After last weekend‘s surprising show from The Devil Inside, what may be most interesting this weekend is to see how steep the decline is on the film. 70% seems likely, but it’s possible the film could fall even further. January is not the bad movie dumping ground it once was, so it will be interesting to see how well Beauty and the Beast and Contraband fare against Joyful Noise. Let’s start guessing, shall we?

After The Lion King reissue opened to a $30 Million, it’s a little harder to gauge how Beauty can do in comparison. When The Lion King was re-released to theaters it was about to be reissued on DVD and Blu-ray, while Beauty and the Beast is already out again on both formats, and so people may have bought it not knowing that this was coming. In fact, the film was originally post-converted to 3-D specifically for Blu-ray, and the theatrical release was done in response to The Lion King‘s numbers. Disney has had a long history of reissuing titles theatrically, though home video changed how they handled it. 3-D seems to give them a new license, though it’s hard to know if 3-D will continue to be viable in five years to the point that we get something like Bambi or Dumbo in 3-D.

Contraband is suppsoedly better than it looks (it looks like a movie released in January), but perhaps the wave of would-be Takens means that we’re going to get some action films not driven by special effects in early part of the year from now on. Mark Wahlberg is a steady performer and smart with material, so perhaps he can be a draw for this. But realistically the wheelhouse has to be his other attempts at action like Max Payne or Shooter, both of which did in the $40′s. Perhaps that’s a win for the film, though he’s not a bigger draw internationally.

Joyful Noise is the sort of film that can below my radar, because it’s not marketed at or near me. Admittedly casting both Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton gives the film a greater percentage of audience to draw from, so perhaps it’ll be a success. And with films that aren’t targeted at the standard moviegoer  – if they work on audiences – don’t follow normal box office patterns. And what better place for a sneak attack than now? I wouldn’t expect much, but films like Joyful Noise sometimes work an audience over.

So numbering for the three day goes like this:

  1. Beauty and the Beast - $26.7 Million
  2. Contraband – $15.5 Million
  3. Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol - $14.5 Million
  4. Joyful Noise – $12.5 Million
  5. The Devil Inside - $8.8 Million

Monday is the last major holiday for a while, so enjoy the four day weekend if you’ve got it.

What are you going to see this weekend?