The final Twilight film is upon us. At least, maybe. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 2 is the last of the adaptations of the exceptionally popular franchise, but that doesn’t mean a spin off or a reboot might not be on its way in the near future. As we’ve seen with Star Wars, if there’s money to be made, then studios will mine for it.
As for this final chapter, expect a big opening weekend, but without 3D or Imax, there’s no way this can crash the record set earlier this year by The Avengers at $207 Million. The highest opening weekend so far in the franchise was New Moon, which made $142 Million in its three day. This should do more than that, simply because it’s the last, but there is a ceiling. It will be interesting to see if it can get close to the Batman films (The Dark Knight made $158 Million, Rises $161 Million) or even The Hunger Games, which did $152 Million. Harry Potter saw a 28% bump in its three day from Deathly Hallows Part 1 to its conclusion, so it’s possible we could see a similar rise for Breaking Dawn. That math would put this part 2 at $178 Million for the weekend, which seems high. But you never know.
I would target the film to open around $160 Million, which may be a higher estimate than some, but the metrics suggest there should be even more of a want to see for this opening weekend than the last picture which did $138 Million in its three day, and there should be enough screens out there for it to do that sort of business. It’s also shorter than most of these other blockbusters, with a running time under two hours. That means it will have more showtimes a day than any of the Batman movies. But there’s also a ceiling involved with this being simply for the fans. At the end of the day, the film should make nearly – if not over – $300 Million at the box office domestically, with an additional $400 Million plus from international audiences.
So, looking at those numbers, can you see why they’d want to keep going?
And our predictions for this weekend are:
- Breaking Dawn Part 2 – $162 Million
- Skyfall - $47.2 Million
- Wreck-it Ralph - $21.7 Million
- Lincoln - $16.5 Million
- Flight – $8 Million
Breaking Dawn is where the action is this weekend, no question, but people are still going to want to see Bond.
What are you going to watch this weekend?