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If G.I. Joe Retaliation had opened on its original launch date of June 29, 2012, we’d probably have already forgotten about it by  now. It’s also possible it would have been seen as weak next to Ted, would have fell hard in the face of The Amazing Spider-Man and would have died by the time The Dark Knight Rises opened. But now it’s finally here.

And it should easily win the weekend. We thought it was good junk food, and though it’s not going to garner a fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, it’s not the sort of film that needs critical word of mouth to succeed. It’s also a big studio movie, has an appealing cast, and though it is coming after some action movies that tanked, this definitely could do well enough.

And perhaps more importantly, it’s got way more room to breathe. The next big studio event film is Oblivion, which isn’t for a couple of weeks. Evil Dead is next week, 42 the week after. Neither of those sound like direct competition. Which means Retaliation should be able to clear $100 Million easily. And as the film is now in 3D, it should make more money, and should make more money in international markets, which will put it in at least the $300-$400 range for a low all-in total.

The Host never seemed to click in. I think everyone was nervous (maybe a couple months ago) that this might be the next Twilight. Yeah, that didn’t happen at all. It will get steamrollered.

There’s a new Tyler Perry movie. Guys, there’s a new Tyler Perry movie.

So numbers, let’s make them up:

  1. G.I. Joe 2 - $44 Million
  2. The Croods – $27.5 Million
  3. Olympus has Fallen – $16.5 Million
  4. Tyler Perry’s Temptation – $15.5 Million
  5. The Host – $14 Million

The Host is the spoiler of this conversation. It could go that much higher, but there’s no cultural heat around it, and frankly I forgot it was coming out this weekend. Let’s see if the teen girls its aimed at forgot as well.

What are you going to watch this weekend?