, and This is the End can only come off well. But first, let me explain.

Man of Steel is a big summer tentpole release without a holiday weekend, and it has a straight (that is to say, no holiday) three day weekend ahead of itself. The film cost over $200 Million to make, and is part of big plans by Warner Brothers and DC to finally start building to their big Justice League movie. If the film does less than $100 Million for the three day, it looks weak. The only way for it to really impress is if it does near or over $200 Million for the three day. And that’s just not going to happen. So even if it crosses the nine digit mark by Sunday, that’s what’s expected, and that’s what’s needed. It should get over $100, but still.

Whereas This is the End was made for $31 Million, and has already made nearly eight million dollars. With a solid four or five million to add from Thursday — and great word of mouth — if the film is over $31 Million for its five day opening it’s already done the business of its budget and is in a good place to get to around $80 Million or possibly more. That all depends if Man of Steel sucks the air out of the room. But this should be able to do some solid numbers for the three day, and the only way it would disappoint is if Wednesday was its biggest day. But it should do well on Friday, and possibly Saturday as well. People will likely enjoy watching Seth Rogen and James Franco making fun of themselves.

As for everything else, well, they will definitely feel the impact of a huge tentpole release. The Purge is going to crumble, and Fast and Furious 6 is no longer the shiny new toy. I wonder if Now You See Me, which has defied expectations so far, will hold up better than most. It might.

So, let’s guestimate:

  1. Man of Steel - $117 Million
  2. This is the End – $24 Million
  3. Now You See Me – $11 Million
  4. The Purge – $9.3 Million
  5. Fast and Furious 6 – $9 Million

There’s a question mark on Man of Steel. It could outperform as its got the screen counts, but the rotten tomato meter doesn’t suggest it’s an out of the park success, though that could be for a number of reasons. Many kids (I’d wager most kids) are out of school, and this is one of the first weekends where many are free, which could lead to a surge for Superman. But we shall see. If MoS opens to less than a hundred, it’s going to be a problem.

What are you going to watch this weekend?