When it comes to the numbers this week, there are now X factors that could make all predictions slightly off. And that’s what happens when you have a disaster like Hurricane Sandy. But it’s a crazy week in general between that and Tuesday’s election, and it’s hard to know if people will want to go to the movies or not.
That said, Disney’s Wreck-It Ralph should be a big winner this weekend. For a while DreamWorks had called the first week of November for its animated releases, while Disney would often favor closer to Thanksgiving or even December releases. The idea is that the film will play through the eight to nine weeks of the Holiday season. Of late, most films don’t last that long, and so getting through Thanksgiving is where the money will be made for Ralph, and after Hotel Transylvania‘s long run in the top five, it’s time for a new animated feature. Ralph has got until November 21, when Rise of the Guardians hits theaters. I guess Disney and DreamWorks swapped dates.
Word of mouth for Ralph is strong, so that should help, as should some nostalgia for games from parents. Expect the film to do over $30 this weekend, possibly over $40, though Sandy aftermath should hurt it.
Denzel Washington is usually a guaranteed performer, and it would be no shock if Flight ends up making $60 Million. But this isn’t the fun Denzel or the action Denzel of this year’s Safe House, it’s the serious performer Denzel, which may not attract as many people. It’s a weird film for audiences as there is no hook that makes it fun to watch. We live in an era where adults cannot be counted on for their attendance at movies, but even more so this would need large critical support to transcend Washington’s normal ceilings. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be around by the time award season starts hitting. Oh well. Paramount has limited the screens on this one, so mid teens is as good as it gets.
RZA’s The Man with the Iron Fists opens this weekend as well. There may be an audience for this, but kung fu movies haven’t been big in a while. Without a certain amount of buzz, this curio will likely do well enough to justify the expense, but make most of its money through home video/downloads.
So let’s make numbers:
- Wreck-it Ralph – $32.3 Million
- Flight – $12.5 Million
- Argo – $9.2 Million
- The Man with the Iron Fists – $8 Million
- Cloud Atlas - $4.4 Million
Atlas could fall out of the top five, and Hotel Transylvania could hold stronger, even in the face of direct competition. Audiences didn’t seem to give a lick for Atlas, though I’m sure it will eventually achieve some sort of cult status.
What are you going to watch this weekend?