The Purge

Last weekend showed the start of a summer slump, which should end next Friday with the release of Man of Steel (which is already tracking to open over $100 Million dollars). This means it’s a good weekend to release something like The Purge, which is a low budget, high concept horror film, and maybe it was a good idea to open The Internship, which brought Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn back together. But the former should do better than the latter.

Though neither are exactly getting barn burning reviews, it’s been almost a decade since The Wedding Crashers, and in that time both Wilson and Vaughn have had their hits, but they aren’t as fresh as they once were. And if the people who were in their twenties and thirties watching Crashers in ’05, those people are now in their thirties and forties. But I think the killer is the product placement. The film is all about Google, and there’s no way that doesn’t rub people the wrong way. It may mean that the film paid for itself, but audiences have never really enjoyed films that masqueraded so directly as an advert. It helps explain why After Earth tanked.

but the big winner of the weekend will be The Purge, regardless if it comes in first or third place, simply because of the return on investment. The film has a listed production budget of $3 Million dollars. It should be able to double that Friday. Granted, that doesn’t include the advertising costs, but if the film does ten to twenty Million this weekend, it’s going to turn a profit.

As for the holdovers, Now You See Me has shown some life, so perhaps audiences like it.

So, let’s predict:

The Purge - $18.5 Million

Fast and Furious 6 – $17 Million

Now You See Me – $16 Million

The Internship – $15.5 Million

After Earth – $13.8 Million

And then Sunday we’ll talk about how right and wrong I am.

What are you going to watch this weekend?