Though it’s definitely the box office story of the week, John Carter flopping isn’t that big a deal – unless it leads to massive firings. This train was coming into the station slowly, and from the first trailer and poster there were questions if the studio ever figured out how to sell the picture. The answer is that they didn’t. Alas. And so The Lorax takes the weekend again.
|1|| Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
|3||Project X||$11,550,000 (-45.1%)||$3,781||$40,125,000|
|5||Act of Valor||$7,000,000 (-48.4%)||$2,372||$56,100,597|
|6||A Thousand Words||$6,350,000||$3,360||$6,350,000|
|7||Safe House||$5,000,000 (-32.3%)||$2,332||$115,800,000|
|8||The Vow||$4,000,000 (-33.5%)||$1,614||$117,614,000|
|9||This Means War||$3,750,000 (-32.6%)||$1,924||$46,889,000|
|10||Journey 2: The Mysterious Island||$3,685,000 (-43.7%)||$1,459||$90,716,000|
Though it placed second with $30 Million stateside, Disney is claiming that John Carter made $70 Million internationally this weekend, which would suggest that international will represent 70% of the film’s gross. Looking at recent $30 million openings, it could get to near $150 domestic, or as low as $60, depending on how audiences react. Likely it will be near $100 Million, though crossing over the nine digit mark domestically seems unlikely with such heavy March competition. Though it’s chances of being a franchise are DOA, it’s possible it could get to a worldwide total of half a billion, and that might keep the film from losing money when home video enters the picture. Might.
The Lorax is a clear winner. It’s already 2012′s highest grossing picture and though it may not hit $200 domestic, whatever concerns were had about its political content were brushed off by parents who saw Dr. Seuss’s name and took it at face value. When The Hunger Games hits Imax screens it will take a big hit, but for those theaters with multiple Imax screens, it seems more likely that they might shed John Carter over it.
Silent House was a cheap pick-up for its studio Open Road Films, so a $20 Million total could take it to profit. A Thousand Words couldn’t crack the top five and Paramount viewed it as an embarrassment, so it will probably be out of the top ten next weekend.
After that, everything is just playing. They’re already talking up a Journey 3, so even if the second film doesn’t get to $100 domestic, it’s in good shape. The Vow is still a huge hit for Screen Gems, and Safe House is doing enough business internationally to make it profitable.
It’s worth noting that The Artist cracked $40 Million this weekend, but that last weekend it was estimated to be in the top ten, but actuals showed that it was actually at 11th place, meaning the picture will have never entered the top ten any weekend of its run. As The Hurt Locker only grossed $17 Million, and Annie Hall made $38 Million, it won’t be the lowest grossing best picture winner.
Reality Check: For my predictions, I went a little low on Project X, and a little high on Silent House, but everything was in a million or two wiggle range, so I’ll hold my head up high this week. I like it when I’m close, but I never expect it. I’m never completely blind, but there are always X factors you can’t measure, so it’s often a case of knowing it’s going to rain, but not knowing how hard or how long.
What did you watch this weekend?