thecroodssneakpeek-11413

Though last year this weekend saw the release of The Hunger Games – which made a boatload of money by itself – the same weekend a year later proved to do pretty good without a gigantic blockbuster. Not only did The Croods open better than expected, but Olympus has Fallen bucked the trends of recent action movies and did well.

Film Weekend Per Screen Total
1 The Croods $44,700,000 $11,048 $44,700,000
2 Olympus has Fallen $30,500,000 $9,845 $30,500,000
3 Oz: The Great and Powerful $22,031,000 (-46.6%) $5,790 $177,559,000
4 The Call $8,700,000 (-49.2) $3,470 $30,904,000
5 Admission $6,446,000
$2,984 $6,446,000
6 Spring Breakers $5,000,000 (+1,801.1) $4,529 $5,407,000
7 The Incredible Burt Wonderstone $4,275,000 (-58.0) $1,353 $17,365,000
8 Jack the Giant Slayer $2,965,000 (-53.1) $1,158 $59,052,000
9 Identity Thief $2,545,000 (-42.4)1 $1,175 $127,727,000
10 Snitch $1,930,000 (-44.9) $1,068 $40,343,000

The Croods opened to twice as much as Rise of the Guardians, which is good news for the film and for Dreamworks. This means that the film could make it to $200 Million domestic, which would likely be the hope. With that and good home video the picture should be a nice hit, though it’s possible that it could crap out around $150 Million. At this point it’s hard to know if families like it, but it’s in a familiar place for a Dreamworks animated film.

In some ways the big winner this weekend is Olympus by opening as large as it did. Action movies are more likely to fall hard, so it’s possible the film will be done at $60-$70 Million, and there is direct (though not R-rated) competition with G.I. Joe: Retaliation opening next weekend. It’s possible the film could get over $100 Million domestic, and maybe international is decent, which would make it a winner.

Admission was a misfire, but it looked like it would be from the outset. Spring Breakers may not have expanded particularly well (the per screen isn’t that great), but it was made for two million, so if it does over ten million (which seems likely) not only will it be the most successful project that Harmony Korine‘s ever been involved with, it will have made its money back and then some. One wonders if some of the leads have a back end deal with this one. Oz is on a path to get over $200 Million, but that’s about it (it’s going to lose a lot of screen to G.I. Joe), and The Call is a nice B-movie hit. Everything else is just hanging out or dying slow.

Reality check: I was right that The Croods would do better than expected, that Spring Breakers wouldn’t get into the top five, and that Admission was a dud, but I underestimated Olympus. So, not a bad bit of guessing.

What did you watch this weekend?