Disney has spent a ridiculous amount of money promoting their upcoming 3D flick, Tron Legacy. The film has been at San Diego Comic-Con three years in a row, and billboards started popping up this summer even though the movie doesn’t open until mid-December. Add an over the top viral campaign and multiple preview screenings and you’ve got one of the most expensive marketing campaigns ever. Unfortunately, that still might not be enough according to some box office tracking reports.

THR claims that Tron Legacy could make as little as $35 million dollars its first three days of release. That’s not a number that you would expect from a tentpole of this stature. “An opening well north of $50 million would seem necessary to put the $200 million picture on a path to profitability.” Even though tracking estimates aren’t always on the money, they are generally in the right ballpark.

You might be asking yourself, “Why would Tron bring in so little?” Well, even though the original film has this huge cult fanbase it wasn’t a commercial hit when it was first released. If our memory serves us correctly the video game was actually more popular than the movie itself.

Also, some of the marketing may be going over the general public’s heads. Some people don’t even know that it’s a film, they think it’s a new video game that’s coming out. It’s been almost 30 years since the original was released. That’s an entirely new generation that has no idea what “Tron” is. During these next couple weeks Disney should definitely try to broaden their campaign to those untouched viewers. They’ll need that audience revenue to compensate the film’s $200 million budget.

Do you think Tron Legacy will be a dud at the box office? How much do you think it will make?