Sorry about the alliteration, but Men in Black 3 was conceived as a a blockbuster. Often when a film is a big huge thing it does near $100 million for its three day (sometimes more). Though MIB 3 may get to a near-$80 Million total by the end of the Memorial day weekend, this isn’t much of a win, which follows everything that’s come out post-Avengers.

Film Weekend Per Screen Total
1 MIB 3
$55,000,000 $12,947 $55,000,000
2 The Avengers $36,987,000 (-33.5%) $9,440 $513,672,000
3 Battleship $10,800,000 (-57.7%) $2,917 $44,300,000
4 The Dictator $9,600,000 (-44.9%) $3,185 $41,448,000
5 Chernobyl Diaries $8,000,000 $3,288 $8,000,000
6 Dark Shadows $7,515,000 (-40.3%) $2,208 $62,998,000
7 What to Expect When You’re Expecting $7,150,000 (-32.2%) $2,367 $22,171,000
8 The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $6,350,000 (+96.6%) $5,150 $16,553,000
9 The Hunger Games $2,750,000 (-6.8%) $1,935 $395,209,000
10 Think Like a Man $1,400,000 (-47.2%) $1,781 $88,272,000

The big news this weekend is that The Avengers crossed half a billion domestic, and will – without question – pass The Dark Knight on the all time list, likely at the start of next weekend. The Avengers is still a steamroller, and it should top out at $600, and I’d guess that they cross that round number just barely. But, post-holiday weekend, there’s going to be a sag at the BO, and probably a sense that it’s time to find a new shiny ball. But last I checked, tracking on Snow White was weak, so it may just be that nothing does well next weekend.

And that’s the interesting thing about this summer. If you take The Avengers out of the equation, this summer has been terrible so far. Only one film in the last three weeks has any chance of crossing $100 Million domestic, and that’s Men in Black. But there’s no silver lining to that, as the film is not going to cross $200 Million domestically, and next weekend it should fall at least 50% from this three day, which means it’s likely to do Men in Black 2 numbers, maybe a little less than that film’s $190 domestic.  Which is why international is a big deal. You can’t trust the reported budget, so it’s likely the film will have to do $600 worldwide to even turn a profit. Which is possible, and with video, etc. it will likely not lose money, but it’s not Will Smith‘s triumphant return.

Right now the chart’s mostly filled with misfires and disasters. The Dictator, Battleship and Dark Shadows are all going to need international business to break even – though that’s more and more the case these days, and Chernobyl Diaries is going to struggle to do much more than $25 Million with the standard horror business drops.

The Hunger Games is going to cross $400 Million at this point, and it looks like Think Like a Man is sinking too fast to get to $100. Marigold is doing well for what it is, and outside the top ten Moonrise Kingdom did exceptionally strong on four screens. We’ll see if it expands well, at this point The Royal Tennenbaums is Wes Anderson‘s most successful film at $52 Million.

Reality Check: My predictions were close-ish. I went a little high on MIB and Battleship, and a little low on The Avengers, but not too shaby.