Now that we’re out of the Holiday season, Hollywood is taking a chance to breath and put their hand down their pants. There’s one wide release of a horror movie (Texas Chainsaw 3D), and two expansion runs of Oscar-almost rans (The Impossible and Promised Land). Which means it’s likely the top five won’t change much.

And with $240 Million already in the bank, it looks like The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey should be able to coast past $300 Million domestically. It’s going to do over $15 Million this weekend, which means it should be over $260 Million, and even with standard drops it should be able to crest three hundred. This is definitely a win for the title, but the question is if they won the battle but not the war. People came to this film because they love the originals. What happens when the second film hits in less than a year?

Django Unchained is currently at $82 Million domestic, which means its made 2/3rds of the money that Inglourious Basterds did in its entire run. That means it will be over $100 Million by weekend’s end and will be without question Quentin Tarantino‘s most successful movie. What’s interesting is how competitive it’s been with Les Miserables, which is still ahead (it’s at $84 Million). Mis should benefit more from weekends, though, but it’s hard to say if positive word of mouth is congealing. It doesn’t feel like an Oscar front runner. But it should get a number of nominations (it or Lincoln are likely to get the most), which may boost it. It’s hard to know how many nominations Django will get, but it may not need to play to that crowd, and it doesn’t seem like their kind of film anyway. Which probably means that Les Mis will play a little longer. All I know is I’ve seen Django twice, and I’m thinking about seeing it again this weekend.

Texas Chainsaw is good counter-programing for right now. Which means a good weekend and a quick death. So let’s look at some numbers.

  1. The Hobbit 1 - $17.6 Million
  2. Django Unchained - $17.5 Million
  3.  Les Miserables – $17 Million
  4. Texas Chainsaw 7 - $14 Million
  5. Parental Guidance – $8 Million

It’s very likely that either Les Miserables or Django will outperform The Hobbit this weekend, and it should be close. It’s also possible that Texas could do great Friday numbers because of the 3D and the lack of recent horror.

What are you going to watch this weekend?