The summer season is a week away at this point, so it’s time to start making predictions about the biggest movies of the summer. These predictions are always going to be a just little off, but that’s the fun of making wildly inaccurate guesses months before we’ve even seen a film – sometimes you’re right. So here are the top ten films that are going to be trying to make more than $200 Million when they hit.
Top Five (The Easy Lay-ups):
1. The Dark Knight Rises (7/20):
The low on this film would be $400 Million, because this is looking to have somewhere around a $200 Million opening weekend. There is nothing that could stop this film, and all the footage presentations so far have suggested this is going to be a home run. This is the easiest prediction of the lot.
Grand Total: $500 Million
2. The Avengers (5/4):
The film is already tracking to do open bigger than The Hunger Games, so even though there’s a little bit of negative word, that’s not going to stop anyone from going to see this opening weekend. The question is if it’s going to be a little stunted by other films, but at this point nothing opening in the two weeks after looks like a challenger. So let’s say it gets to $400 Million.
Grand Total: $420 Million
3. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted (6/8):
The last two films made nearly $200 million, this one is in good shape to do a little more because of the 3-D boost. It’s going to be the safe kids’ movie of the summer.
Grand Total: $210
4. Snow White and the Huntsman (6/1):
Everything coming out on this film says it’s going to be big. Kristen Stewart may or may not bring her Twilight fans with her, but that trailer (and following Men in Black III) should be great for the movie.
Grand Total: $200 Million
5. Prometheus (6/8):
The biggest question with the film is whether it will be rated R or PG-13. The former might hurt the gross some (and possibly help Madagascar), but everything so far has been a big wow. The biggest strike against the film is that its predescessors haven’t been out of the park blockbusters, but this feels like the right time and right place.
Grand Total: $190 (but much bigger internationally)
Question Mark Wins:
6. Brave (6/22):
Though it may be one of the weakest performers in Pixar’s filmography since A Bug’s Life, that’s not going to stop this from doing well over $150 Million. Even if the film isn’t that great – or even if it is great – it feels like it’s time for Pixar to take a couple lumps. Such is the business.
Grand Total: $175 Million
7. The Bourne Legacy (8/3);
Grand Total: $170 Million
8. G.I. Joe: Retaliation (6/29):
I’d beg this higher if the last trailer didn’t install some doubts, but the combination of The Rock and Bruce Willis makes me think this is going to be huge regardless. And it’ll have the fourth of July as a second weekend buffer.
Grand Total: $170 Million
9. The Amazing Spider-Man(7/3):
If the reboot turns people off it’ll be after a couple of days. It is still Spider-Man, but the numbers will probably be lower domestically because of two factors: the rebooting, and The Dark Knight Rises right on its tail. They’ve got two weeks to make their money.
Grand Total: $160 Million
10. MIB3 (5/25):
This has a holiday weekend all to itself and a less than two hour run time. How quick could people turn against it? Perhaps it’s better than its rumored to be (and it’s rumored to be really bad). But even if it was great, it’s coming so late after the fact. The film will surely make $100 Million, the question is with a project this expensive if that’s a win.
Grand Total: $160 Million
Outliers (possible spoilers):
Ice Age: Continental Drift (7/13):
This franchise is much bigger internationally, and the last one showed a drop in numbers domestically. Still, it should do around $150 domestic with the 3-D bump.
Grand Total: $150 Million
It’s already playing well internationally, the question is how it does here. It should open to big-ish numbers, but the concept (that is: adapting a board game) may work against it more here than abroad.
Grand Total: $140 Million
Total Recall (8/3):
A question mark if there ever was one. There looks to be spectacle, but if this does way more business internationally, don’t be surprised. Still, it should get to a hundred million here.
Grand Total: $120 Million
Dark Shadows (5/11):
Are Johnny Depp and Tim Burton enough to do over $100 Million? Survey says: Maybe. This is an odd project, and Warner’s lack of hype (at least as a summer movie) suggests that they’re not going full press on this one. Still, the duo are formidable.
Grand Total: $100 Million
The Dictator (5/16), Neighborhood Watch (7/27), The Campaign (8/10):
One or more of these comedies is likely to do over $100 Million. I’d bet on The Campaign, but we haven’t seen much of it yet. Word out of CinemaCon is that The Dictator is funny – which the adds gave mixed signals about. Watch has already engendered some controversy, while The Campaign pairs Zach Galifianakis and Will Ferrell, so I wouldn’t bet against it.
That’s my picks for the biggies, what do you think?