Fall season is starting to kick into gear, and starting next week the real season begins of blockbusters and Oscar contenders (and some that are half one, half the other). This week the major releases are Chasing Mavericks, Cloud Atlas, Fun Size and Silent Hill: Revelations.

Let’s sort this list first. Chasing Mavericks is a studio dump, and a film that had its director replaced. Originally started by Michael Apted, it looks like Curtis Hanson (who helmed L.A. Confidential) was brought in to replace him. Such marks the film as a troubled production, which –when the studio isn’t spending $100 Million–means they can let it go. And so they shall.

Fun Size is one of those films that is likely expressly marketed to a certain audience, so it’s not like this site is going to be covering it on any regular basis, and its ads mostly run on children’s networks during children’s programming. Which means the movie could surprise if it’s got the tween market in its pocket. Bets on that?

Silent Hill: Revelation is a 3D sequel to a modestly successful horror film and a spin-off of a very successful video game. The first film didn’t leave much of an impression, so it’s hard to say who the audience is for this. It should cut off Paranormal Activity 4‘s legs though. The new horror film for Halloween weekend should have more juice than the tepidly received Paranormal film.

Cloud Atlas is a big, weird beautiful thing. It’s not necessarily a love it or hate it type film, but close. It has Tom Hanks, but not Hanks in audience’s comfort zone, and it’s hard to say that Hanks has the same hold over the box office as he did in the 1990′s. We hope it does well.

Ultimately this is a soft weekend in comparison to what’s coming, as there’s a blockbuster every week from now until the end of the year (saving the last Friday of November, which is usually considered run-off from the holidays). Will audiences find Cloud Atlas? Probably not. Will the academy? Probably not. But you never know.

So, let’s make up some numbers:

  1. Argo – $14.5 Million
  2. Silent Hill: Revelation - $13.7 Million
  3. Cloud Atlas – $12.7 Million
  4. Paranormal Activity 4 - $8.7 Million
  5. Fun Size - $7.5 Million

Yes, I’m calling for the hard to believe, that Argo flatlines and takes the top spot. Why not?

What are you going to see this weekend?