The Avengers has so dominated the box office – and we’re looking at a holiday weekend – that it’s possible that Men in Black III might not put The Avengers into second place. It’s also inevitable by weekend’s end that Avengers will be over half a billion domestic. That said, it’s also possible that MIB3 could do a hundred over the four-day weekend.  There are variables at play.

With Men in Black, the question is: What is success? With all of its players, and a supposedly very expensive production, we could see the film do a half a billion worldwide and still not make money. When you’re talking about big studio tentpole releases the scales and measurements are different. Currently the film has no listed budget, but we’ve heard rumors that $300 Million or more is possible (even likely) because of its long shooting schedule and multiple re-shoots.

The film could open to $100 Million over the four day, and get over $200 domestic (maybe even $300 Million) and normally that would be a big hit. But the math says that the film will have to do over $600 Million worldwide to break even if it cost as much as it was rumored to. That’s a lot of money for a film that’s mostly a trifle.

And though we may see a near-$80 Million opening, does that even mean people care or wanted this film? Or is it just the new event movie? MIB is an odd franchise that lost a lot of goodwill with its second entry, and even if the film opens big, it may not be because of the name or the star. And if it opens to weak domestic numbers, expect Sony to pimp its international business.

Chernobyl Diaries is also opening. Yeah, no one’s going to even remember this film existed in two years.

So, numbers, what do they look like (for the three day)?

  1. MIB3 – $58.3 Million
  2. The Avengers – $32.8 Million
  3. Battleship – $12 Million
  4. Chernobyl Diaries – $9 Million
  5. The Dictator – $8.5 Million

The big surprise would be a surge from the men in black. Which is possible, but unlikely.

What are you going to see this weekend?