So it’s a holiday five day weekend, and there are three new wide releases. Rise of the Guardians, Red Dawn and Life of Pi. But with The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 netting $140 Million last weekend, even a 70% slide would mean a $40 Million weekend, and it’s doubtful that these new pictures can take it.

What we’ve seen from the Wednesday numbers is that Rise opened the strongest of the new pictures, but also did less than five million dollars, though it’s in the best position to surge over the weekend as it’s aimed at kids. Perhaps today and Saturday it will be the number one film, but it’s also not based on a known property. We’d expect it to do okay, and it might play longer if audiences like it. So far the reactions have been mostly positive.

Red Dawn opened better than Pi, but it should be front loaded. No one seems to like Red Dawn, so – other than maybe teens who like some of the leads – it seems doomed. Pi could get stronger over the next couple days, but critics are divided, as they were on the book. It all depends on how much people like the ending. It has the benefit of 3D screens. The question is if it gets awards buzz. Some think it’s a best picture lock, so there’s that.

But the big thing is that Twilight still dominates, and that Bond crosses $200 Million over the weekend, which makes it the highest grossing of the franchise (unadjusted, natch).

So here’s our predictions:

  1. Twilight 5 - $43.5 Million
  2. Rise of the Guardians – $38.5 Million
  3. Skyfall - $28.5 Million
  4. Life of Pi – $19.5 Million
  5. Lincoln – $17.5 Million

That should be a great hold for Lincoln, which has the chance now of doing over $100 Million, which may also help with awards buzz.

What are you going to watch this weekend?