When you look at a list of the lowest grossing box office weekends of all time, you’ll find that the two months that pop up the most are January and September (and it’s often the last weekend of January, specifically). The reason for this is simple: The Superbowl. And it’s for film fans too – years ago, people would have just fast-forwarded through the commercials, now there are people who fast forward through the game. Last weekend The Grey trumped all, but now there are three new pictures to contend with it. Let’s see how it might shake out…

  • Chronicle is another in the found footage genre. I hate this genre. I hate it so much. Mostly because it’s a way for a studio to make a cheap movie without saying it’s a cheap movie. why not just shoot the thing on video, end stop? It’s all about appearances, and though the idea of a culture that constantly films itself is still a potent metaphor for modern living, right now it’s a gimmick that proves distracting because the films aren’t conceived completely as found footage pieces. There’s always stuff in them where the film is obviously cheating the gimmick. Granted, this happens all the time in the faux-doc television shows of late, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t annoying. Chronicle should open okay for what it is, and word of mouth is already rather good. Expect an over $10 opening.
  • The Woman in Black will show if people will watch a film starring Daniel Radcliffe that isn’t a Harry Potter film. Perhaps they will eventually, and this film won’t out and out flop, but he hasn’t made the transition yet.
  • Big Miracle has the most forgettable name in the history of cinema. Don’t expect much from it.

But that’s this weekend. It’s all about the game. We’ll be here providing some coverage of the commercials and stuff, so look for that.

But, numbers -wise, let’s do this:

  1. Chronicle – $12.5 Million
  2. The Grey – $11.7 Million
  3. The Woman in Black – $9.8 Million
  4. Big Miracle – $6.8 Million
  5. Underworld 4 – $5.9 Million

The new pictures could do a little better than I’m predicting. The lowest grossing #1 picture of the last five years is Bangkok Dangerous with $7.8 Million. We should see better numbers than that.But still…

What are you going to watch this weekend?