You can tell it’s April because this week offers little excitement for the young white men who seem to be Hollywood’s primary target. They have to wait a couple weeks for the summer films, but in the meantime there’s The Lucky One with Zac Efron, Chimpanzee with… chimpanzees and Think Like a Man with Kevin Hart and Romany Malco. It’s fair to say none of these films will inspire action figures.

The Lucky One is the latest film from Nicholas Sparks, who’s become the go-to author for romance films that play on not so subtly hidden Christian themes. Zac Efron is a modest performer – though his Charlie St. Cloud did poorly in the scheme of things ($31 Million), it did make money – and between Efron and Sparks that should be enough to get this in the high teens.April is the time of truly disposable cinema, and this is the sort of film that in a year or two will be offered in a bundle of Warner Brother’s romance modern classics, or a Nicholas Sparks collection along with The Notebook. It’s the sort of film that may make money, but in three years, no one will remember anything about it.

The big spoiler this weekend would be Think Like a Man. With a mostly black cast, the film could hit if the audience responds, and we’ve seen some recent films aimed at black audiences exceed expectations. As for this year in black cinema so far there’s been Red Tails and Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds, both of which hit screens in the mid to high teens and this could follow that lead.

Disney is committed to release nature documentaries, and good on them for that. These films are likely very cheap to produce now that they’re shot digitally, and have a long shelf life in classrooms, etc. Chimpanzee should do less than ten million, it probably won’t crack the top five, but when most documentaries can barely make a million that’s not a bad total.

Otherwise, The Hunger Games has been around long enough that the normal percentage fall-offs mean it will open in second or third this weekend unless there was some reason for a resurgence or the competition is just that weak.

So let’s number it!:

  1. The Lucky One – $18.5 Million
  2. Think Like a Man – $16.7 Million
  3. The Hunger Games – $13.5 Million
  4. The Three Stooges – $9.5 Million
  5. The Cabin in the Woods – $8.3 Million

I could be going higher on the new pictures, but I think the ads for Man will give it a boost. Tracking may also be underrating the underage appeal of Efron and perhaps women who are too embarrassed to suggest they’ll sneak out to see it.

What are you going to watch this weekend?