It took a little over two months to get there, but it looks like we’re going to have the first blockbuster of 2013 with Oz: The Great and Powerful. Sorry Jack the Giant Slayer.

And how big will this prequel be? It’s hard to gauge how much interest there will be after the opening weekend, but Disney is looking at a large number to start with – at least around $70 Million – but it’s unknown if it will keep playing. Word of mouth is mostly positive, so it’s likely that it will get over $200 Million domestic. Complete collapse would mean somewhere in the $150 Million range, but it’s also possible the film could get over $300 Million, especially if opens closer to a nine digit figure.

But with a film of this scale, the film won’t be made or broken by its domestic gross. It needs international like nobody’s business, because the film surely cost in the $200 Million dollar range. And though sometimes a film can outperform internationally when domestic is pathetic, generally if a film does well here, it does well all over the world. And, of course, Disney wants people to think it’s a lot like their previous hit Alice in Wonderland. I thought that was a terrible movie, but it made over a billion dollars worldwide. That though had a lot to do with following in Avatar‘s wake. But Disney’s got to feel pretty secure about this film, as people still love the 1939 version of The Wizard of Oz.

Dead Man Down is also opening, and should die a quick death.

Here’s how I see the weekend:

  1. Oz: The Great and Powerful - $85 Million
  2. Jack the Giant Slayer - $11.5 Million
  3. Identity Thief – $6.9 Million
  4. Dead Man Down – $6.5 Million
  5. 21 and Over – $5 Million

And then Sunday we’ll check on our winners and losers.

What are you going to watch this weekend?