Fast Five – Dwayne Johnson

Has the tide turned against The Hangover Part III? It seems likely as the previous movie opened to a $10 Million midnight gross, while the latest opened to a paltry (in comparison) $3 Million. Then again, that’s what Star Trek Into Darkness did as well in the same time frame the weekend before, and it got to $85 Million for it’s four day weekend. But then Part III has a five day opening. Apples don’t taste like oranges, though.

There are three wide releases this weekend. One is Epic, which comes from Fox/Blue Sky, who are known for the Ice Age and Rio franchises. This is such a strange release as Fox has been relatively quiet about this one on top of having picked up DreamWorks Animation recently. That Epic isn’t getting the full push suggests two things: One, they think the movie is bad (though reviews have been mostly positive), and two that there’s an internal power struggle going on now that Fox has two animation houses under their roof.

The Hangover grew its international audience on the second film, and though this film may top out around $120-$200 Million domestic, it may be outpaced by international if they don’t reject like it’s possible that American audiences will. If it’s a back end deal for the main players involved, this movie could be done on the reasonably cheap. One would assume that the Bangkok locations and salary bumps account for the previous film’s $80 Million dollar budget, but it’s also possible this film felt the bloat of two hits and cost $150 Million if everyone wanted to get paid up front. Numbers are all lies, but even if this underperforms, it should do over $300 Million worldwide.

But the big winner is going to be Fast and Furious 6, without question. The question is how big of a monster is it? The last film played well with audiences, and has been a cable favorite for a while. It’s possible we could see over $100 Million by the end of Memorial day weekend. But I’ll be back on Sunday to wrap it up. So let’s do three day predictions.

  1. Fast and Furious 6 - $75 Million
  2. Hangover 3 – $38 Million
  3. Star Trek 12 – $29.5 Million
  4. Epic – $25.5 Million
  5. Iron Man 3 – $19.6 Million

And then Sunday we’ll sort out the numbers. Epic could do better, Hangover could do better or worse, and I could be going high on FF6.

What are you going to watch this weekend?