The Dark Knight Rises opened big but not so big that it broke any major records. But that too can be qualified in that in pure ticket sales it would be the #1 if – say – the film were in 3D.  TDKR may just make somewhere north of $450 Million domestic instead of trumping The Avengers. The film should make a billion dollars worldwide. But what about everything else?

Does anything survive in its aftermath, or will it also leave a wake of films like The Avengers? Though Avengers may have hurt films like Dark Shadows or Battleship, those movies were also not particularly well received, so there’s no evidence one way or another that it was Avengers that felled them.

So what does that say for The Watch? It’s a comedy, and it could be strong simply based on the performers. Word has been pretty mixed coming out of screenings, though, and Fox has had some trouble with the picture early on, having to change the name and change their marketing plan when the Travon Martin shooting happened. Many people may have avoided the opening weekend crowds with TDKR, and might dip their toe this weekend. With a weak marketing campaign The Watch should do $20 Million or so, but it looks like it will be gone quickly.

And there’s Step Up Revolution. Oh, that little picture. But it’s not real competition for anything.

So how much does TDKR fall? 50%? 60%? Probably closer to the latter, which is still a lot and lot of money.

So let’s do it:

  1. The Dark Knight Rises - $72 Million
  2. The Watch $19.5 Million
  3. Step Up Revolution – $14.7 Million
  4. Ice Age: For the Kids – $12.5 Million
  5. The Amazing Spider-Man – $6.5 Million

There is a possibility that a comedy with familiar faces could surprise, and Batman could go up higher if people were waiting to see it. But the order should be right on the money.

What are you seeing this weekend?